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2019 Federal Election Discussion

OATEK

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For those who want to consider an learned alternative to the IPCC should read the NIPCC:) commentary

Otherwise, it looks like increasingly the Coalition will maintain the same seats from 2016 -78. As the electoral boundaries were redistributed after the last election, notionally the Coalition had to win seats to maintain status quo. Which it did.

Why would Cowan be still in the doubtful list and not Bass?
As I mentioned earlier, the average turnout per electorate is about 91-92% based on past elections.

In Bass the AEC say they have counted 91.3%, so only expecting a dribble of votes from here. with Libs leading by 500+, so unlikely to see major change to the lead.

In Cowan ALP lead by 836 votes, but only 81% counted, so another 10% or 9,000 or so votes potentially floating around. If pre-polls favour Libs, then they could make up the difference.

Similarly in Lilly only 82% counted, a lead of 822 to ALP, and perhaps as many as 10,000 votes still to count.

In Macquarie, with 88% counted the Libs have a lead of 148, which has been inching up over last few days, with only a couple of thousand still potentially to count.
 

Quickstatus

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I was looking at the numbers in the Senate and so far the coalition have 34 and need 39 to pass legislation. Scomo will need to stay on good terms with a few others to pass legislation.
It’s a good thing to seek consensus
 

serfty

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I was looking at the numbers in the Senate and so far the coalition have 34 and need 39 to pass legislation. Scomo will need to stay on good terms with a few others to pass legislation.
After the 2016 election the Liberal/National Coalition required at least nine additional votes to pass legislation an increase of three from beforehand. If no support from Labor or Greens they needed 9 votes of 11 other crossbenchers.

If the coalition end up with 34 and current trends otherwise continue they will need 5 of 6.

Note that the QLD senate is not settled and the coalition may end of with 35 senate seats (they are 'ahead').

 
Last edited:

Moody

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Jones schooled the rest of the Q&A panel - the Australian journalist is a lunatic leftist and the business representative trotted out boring PC cliches. None were able to prove Jones wrong and should be embarrassed about their juvenile approach to debate.
Those that watched the show will find that hilarious .... and slightly sad.

That "stupidly generous concession" was one in Kim Beazley's 2001 election manifesto.
Well the Coalition can't have a TOTAL monopoly over dumb ideas, can they.
 

Quickstatus

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No was not dumb at all. Also promoted by the Ralph Business Review nearly 20 years ago
Just an extension of the progressive tax system. If your income is low enough you don't pay tax.
 

moa999

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Only got 0.19 of a quota, same as One Nation and just above Palmer's UAP.
Much harder for the smaller parties in the half senate elections.

Similar results in SA where the Centre Alliance (former Nick Xenephon) only got 0.19, same as UAP, with One Nation on 0.32.

Lambie likely to get elected in Tasmania on 0.60, and One Nation in Qld on 0.71 also a strong chance.

Chance of LNP getting a 3rd spot in Qld improving which would give them 35.
 

Moody

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No was not dumb at all. Also promoted by the Ralph Business Review nearly 20 years ago
Just an extension of the progressive tax system. If your income is low enough you don't pay tax.
I think you have misunderstood the change that Howard made - it was not a case of not paying tax, but getting a cash handout for imputation credits. Negative tax bill if you like.

A lot of people were also fooled by ScoMo & Co referring to the proposed change as a tax. They obviously didn't read the actual policy .... or didn't care.

 

tgh

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This silliness can be extrapolated to include taxpayers who have excess payg deducted.. why should you get the cash back ?
A franking credit is a portion of company tax paid distributed to the shareholder along with a dividend.
There should be no relevance to the shareholders taxable situation.
It's tax paid that should be credited.. either by way of reducing tax payable OR refunding in cash a portion of the paid company tax if there is no tax payable.
 

RooFlyer

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In Bass the AEC say they have counted 91.3%, so only expecting a dribble of votes from here. with Libs leading by 500+, so unlikely to see major change to the lead.
In detail, Bass:

Eligible electors 76,587
Turnout: 91.3% = 69,923
Formal: 95.86% = 67,029
Count = 91.3%, remaining 8.7% = 5,831 (assumed valid) votes

So with a lead of 561 votes, theoretically there is lots of room to change, especially with a bias towards postal votes to come, but I guess the pundits know how things progress.
 

OATEK

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In detail, Bass:

Eligible electors 76,587
Turnout: 91.3% = 69,923
Formal: 95.86% = 67,029
Count = 91.3%, remaining 8.7% = 5,831 (assumed valid) votes

So with a lead of 561 votes, theoretically there is lots of room to change, especially with a bias towards postal votes to come, but I guess the pundits know how things progress.
My calculation was that turnout is the maximum number of votes to be counted, and the difference between that number and actually counted is only 1,100 or so. In that case Libs only need 50/50 to win.
 

RooFlyer

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My calculation was that turnout is the maximum number of votes to be counted, and the difference between that number and actually counted is only 1,100 or so. In that case Libs only need 50/50 to win.

Hmmm.... yes. I didn't look at the actual vote count. Looking at other electorates, seems that '% turnout' as stated on the top of each page is in fact "% votes counted". o_O

I took it as, well, "percent of voters who turned out to vote" :rolleyes:
 

nickfromeastryde

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Think only Macquarie still in doubt and appears to have tightened up there over last 24 hours which is a surprise to me anyway as I would have thought postal's would have generally favoured the coalition
 

drron

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Think only Macquarie still in doubt and appears to have tightened up there over last 24 hours which is a surprise to me anyway as I would have thought postal's would have generally favoured the coalition
Basically the old politics has been turned on it's head.The left do very well now in affluent seats such as Warringah and Wentworth whilst the coalition is doing better in more working class areas.So not surprised if the coalition isn't as strong in postal votes.
 

drron

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Interesting what Chris Bowen said to reporters in Sydney.
I have noticed as I have been around during the election campaign and even in the days since … how often it has been raised with me that people of faith no longer feel that progressive politics cares about them.

These are people with a social conscience, who want to be included in the progressive movement.

We need to tackle this urgently. I think this is an issue from the federal election that we haven’t yet focused on.’
 

vetrade

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Assuming Bowen didn't just fabricate that little story for expediency, I think he must have jumbled whatever he heard. I don't think people of faith would balk at joining the progressive movement if they wanted to; rather the progressives are dismissive of people of faith, probably because, to them, a (Christian) faith and progressive ideologies are virtually incompatible. I think Bowen's, and Labor's, problem is that they greatly overestimate the number of progressives just because they tend to make the most noise and like organising marches and convoys.
 

CaptJCool

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But what about the science, they say! All those scientists!

...well, as a scientist, and working with scientists for years, let me tell you they are not all the white-coat clad purists anyone might think. "Just follow the (grant) money ..."

Plus, nearly all the 'science' that gets reported and quoted back and forth are models/modeled results .. and anytime you have a model, you have (selected) model inputs and assumptions.

The very same reasons the opinion polls were wrong.

By the time they’d massaged the raw outliers into the final results, they ended up scrambled and BS - BS to win yea right. BS DID NOT WIN.
Sanity prevails
 

CaptJCool

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Someone drawing a superannuation pension is not a pensioner ?
I’m not a pensioner.

I’m on Superannuation. But still young like 55

In the parlance we associate pensioner with “on the age pension”.

Perhaps that’s justs Nobby or just snobby
 

CaptJCool

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After the 2016 election the Liberal/National Coalition required at least nine additional votes to pass legislation an increase of three from beforehand. If no support from Labor or Greens they needed 9 votes of 11 other crossbenchers.

If the coalition end up with 34 and current trends otherwise continue they will need 5 of 6.

Note that the QLD senate is not settled and the coalition may end of with 35 senate seats (they are 'ahead').

I worked out LNP Would finish on 36 let’s face it Bernardi was a Lib
So one for the President makes LNP 34, that other LNP Bernardi 1, One nation 2 = 37

Of the 76, There being 75 on the floor as the President rarely votes

38-37 wins the day
So either Lambie or Centre Alliance hold balance of power in a disputed L v R vote
 

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