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2019 Federal Election Discussion

moa999

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She's been on $200k for how many years, along with all sorts of other allowances, and didn't have a cent.
Pull the other one.
 

OATEK

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AEC have taken Bass of the doubtful list with Libs leading by 699 and hardly any ballot papers left to count.
 

CaptJCool

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The Queensland Senate election remains really the only musical chairs game.

When the music stops who’ll miss out.

So here’s the deal....
It’s optional preferential and the preference exhaustion rate favours a first past the post finish.
It’s designed that the last quota is 1 vote more than the quota who misses out on the chair when the music stops. That’s right you can poll 14% AND STILL MISS OUT
Also, as a party achieves a quota, their residual is calculated and transferred to another party

While 4 parties have a quota percentage between 0.6 and 0.75, it’ll go something like this.

Lab 0.6
Greens 0.68
ON 0.71
LNP 0.75

Leap-Frogging can happen but whoever blinks first falls out of the race
The lower parties will be eliminated first. One can deduce where these are likely to play out (eg Lib Dems, UAP, VARIOUS other L or R parties.

Distribution of their preferences is likely to elect LNP and one of Lab or Greens but having secured votes to fall over the Quota level, there may be nothing or minimal left to transfer. If that’s the case, it becomes a first past the post race at that point
Of course there’s enough votes floating around to elect one on each the Left and Right, and the very last position may hinge on a handful of votes.

Which means

I’d rather be the front-runner then than Chasing from behind. You could be on 0.99 of a quota and still not win (as from vague memory happened in Tas in 2016)

Talking of Tas, they certainly will only elect 2 Lib Senators unless there’s more preference miracles as Lambie is on 0.6 a long way in advance of the next rated party.
 

moa999

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In Tas, no chance of a 3rd Lib. Historically it's their worst state. Lib and Lab 1P votes almost identically

In Qld, believe more right prefs than left so generally felt LNP (particularly with UAP HTV) and ON are safe.
So 6th seat between Green and Labor and Greens are ahead, and typically get more prefs from the minor left parties.
 

amaroo

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AEC update for Macquarie has the LNP ahead by 42 ..... this one will be very close.
 

vetrade

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Interesting that "egg boy", Will Connolly, who broke an egg on Fraser Anning's head, was a guest at the Labor Party's election afterparty.
What message does it send for a political party to embrace an upstart 17 YO kid who's only questionable claim to fame is that he assaulted a Federal politician?
Labor's ethical compass is well and truly broken.
 

drron

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In the seat of Herbert in 2016 on the initial count the ALP won by 8 votes.After the recount the win was 37 votes.The previous member conceded the loss even though the LNP did consider going to the court of Disputed returns as it was likely some Army personnel on exercise couldn't vote and the AEC found over 40 cases of people voting twice-ie their name had been crossed off twice.
 

Pushka

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Interesting that "egg boy", Will Connolly, who broke an egg on Fraser Anning's head, was a guest at the Labor Party's election afterparty.
What message does it send for a political party to embrace an upstart 17 YO kid who's only questionable claim to fame is that he assaulted a Federal politician?
Labor's ethical compass is well and truly broken.
Justified as Freedom of Speech perchance?
 

Quickstatus

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There are different types of votes:

Ordinary - voted correctly within electorate
Absent - votes correctly outside of electorate
Prepoll - voted correctly within electorate before polling day
Postal - voted by mail
Provisional ?
Informal - donkey/muppet vote

What’s a “provisional” vote
 

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