Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[CityRail]

At the Senate Select Committee for Covid-19, Prof Murphy has just been asked about international travel and quarantine upon arrival. He said the following...

I think in order for international border restrictions to be lifted, I think we will need to see the global curve flattening first, which I think the number of cases occurring globally is still increasing at a slower increasing rate, which is a bit of a worry.

However say that we might be able to have a vaccine by the end of the year, preferably in northern Autumn, so I really hope Christmas international travel could still be on the cards.

 

[OATEK]

I think in order for international border restrictions to be lifted, I think we will need to see the global curve flattening first, which I think the number of cases occurring globally is still increasing at a slower increasing rate, which is a bit of a worry.

However say that we might be able to have a vaccine by the end of the year, preferably in northern Autumn, so I really hope Christmas international travel could still be on the cards.

When we made the decision to cancel the Easter trip to Europe/UK, I had hoped that Christmas might see a resumption, But then I started planning for next Easter, and now starting to consider May/June 2021 might be a goer. But still very uncertain as until treatment/vaccine emerges to make it as safe as reasonably possible, I can't really see a realistic date for resumption emerging.

 

[mrs.dr.ron]

This is not good news -

That overseas holiday could be longer away than expected with an international travel boss speculating things won't be back to normal until 2023.

Alexandre de Juniac, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association, delivered the sobering news on ABC News Breakfast this morning.
“We have published today a new forecast about the potential recovery of the air traffic, and what we see is that things should come back to normal in 2023, which is later than our previous forecast,” Mr de Juniac said.
“That shows, you know, the importance and the severity of this crisis on air transport….We should join progressively the historical trends by the beginning of 2023.
“What we have planned is to restart the industry, first by reopening domestic markets, then regional continental markets, such as Asia-Pacific, or Europe, or North America.
“At the end of 2020, the traffic should be between 50 to 55 per cent of the same level that was in place in 2019.
“So, we would lose something like half the traffic for the 2020.”

from news.com.au 14/05/2020

 

[seanQLD]

A distinction needs to be made between "overseas holiday" and "overseas business travel, that creates/keeps jobs and brings export $ to Australia".. Those 2 category of travel are as different as chalk and cheese.

After the Au/NZ bubble is set up... next how about all countries that have lower or similar cases per million than Australia... If their case numbers are not believed (i.e. not enough testing) then choose deaths per million or active-cases per million or some other metric. There are places where Covid is less prevalent than Australia.

 

[burmans]

This is not good news -

That overseas holiday could be longer away than expected with an international travel boss speculating things won't be back to normal until 2023.

Alexandre de Juniac, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association, delivered the sobering news on ABC News Breakfast this morning.
“We have published today a new forecast about the potential recovery of the air traffic, and what we see is that things should come back to normal in 2023, which is later than our previous forecast,” Mr de Juniac said.
“That shows, you know, the importance and the severity of this crisis on air transport….We should join progressively the historical trends by the beginning of 2023.
“What we have planned is to restart the industry, first by reopening domestic markets, then regional continental markets, such as Asia-Pacific, or Europe, or North America.
“At the end of 2020, the traffic should be between 50 to 55 per cent of the same level that was in place in 2019.
“So, we would lose something like half the traffic for the 2020.”

from news.com.au 14/05/2020

Personally I'd regard getting to "50 to 55 per cent of the same level" in 2020 as a good outcome! They haven't speculated as to what traffic will be like in 2021/2022 but extrapolating the two points suggest something like 70% in 2021 and 85% in 2022 which certainly wouldn't surprise me and actually doesn't really align with the headline. At these levels a significant %ge of people are taking holidays and frankly I think we are deluding ourselves if we think some people won't. This overhang of fear of travel will hang around for some time in my view, even if we do find a cure for this particular virus. And of course incomes will be down so ability to travel is down.

 

[p--and--t]

I’m puzzled why there are no talks about resuming travel to Taiwan.

Surely you know the answer to that question. Politics.

China are already pissed off at us and using economic punishment for not towing the CCP party line.

They would certainly be ramping that up if we recognised Taiwan not in the same basket as China mainland. Just look at the fact they threatened to ban all QF planes from landing or overflying Chinese territory unless they removed Taiwan Thailand and Hong Kong as independent states in the booking engine.

 

[DC3]

.... unless they removed Thailand and Hong Kong as independent states in the booking engine.

Typo: Thailand and Hong Kong. Spellcheck is not your friend.

We know what you mean.

 

[p--and--t]

Typo: Thailand and Hong Kong. Spellcheck is not your friend.

We know what you mean.

Good pick up. Bloody technology, sometimes not that helpful. Fixed

Off topic, but a friend handed his phone for me to type something in for him and the spell checker made some VERY surprising suggestions

 

[dajop]

A distinction needs to be made between "overseas holiday" and "overseas business travel, that creates/keeps jobs and brings export $ to Australia".. Those 2 category of travel are as different as chalk and cheese.

There is a third category that falls somewhere between the two, with a globally mobile workforce and high levels of migration to Australia, there's the "visiting friends and relatives" market, which has quite variable characteristics. It ranges from oil and gas workers and the like who work outside the country ( leaving their families in Australia), to those who have migrated to Australia with close family still in their original country, to Australians studying overseas, to expats who are working outside Australia, but maintain strong ties to "home", with parents or children and sometime spouses in Australia still.

Then category #4 is foreign students.

 

[CityRail]

I’m puzzled why there are no talks about resuming travel to Taiwan. While I respect NZ achievements, Taiwan did better than any other country without even going into lockdown.

I think when you reopen the borders, you would want to reopen with the neighbouring countries that is under control of Coronavirus. I understand this will happen eventually, but I suspect for now it is not yet and a bit risky and premature for it to do so.

I think once the Trans-Tasman travel bubble is successful by July, then we can start to see more talks with other countries, so we might need to wait until September or October for that to re-open with some Asian countries.

Hopefully, by September, as Oxford University and The Australian suggests then we will have a vaccine so by the end of the year international travel will resume again. But obviously it will not resume the demand as it was until 2023 because people are out of work so they don't have money to travel.

 

[CityRail]

I think that a god idea is to get the initial bubble up and working, and then after that is proven to have worked well to then look at expansion into other CV free Countries plus to have people from other countries enter as long as they quarantine on entry.

Definitely agreed. I think you need to find an effective partner to open up the bubble first before you expand the bubble to other Asian countries so that you can extend the success.

On the other hand, should international students are allowed back in, that means that they will also be allowed to go back to their own countries in December 2020. So I would suspect there's fair confidence from the government that international travel will need to maintain some normality by the end of the year.

 

[p--and--t]

Hopefully, by September, as Oxford University

You have said that a few times on AFF and it is not correct.

Below is the official position of Oxford University. They will NOT have a vaccine ready for distribution by September. They hope to have the required data by September.

Oxford COVID-19 vaccine begins human trial stage | University of Oxford

University of Oxford researchers have begun testing a COVID-19 vaccine in human volunteers in Oxford today. Around 1,110 people will take part in the trial, half receiving the vaccine and the other half (the control group) receiving a widely available meningitis vaccine.

www.ox.ac.uk

 

[mrsterryn]

So flying (once we are allowed ) will either be super cheap as people won't have the fund or super expensive to recoup some of the most funds ?
The other issue is people may have used up holiday leave during this time to stay home
I would love Japan to be on the permitted visits ditto UK and USA

 

[N860CR]

So flying (once we are allowed ) will either be super cheap as people won't have the fund or super expensive to recoup some of the most funds ?

I’d lean towards the latter. The airlines will likely reduce services to keep fares higher and load factors higher

 

[p--and--t]

I’d lean towards the latter. The airlines will likely reduce services to keep fares higher and load factors higher

That would seem the most logical outcome given airlines seem to run on exceptionally low margins and few make a reasonable profit in normal times with high load factors let alone the new paradigm. With or without social distancing rules, there will be some very sick looking balance sheets to repair.

However, we might hope and pray and be surprised by a few loss leader fare to get planes in the air, routes re-established, again.

We will see in the fullness of time (Australia Post still haven't delivered the crystal ball I ordered years ago)

 

[drron]

If airline numbers are 50-55% of 2019 by December it means there will be some leisure travel by then.It will all depend on which countries will let you in.
We wouldn't worry about a 14 day quarantine on return.The joys of at least semi retirement.

PS Aust Post deliveries of crystal balls are experiencing long delays.Not expected until 2023.

 

[moa999]

Mandatory 14-day home detention.
Entire family (including the two five year old kids) also required to wear some fairly chunky GPS wristbands for the duration.

This person is live tweeting their HK arrival experience (it's a lengthy one)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1260784481159442434

 

[11sjw]

This is not good news -

That overseas holiday could be longer away than expected with an international travel boss speculating things won't be back to normal until 2023.

Alexandre de Juniac, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association, delivered the sobering news on ABC News Breakfast this morning.
“We have published today a new forecast about the potential recovery of the air traffic, and what we see is that things should come back to normal in 2023, which is later than our previous forecast,” Mr de Juniac said.
“That shows, you know, the importance and the severity of this crisis on air transport….We should join progressively the historical trends by the beginning of 2023.
“What we have planned is to restart the industry, first by reopening domestic markets, then regional continental markets, such as Asia-Pacific, or Europe, or North America.
“At the end of 2020, the traffic should be between 50 to 55 per cent of the same level that was in place in 2019.
“So, we would lose something like half the traffic for the 2020.”

from news.com.au 14/05/2020

Just heard a snippet on the radio news that went something like "..most won't likely holiday overseas until 2023..." I'm guessing this was generated from the interview you're referring to.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

This person is live tweeting their HK arrival experience (it's a lengthy one)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1260784481159442434

HK are ticking all the boxes with tracker, test on arrival AND quarantine....as well as many other measures.

To rely on just a test on arrival would be quite risky as:

• Not all tests are accurate
• People who have just been infected can take several days before a test will show as positive

 

[jakeseven7]

Air NZ starting up at 20% capacity but ramping up from there.

The Great Restart: Air New Zealand 'Warming up engines' as restrictions ease

The airline’s Twitter account said, “See you soon New Zealand” as the business issued guidance for passengers flying under lowered ‘Alert Level 2’ restrictions which are now in effect.

australianaviation.com.au