The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Covid alive is taking all my fun away. They are now producing estimates based on 7 day averages of when Aus will reach various milestones of first and second doses.

it currently has 80% of the adult population with 1st jabs around the end of October. Second doses considerably longer. Of course it will depend on the wildcard of whether people continue to come forward at the same rate as they are now.

second doses timeframe will depend very much on whether they are AZ or Pfizer and whether the gap remains at 11 to 12 weeks for AZ or brought closer together.

with increasing availability of Pfizer and increasing outlets, hard not to see those targets reducing.

Can you please post the link?

 

[Flying mermaid]

Can you please post the link?

It is just at their normal site.

11,853,849 Coronavirus cases in Australia - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Australia

covidlive.com.au

Scroll down past the first bits on cases, testing and vaccination and you will see a target with an arrow on it. It has estimates there

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Are they saying nearly all of the cases were kids?

For Victoria for this current outbreak 8 % have been 9 and under and 19% between 10 and 19. Though this includes 12 overseas cases and so figures will not be accurate.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Covid Live is taking all my fun away. They are now producing estimates based on 7 day averages of when Aus will reach various milestones of first and second doses.

it currently has 80% of the adult population with 1st jabs around the end of October. Second doses considerably longer. Of course it will depend on the wildcard of whether people continue to come forward at the same rate as they are now.

second doses timeframe will depend very much on whether they are AZ or Pfizer and whether the gap remains at 11 to 12 weeks for AZ or brought closer together.

with increasing availability of Pfizer and increasing outlets, hard not to see those targets reducing.

Not too bad - 130 days for two-dose reaching 70% (9 December) and 156 days reaching 80% (ie 4 January), just using the current 7 day average. Of course increased supply (reach target quicker) and unknown demand - urgency/hesitancy (which could really go either way) is the great variable.

I think it leaves you enough scope to be optimistic.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

 

[mviy]

Covid Live is taking all my fun away. They are now producing estimates based on 7 day averages of when Aus will reach various milestones of first and second doses.

it currently has 80% of the adult population with 1st jabs around the end of October. Second doses considerably longer. Of course it will depend on the wildcard of whether people continue to come forward at the same rate as they are now.

second doses timeframe will depend very much on whether they are AZ or Pfizer and whether the gap remains at 11 to 12 weeks for AZ or brought closer together.

with increasing availability of Pfizer and increasing outlets, hard not to see those targets reducing.

There's a roughly 2 month gap between 1st and doses reaching a level on those projections. So for that gap not to shorten we'd need to maintain a high percentage of AZ in the rollout. About 2 months is longer than the max 6 weeks gap recommended for Pfizer.

2 months is about 8 weeks which is longer than they are recommending those in SYD wait for their second dose at the moment.

 

[Flying mermaid]

There's a roughly 2 month gap between 1st and doses reaching a level on those projections. So for that gap not to shorten we'd need to maintain a high percentage of AZ in the rollout. About 2 months is longer than the max 6 weeks gap recommended for Pfizer.

2 months is about 8 weeks which is longer than they are recommending those in SYD wait for their second dose at the moment.

In the rest of the country second doses of AZ are being given at 11 to 12 week intervals, so we need a reasonable % of Pfizer (which we will get), to keep that gap getting shorter and reduce the timeframe for getting to 80% fully vaccinated.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well the race to 70%/80% is on.

I think it will finish in the following order:
- Tasmania
- ACT
- New South Wales
- Northern Territory
- South Australia
- Victoria
Country open up
- Western Australia
- Queensland

 

[mviy]

We have gone past 19% (19.04%) for 2nd doses for 16+. This figure should go past 20% mid this week.

79.04% of 70+ have had their first dose.

80% of 80-84 have had their first dose.

90-94 is tantalising close to some major milestones. 79.8% for first dose and 49.8% for second dose. This week hopefully it'll pass 80% and 50% respectively.

20.1% of 60-69 have had their second dose.

40.3% of 40-49 have had their first dose, so every age group 40-49 and up is over half way to the number of first doses needed to get to the 80% target if everyone who has a first dose has a second. Though in reality we would need a bit of a buffer.

12.6% of 20-24 year olds have had their first dose, so over 1 in 8 for every age group 20-24 and up has had their first dose.

70.08% of 50+ TAS have had their first dose and 49.15% of 70+ TAS have had their 2nd dose.

 

[Flying mermaid]

Well the race to 70%/80% is on.

I think it will finish in the following order:
- Tasmania
- ACT
- New South Wales
- Northern Territory
- South Australia
- Victoria
Country open up
- Western Australia
- Queensland

It’s neck and neck with ACT and Tassie, but we have been slowly pulling them back. We start vaccinating 30 to 39 soon (as do they) and I think that will push us in front.

edit

we are doing really well in the 70+ age group with 92% first jab and 54% fully vaccinated

 

[mviy]

TAS is so close to reaching 50% of 70+ fully vaccinated which is a big milestone.

TAS being an island gives it some advantages over ACT for giving freedoms back if it reaches high vaccination levels much sooner than the country average. It wouldn't be much good for the ACT tourism saying people from QLD can come even if QLD is in lockdown if QLD says people returning from ACT have to do 14-days quarantine because of the situation in SYD.

 

[N860CR]

Not too bad - 130 days for two-dose reaching 70% (9 December) and 156 days reaching 80% (ie 4 January), just using the current 7 day average. Of course increased supply (reach target quicker) and unknown demand - urgency/hesitancy (which could really go either way) is the great variable.

I think it leaves you enough scope to be optimistic.

It does. And if you and I can do such calculations, the federal government should be able to as well (with even more accuracy given knowledge of specific stock numbers). There is no reason why we can't say right now "Phase B is 1 Dec" and "Phase C is 1 Jan". That should be a pretty good motivator to those who are on the fence about a vaccination (or can't be bothered organising it). We know the stock is available to reach those targets, so then it's up to people to ensure they do it.

He may not hold a hose, but he can pickup a calculator.

 

[mviy]

I think eventually they will set dates, but they will want to be a lot closer to vaccination targets before doing so.

 

[N860CR]

I think eventually they will set dates, but they will want to be a lot closer to vaccination targets before doing so.

True. Bit of a double edged sword. Don't set a date, vaccination rates will drop right off (as they have elsewhere). Set a date, you've given the carrot, but then have to have the guts to follow through with it.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I think eventually they will set dates, but they will want to be a lot closer to vaccination targets before doing so.

It does depend on whether the vaccine take up slows down worse than expected as we approach 70% or 80%. Come end of January if we still haven't got there you can almost hear the drums......Open up regardless come 1 March/April.

 

[mviy]

True. Bit of a double edged sword. Don't set a date, vaccination rates will drop right off (as they have elsewhere). Set a date, you've given the carrot, but then have to have the guts to follow through with it.

And we have seen that after setting a date the UK pushed it back before opening up.

 

[louie-m]

Well the race to 70%/80% is on.

I think it will finish in the following order:
- Tasmania
- ACT
- New South Wales
- Northern Territory
- South Australia
- Victoria
Country open up
- Western Australia
- Queensland

But the country won't open up until every state hits the target according to the PM. Or do you think that he'll have lost patience with WA and Qld by then?

 

[justinbrett]

Fury at ‘cruel’ vax cancellation stuff-up

An unfortunate error has seen people in priority groups have their Covid-19 vaccinations cancelled and redirected to Sydney Year 12 students living in hotspot areas.

www.news.com.au

 

[Lynda2475]

But the country won't open up until every state hits the target according to the PM. Or do you think that he'll have lost patience with WA and Qld by then?

Not exactly.

The country as a whole has to hit the target (so total adult population with 2 doses / total adult population >=+ 80%) plus an individual state also reach the target for that state to open up.

So if NSW and Vic both exceed 80% adult populaton vaccinated, that will likley be enough to push the national average to over 80%, meaning NSW and Vic could open up even if a smaller state like WA was still sitting at less than 80%.

 

[N860CR]

And we have seen that after setting a date the UK pushed it back before opening up.

And that’s fine. But it sets a plan in motion, and provides motivation. It also allows business to plan with a touch more certainty. If he said Phase C in Jan, I’d be more confident to plan work for March/April. At the moment, I’m holding off until after June (assuming a may election)