As I mentioned earlier, the average turnout per electorate is about 91-92% based on past elections.For those who want to consider an learned alternative to the IPCC should read the NIPCC commentary
Otherwise, it looks like increasingly the Coalition will maintain the same seats from 2016 -78. As the electoral boundaries were redistributed after the last election, notionally the Coalition had to win seats to maintain status quo. Which it did.
Why would Cowan be still in the doubtful list and not Bass?
In Bass the AEC say they have counted 91.3%, so only expecting a dribble of votes from here. with Libs leading by 500+, so unlikely to see major change to the lead.
In Cowan ALP lead by 836 votes, but only 81% counted, so another 10% or 9,000 or so votes potentially floating around. If pre-polls favour Libs, then they could make up the difference.
Similarly in Lilly only 82% counted, a lead of 822 to ALP, and perhaps as many as 10,000 votes still to count.
In Macquarie, with 88% counted the Libs have a lead of 148, which has been inching up over last few days, with only a couple of thousand still potentially to count.