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How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

RAM

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BBC or Bloomberg ... really it doesn't matter. I am giving you the SOURCE information - the actual full details of each research effort.. Often journalists hear "human trials" and they write up that it is at the last stage before approval - which is wrong. Human testing stages are: pre-clinical, phase1, phase2, phase3.

The actual status of all vac-candidates are given in these 2 links :

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine : COVID-19
WHO : Draft landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines

As at today - the effort from Gamaleya Institute is in Phase 1 .... and they expect that completed on 05 Aug 2020. If journalists cannot read those details - it doesn't alter the facts.
Never let the facts get in the way of a paper-selling or click-bait headline after all!

A bit like the CSELR in Sydney - actually cuts public transport passenger capacity between Kingsford/Randwick & Central/Circular Quay in each direction during the morning peak hour by over 10,000 vs the 20 bus routes to be eliminated! Yet TfNSW & Gladys claim otherwise even though the State Auditor General confirmed otherwise.

But did provide excuse to rezone for 18+ story high rise along its route (including State Govt plans for on Randwick racecourse revealed in July 2013).

Really is galling when you sometimes have to agree with narcissists about fake news! Maybe we go back to calling it propaganda instead?
 

OATEK

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Never let the facts get in the way of a paper-selling or click-bait headline after all!

A bit like the CSELR in Sydney - actually cuts public transport passenger capacity between Kingsford/Randwick & Central/Circular Quay in each direction during the morning peak hour by over 10,000 vs the 20 bus routes to be eliminated! Yet TfNSW & Gladys claim otherwise even though the State Auditor General confirmed otherwise.

But did provide excuse to rezone for 18+ story high rise along its route (including State Govt plans for on Randwick racecourse revealed in July 2013).

Really is galling when you sometimes have to agree with narcissists about fake news! Maybe we go back to calling it propaganda instead?
Won't be many international travellers affected by the light rail though!
 

dajop

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cuts public transport passenger capacity between Kingsford/Randwick & Central/Circular Quay in each direction during the morning peak hour by over 10,000 vs the 20 bus routes to be eliminated!
Rather prescient, given how 2020 has worked out. What did they know was coming that the rest of us didn't? ;) :p
 

RAM

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Won't be many international travellers affected by the light rail though!
The way things are going, as a % of international passengers leaving Sydney... ;)

The route actually is expected now the Kingsford line is open as well & post CV traffic declines (= doubling of frequency to 1 every 4 minutes in each direction, so impact on intersections every 120 seconds on avg....) to cause cascading congestion (RTA modelling unsing SCATS) system.

Which will impact on M5 east, Eastern distributor, Western distributor etc etc. So for travellers heading to Sydney Airport will face extended delays, possibly leading to international flight delays....

A bit like pulling on one strand in a spider's web.

Or with CV - who (in the broader community) knew that over 80% of all pharmaceuticals (legal drugs) are made using Chinese produced ingredients?

Linkages can be amazing.

But used the reference to the CSELR to illustrate the degree of spin vs factual statements by the politicians.
 
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seanQLD

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Newbie and first post, hopefully did right.

Even though more people and funding in medical history is going into COVID 19 vaccinology, I am pessimistic we will ever get one.

Assuming we successfully eradicate COVID 19 from this country by end of 2020, and this may occur given the current levels of control and pain happening Australia wide, my question is how will future international travel from Australia ever occur or be allowed IF A VACCINE IS NEVER FOUND, AND MOST OF THE PLANET HAVE WAVES OF COVID 19 INFECTIONS? (Let's not use visiting travellers coming into Australia just to simplify question and any responses).

1) THIS REQUIRES TECHNOLOGY NOT YET AVAILABLE - BEING INSTANT, RELIABLE AND NON INVASIVE COVID 19 TEST - Will we need a COVID 19 negative 'pass' certificate available prior to airport arrival/check-in/boarding? Let's use Japan as this example, going to watch Olympics in July 2021, with Japan having very limited movement restrictions, but still have COVID 19 outbreaks but not enough to cancel Olympics. When I land at Tokyo, as part of going through immigration do I get another test and if negative I can enter Japan as a tourist (if test positive get sent back to Australia at my cost)? Upon return to Australia in August 2021 do I get the same test done at incoming Australian returning immigration, negative all good, but if positive I get sent to 14 day quarantine (internment camp/hospital)?

2) ASSUMING ABOVE TESTING IS NOT HELD - I may be able to get COVID 19 clearance test prior to leaving Australia, and this may be good enough to enter Japan, but will I automatically need to 14 day Quarantine at my cost in Government controlled hotel on return?

3) What about the old long long weekend 4 night Bali trip, can't be doing that then 14 days quarantine afterwards. Really feel for the Balinese people with what they are going through without tourism income.

If no vaccine, is this the end of international travel? You'll never be able to eradicate this, and herd immunity will take a decade or more. NZ and Australia better equipped than most to eradicate, but Europe is a massive landlinked continent, and even if one country clears COVID 19, within a couple of months they could have 100's or 1,000's of cases again.

Note - I have fully paid travel into Berlin out of Athens end of Sept this year which won't happen, hoping to get refunds out of Singapore Airlines, smaller ones from Wizz and Alitalia, some Agoda hotels and AirBNB. Hoping to re-do something similar July 2021, crossed fingers!
I agree with your post, and the view that we may never have a widely available and proven-effective covid19 vaccine (the adjectives are significant) . My assessment ranges between pessimism and cautious optimism.

1. Yes !! an instant test/test-result would change the world as much, if not more, than a vaccine. That is a technology that can not come soon enough. And that could enable the 4-day Bali weekend trip.

2. About Japan Olympics and quarantine - as per your hypothetical : Another possibility is a regimen/protocol of people doing the test-then-quarantine in their own countries before arrival. Such a protocol would need to be strictly administered and trusted by both countries. But, I think, it is more likely than 100s of 1000s of people all arriving in Tokyo and all requiring quaratine there - at the same time .

3. Another variation on the arrive-then-quarantine that is already being done in some countries, is this: You arrive, go into guarded quarantine and a test is performed on day 1. When the result comes in - say, on day 3 - if it is negative you are released from quarantine at that time. I know the Australian system "14 days regardless of test result" is the gold standard. But the "release on negative test result" is a variation that is being used elsewhere, and is administratively simpler to implement.

4. Another possibility for inbound-quarantine is the model from EU and UK.... and also announced by Japan (but not yet in use in Japan) . In that model there is a so called "green-list" of countries that have zero or acceptably low case numbers. If you arrive from a green-list country there is no quarantine for you. Australia was in the green-list in June, I am not sure if the recent outbreak in Victoria has changed that status.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I can’t recall seeing this anywhere, but is there a window between catching CV and a test being able to pick that up? For example, get CV at a restaurant the night before, but a test the next morning would still show negative? If so, how would this affect the accuracy of rapid testing? And wouldn’t quarantine still be required?
 

seanQLD

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I can’t recall seeing this anywhere, but is there a window between catching CV and a test being able to pick that up? For example, get CV at a restaurant the night before, but a test the next morning would still show negative? If so, how would this affect the accuracy of rapid testing? And wouldn’t quarantine still be required?
Yes !



" The researchers estimated that those tested with SARS-CoV-2 in the four days after infection were 67% more likely to test negative, even if they had the virus. "
 

seanQLD

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More miss-information and click-bait editting from Bloomberg and Russia

1597199494428.png

has "registered" hmmmm... whatever that means ? Certainly does not mean it is PROVEN and TESTED , nor that it is available to the public (nor should it be)...

The reality - even says it that article - that vaccine candidate (from Gamaleya Institute) has just entered Phase3 trials ... which by their very nature take 8-10 month or more. It is not some secret development effort. It is being tracked, just like the other 200+ research efforts, by WHO and London Medical School. It is the 7th to enter Phase3 trials. And is quite a long way behind the leaders. The first to complete Phase3 trials (as opposed to begin P3) will be the Oxford-AstraZeneca team (Sept 2021)...

Perhaps the article is written for those who want to take a vaccine that has not completed the standard testing protocols and proven safe and effective... The usual tracking websites cover "which will be ready first", and not "which will be available before it is proven safe and effiective, ie. before it is ready"...

Overall, this seems like irresponsible journalism to me. YMMV.
 

drron

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davistev

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Australia needs to seriously consider updating how it manages travel movement now that the medical profession knows a lot more about the virus and how it spreads than they did back in March.

I think it is obvious that if Australia is looking for zero infections then the borders will never open unless a vaccine is found to work effectively. This of course is an unacceptable situation for the long term.

It will be a difficult decision for the federal government to make as the media suggests that most voters want the borders closed no matter what the economic effects are. Perhaps, a middle ground will need to be found to balance the needs of the economy.

My solution as an armchair expert is:
1) Expand quarantine options. The hotels and flights are empty so it would seem obvious to do the following. Train hotel operators with personel who know what they are doing in conjunction with offering more than just a room and three squares. (perhaps executive apartments, quest apartments for families / couples). As another option, allow home quarantine with an electronic ankle bracelet to deter people from leaving their property. It work for convicted criminals so I do not see why there would be any more risk for law abiding residents. Final option is to allow people coming in from low risk areas to take an airport Covid 19 test. (New Zealand)

2) After we have tens of thousands of quarantine options, Priority should be given to Australian residents and then gradually open up to people entering Australia to include international students and new migrants.

3) Allow all Australian residents to leave Australia without restriction. To return, they must adere to the same re-entry requirement as above.

Accept that people have a level of personal responsibility here. Wear a mask, keep your distance and wash your hands. If you are from a high risk group, take greater responsibility for your own health by reducing your interactions.

When we went into lockdown back in March the goal was to flatten the curve so that the hospitals would not be overwhelmed. The curve has now flattened (except Vic) but we need an exit strategy for an economy with Covid-19. To continue with the current international border closure is akin to destroying much of the economy and many familes for no logical reason other than to placate the masses of scared voters.
 

drron

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With the quarantine option policed more effectively either with the elactronic bracelet or GPS tracking.Beats putting the whole community into lockdown.
Plus enough of a penalty to prevent quarantine breaches.
 

RAM

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Not a statistical analysis (yet) but it seems as if the +ve cases announced each day in NSW for Hotel Quarantine, on average, seems to reflect a 1+% positive per 100 tests conducted (based on max of 350/day arrivals each day).

vs the daily NSW testing figures of 0.1 to 0.2% otherwise.

There are not many countries in the world with as high a figure as 1% or more - which would seem to call into question who's getting the golden tickets to enter at the moment?
 
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oz_mark

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When we went into lockdown back in March the goal was to flatten the curve so that the hospitals would not be overwhelmed. The curve has now flattened (except Vic) but we need an exit strategy for an economy with Covid-19. To continue with the current international border closure is akin to destroying much of the economy and many familes for no logical reason other than to placate the masses of scared voters.
The goal was to flatten the curve. But it also supposed to buy the states time to put processes and procedures in place to test, track and trace.

It is pretty clear that apart from NSW, no other state has any faith in their ability to contain and track outbreaks.
 

DC3

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The US currently has 2.5m active cases in a population of 328m . That's 0.76%.
Maybe increase the rate of testing. See what that does. 😉

Edit: Possibly up to 40% of the USA population believes COVID to be a hoax, so no tests for them.
 

DC3

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Can't do that! I have read many reports in certain media that more testing causes more infection, the numbers just go up. Less testing, the numbers come down. ;)
POTUS has his finger on the pulse.
 

p--and--t

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More miss-information and click-bait editting from Bloomberg and Russia

View attachment 224950

has "registered" hmmmm... whatever that means ? Certainly does not mean it is PROVEN and TESTED , nor that it is available to the public (nor should it be)...

The reality - even says it that article - that vaccine candidate (from Gamaleya Institute) has just entered Phase3 trials ... which by their very nature take 8-10 month or more. It is not some secret development effort. It is being tracked, just like the other 200+ research efforts, by WHO and London Medical School. It is the 7th to enter Phase3 trials. And is quite a long way behind the leaders. The first to complete Phase3 trials (as opposed to begin P3) will be the Oxford-AstraZeneca team (Sept 2021)...

Perhaps the article is written for those who want to take a vaccine that has not completed the standard testing protocols and proven safe and effective... The usual tracking websites cover "which will be ready first", and not "which will be available before it is proven safe and effiective, ie. before it is ready"...

Overall, this seems like irresponsible journalism to me. YMMV.
Maybe you just misread. What they meant to say was a Russian vaccine is ready [for gullible guinea pigs for a rushed testing cycle to see if it kills them or not and a set of doctored results to be published]
 
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MEL_Traveller

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Maybe you just misread. What they meant to say was a Russian vaccine is ready [for gullible guinea pigs for a rushed testing cycle to see if it kills them or not and a set of doctored results to be published]
To be fair, a professor at Flinders uni in South Australia said his vaccine was also ready, at that same time, to be rolled out to people in nursing homes. Not really fair to pan the Russians and not our own!
 

p--and--t

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To be fair, a professor at Flinders uni in South Australia said his vaccine was also ready, at that same time, to be rolled out to people in nursing homes. Not really fair to pan the Russians and not our own!
To be fair, you shouldn't have assumed I had read anything about some professor at Flinders Uni.
 

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