Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes, agree that the two key measures around vax rates are yet to be determined, and are only partly connected. Death rates in line with flu, or not too disparate can be argued as likely to gain community acceptance. It is a "known" factor if we consider it against flu.

But hospital beds used just for covid-19 patients is the unknown. And the point at which vaccinations prevent overloading hospitals is an unknown, and will only become clearer over time. The 70% and 80% vax marks will allow some measurement, and it may result in the rate at which infections are within capacity might be much higher. The choice then may be to continue to apply restrictions (eg mask wearing), or grow the health system to meet demand for services.

Yes agree. And yes hospitalisations from the flu will also rise, though probably not till next flu season now.

Unlocking at 70% and 80% may be necessary to test the models and bring greater clarity around the whole subject matter.

Not sure that I personally would want to be the guinea pig jurisdiction doing it at 70%.

Moreso if it is commencing that with active spread and many hospitalisations, as that in essence removes your safety margin as one's hospitals are already under the pump.

Of course once NSW actually reaches 70% fully vaxxed it will know what its hospitalisations are at that time, and that will assist in informing its decision at that time. If cases have actually waned then all well and good. But if they have kept growing then not so good.



I know from my relatives and friends who worked at hospitals when cases in hospitals were rife that it is a very negative experience, and not just due to covid, but also because they fully appreciate all the other health issues that are just building.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The slowing will be held up as an example of why curfews are effective and must be invoked at the drop of a hat

Though curfews have not been commonly used in Vic.

Despite some of the rhetoric they have only been brought in as part of a range of measures when other measures were not working well enough, and only when it was deemed that other measures were teetering and the situation was deemed as being precarious . ie At the height of Vic Second Wave and now.

So it is more are one's restrictions slowly things enough? If not, then curfew is but one measure that may or may not be used.

 

[OATEK]

Not sure that I personally would want to be the guinea pig jurisdiction doing it at 70%.

......

Of course once NSW actually reaches 70% fully vaxxed it will know what its hospitalisations are at that time, and that will assist in informing its decision at that time. If cases have actually waned then all well and good. But if they have kept growing then not so good.

I think we in NSW have already been volunteered to test the model!! You should be safe.

 

[justinbrett]

Yes agree. And yes hospitalisations from the flu will also rise, though probably not till next flu season now.


Not sure that I personally would want to be the guinea pig jurisdiction doing it at 70%.

Moreso if it is commencing that with active spread and many hospitalisations, as that in essence removes your safety margin as one's hospitals are already under the pump.

Of course once NSW actually reaches 70% fully vaxxed it will know what its hospitalisations are at that time, and that will assist in informing its decision at that time. If cases have actually waned then all well and good. But if they have kept growing then not so good.



I know from my relatives and friends who worked at hospitals when cases in hospitals were rife that it is a very negative experience, and not just due to covid, but also because they fully appreciate all the other health issues that are just building.

NSW has never said it would fully open up at 70%. It was 80%. Exactly the same as what Dan Andrews has been saying. Some relief at 70% yes, but not "let it rip".

In any case, NSW is vaccinating over 1% a day. There will be about 2 weeks difference between 70% and 80% as long as people keep stepping up (and given first dose is going to hit 60% next week, I have no doubt they'll get to 80% without slowing down). I don't think it will make much difference in the end.

ICU for covid is currently only using around 8% of NSW ICU beds - so let's not get carried away here.

There is also a lag between cases and hospitalisations and yet again for deaths, so current hospitalisation and deaths is off a much lower vaccination rate. This will progressively improve, but offset by more cases - constrained by continued lockdown. We're inside a month for 80% single vax which will have a big impact on hospitalisation and transmission.

 

[N860CR]

ICU for covid is currently only using around 8% of NSW ICU beds - so let's not get carried away here.

Sadly, there seem to be some people who believe ICU beds should be sitting empty. Much like the dedicated COVID wards.

 

[OATEK]

Disappointed about the curfew decision. Will affect my family negligibly..

Though curfews have not been commonly used in Vic.

The curfew argument reminds me of my 30 years experience in the NSW Public Service. At one time I was involved in a major restructure which was designed with one purpose in mind, to abolish all positions in the branch and ensure that one existing member of the branch would not find a home in the new structure. 18 people having to reapply, compete with candidates from across the broader public sector, all for the purpose of putting one person on the unattached list. That person would then sit in a bit of spare office space somewhere in the wider government universe until their 18 months was up, and they could be terminated (unless someone ignored all the warnings and offered them a job somewhere else).

So back to today, the police have intelligence that some "young males" in the LGAs of concern are going out at night in contravention of the orders, and call a curfew on perhaps 1m people.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Sadly, there seem to be some people who believe ICU beds should be sitting empty. Much like the dedicated COVID wards.

I see your point. Though empty COVID wards mean no medical suffering, but it doesn't mean no suffering at all.

There is probably a balance that is about right (absurd curfews excepted) for now. Every day that passes with more vaccines in arms though, the balance tips only one way...

 

[N860CR]

There is probably a balance that is about right (absurd curfews excepted) for now. Every day that passes with more vaccines in arms though, the balance tips only one way...

Don't disagree at all. The previous restrictions were probably right and just needed to be softened from the end of next week (ie: allow two visitors to a home, outdoor dining for vaccinated). To further harshen them, though, is questionable at best.

 

[andye]

Sadly, there seem to be some people who believe ICU beds should be sitting empty. Much like the dedicated COVID wards.

Empty ICU beds are often filled by people having complex surgery (as part of monitoring closely so not just ones with complications)-a reasonable proportion of which is on hold in NSW public system hospitals

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So back to today, the police have intelligence that some "young males" in the LGAs of concern are going out at night in contravention of the orders, and call a curfew on perhaps 1m people.

Which probably is why they have only been used when people are not meant to be out and about late at night anyway. So a curfew is not one of the first restrictions that will be gone to.

The only real key difference is that people cannot shop late at night. Pubs, restaurants, theatres, gyms etc are already all closed and household visits are also banned. There is very little that one can legitimately do anyway.

 

[pagingjoan]

I think we're watching different press conferences.

Serious, yes. Stressed and emotional? No, certainly less than other days.

Blunt and direct? yes.

Dan Andrews? Are you kidding yourself?

But overall, very positive. Vaccinate and this will be over soon is the message.

Headline in TND:
"Kerry Chant close to tears as she begs Sydneysiders to stick by harsh rules"

 

[Lynda2475]

The latest deaths are quite telling. More and more people in the vulnerable age groups who have “had one dose”. Why one? Because they didn’t pull their finger out when they were eligible and elected to wait until they saw a risk.

True and one of todays cases had had zero doses despite being in 80s and in aged care, so eligible since Feb.

Some in this thread calling for deaths not to be discussed at the pressers, but its important to highlight how those choosing not to get vaccinated are the ones who are dying.

Headline in TND:
"Kerry Chant close to tears as she begs Sydneysiders to stick by harsh rules"

Wow such fiction.

 

[burmans]

Equally the Vic experience could possibly be held up as evidence curfew doesn’t work. In reality there are far too many factors in play and too few data points to realistically make any serious extrapolation of cause. Not that this will stop some.

 

[jakeseven7]

No more lowest prices are only the beginning

——

All Sydney Bunnings stores to close​

All Bunnings stores across Sydney will shut to the general public after government restrictions forced the retail giant to close outlets in hotspot areas.

From Monday, stores will only be open for trade customers with retail customers able to access online and contactless click and collect services.

As it happened: State lockdown extended for one month as NSW records 642 new local COVID-19 cases, four deaths; Victoria, ACT cases continue to grow

NSW will make coronavirus vaccines mandatory for all health workers, Victorian authorities are concerned about small transgressions in Melbourne and everyone over the age of 16 will be eligible for their recommended COVID-19 jab by the end of the month.

www.theage.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

It's fully detailed in the Doherty modelling for a variety of vaccination scenarios (cases, hospitalisations, ICU, deaths).
I'm not convinced OP has actually read it.

Yes it is all fully detailed as are all the assumptions. And as you have read it you should know why the Doherty Modelling does not apply to reaching Phase B (80%) with a high level of community cases.

ie In the Doherty Report the modelled scenarios to get to Phase B are all premised on the seeding of infections by only 30 individuals.

Epidemic simulations assume a population size of 24 million. Infection outputs reflect the range of results observed across 20-30 separate model runs for each scenario. We assume that a single outbreak involving 30 individuals initiates community transmission at the time of transition to Phase B, once target vaccine coverage is achieved. Each simulation is run for 180 days after this initiating date. As immunisation rollout is ongoing, achievement of future vaccine targets is indicated as relevant, in relation to evolving epidemics.​

So if NSW get back only 30 individual cases, and also if the other assumptions detailed in the report are also valid then yes the Doherty Modelling is relevant. If not then it simply isn't.

 

[jakeseven7]

I wonder if anyone will turn up this time?

———

NSW police to be out in force to prevent lockdown protests​

More than 1400 police officers will be deployed across Sydney on Saturday to disrupt a protest being planned by anti-lockdown activists.

The officers will be drawn from the ranks of local police from around Sydney, the public order and riot squad, the dog and mounted unit, traffic and highway patrol, transport command and PolAir.

As it happened: State lockdown extended for one month as NSW records 642 new local COVID-19 cases, four deaths; Victoria, ACT cases continue to grow

NSW will make coronavirus vaccines mandatory for all health workers, Victorian authorities are concerned about small transgressions in Melbourne and everyone over the age of 16 will be eligible for their recommended COVID-19 jab by the end of the month.

www.smh.com.au

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

No more lowest prices are only the beginning

——

All Sydney Bunnings stores to close​

All Bunnings stores across Sydney will shut to the general public after government restrictions forced the retail giant to close outlets in hotspot areas.

From Monday, stores will only be open for trade customers with retail customers able to access online and contactless click and collect services.

As it happened: State lockdown extended for one month as NSW records 642 new local COVID-19 cases, four deaths; Victoria, ACT cases continue to grow

NSW will make coronavirus vaccines mandatory for all health workers, Victorian authorities are concerned about small transgressions in Melbourne and everyone over the age of 16 will be eligible for their recommended COVID-19 jab by the end of the month.

www.theage.com.au

Wonder why they decided to go beyond the rule....

 

[Must...Fly!]

Who wants more rules and restrictions to have to follow?

Here in Melbourne it seems like that is trending toward inevitability;

Says the Herald Sun;

Restrictions on childcare, exercise and a statewide lockdown are being discussed in a meeting of senior Victorian ministers.

Feels like the government is playing Russian roulette with the trust and buy in from the community.

 

[pagingjoan]

Wow such fiction.

Not sure what you mean by that.
It certainly was the headline. So not fiction, at all.

And I did watch the media conference, and commented afterwards - well before seeing the headline - that I thought that she was on the verge of tears.

So, no. Not fiction.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

NSW has never said it would fully open up at 70%.

I was replying to OATEK. Unlocking at 70% and 80%

OATEK said:​

Unlocking at 70% and 80% may be necessary to test the models and bring greater clarity around the whole subject matter.​

It was a discussion point.