Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[kelvedon]

In 39 of 47 prefectures, Japan is lifting its 'state of emergency.'

However it's staying in Toyko, Osaka, Chiba, Kyoto and a small number of others.

Do easings like this mean that Oz - Japan air travel may be possible a lot earlier than the doomsday scenario of '2023' (non route-specif) painted by IATA?

It would seem that a “state of emergency “ in Japan is not as onerous as it sounds. Unlike our so called “lockdowns” It does not Allow the authorities the right to enforce the closure of schools restaurants or nightclubs, rather it enables the authorities to request that they close ( though the Japanese compliance culture doesn’t generally resist that request)

What changes under Japan's state of emergency declaration?

After weeks of intense pressure Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has declared a state of emergency in seven urban areas, but what does that change?

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[Pushka]

I think the report suggests that due to the economic impact of the Coronavirus, as well as travel restrictions, the level of traffic in 2019 will not be fully recovered until 2023.

I am sure that traffic between Australia and Japan will resume before 2023, or even before 2021. However, it is the lower level of demand that the article is concerned about towards the medium-long term.

Post automatically merged: May 15, 2020

Majority of cases comes from Victoria, and NSW, and to date they still have high testing numbers as well.

So that means that we should be vigilant and I think if we can keep the number of cases at this level for some time, then travel restrictions will eventually ease. Remember we will need to live with the virus, not stay under the dunna forever to avoid it.

And take away the numbers of people testing positive in quarantine.

 

[dajop]

Well I had a laugh on Flyertalk today, where someone (who would seem to be well known in these parts too) suggested that travel, without quarantine, would be open between the US and Australia/NZ by July

 

[CityRail]

Well I had a laugh on Flyertalk today, where someone (who would seem to be well known in these parts too) suggested that travel, without quarantine, would be open between the US and Australia/NZ by July

Possible by July 2021. Not 2020 obviously.

 

[VPS]

One of my colleagues from NI is adamant he is coming to Australia for business in November 2020

 

[tgh]

There is clearly a strong move world wide to open up and live with the consequences which, one assumes , is continuing mass prevalence of COVID….
Trump repeats ad nauseum that the US will soon be open for business… crippled with disease.. but open

So what are we going to do ?
Will we (and the kiwi's) be a pristine Covid free paradise that has really really tight quarantine..In and Out , for years and years and…..?
This option kills most commercial travel , cruising, flying.. until ( if ) a vaccine happens.

The apparent alternative is to accept the lowest common denominator infection rate , ie US or Spain….for an indefinite period
This option really means that all our economic and social pain was pointless and that we have to face the same massive infection tsunami everyone else is enjoying.

People write here and other places about their future plans but I don't get it… what travel plans can one entertain ? …..save for dreams….

 

[yohy?!]

Italy anyone? Reopening int. Travel June 3 with no mandatory quarantine...

 

[daft009]

Except NZ I don't see anything else opening this year

 

[Gremlin]

Italy anyone? Reopening int. Travel June 3 with no mandatory quarantine...

Given how much CV has been thru, there's not many countries from which visitors will increase Italy's CV risk. Might be a different story on the way home but...

 

[OATEK]

Italy anyone? Reopening int. Travel June 3 with no mandatory quarantine...

Given how much CV has been thru, there's not many countries from which visitors will increase Italy's CV risk. Might be a different story on the way home but...

Speaking to a friend with family in the South of Italy, they report there has been hardly any CV-19 in their part of the country.

 

[Melburnian1]

AFFer jb747 IIRC suggested international flights from Oz would not again occur until October 2021.

While he didn't go into specifics re individual routes, at the time I thought he was being unduly pessimistic, and not just in regards to NZ.

Now - at least in regard to some parts of Asia, a fair swathe of Europe, all of the UK and South America/Africa - if anything he may have been a little optimistic.

One keeps reading widely divergent reports as to whether a vaccine will be developed, and if so, when. Very confusing given that the vast majority of us are not medically trained, or know anything about epidemiology.

 

[CityRail]

Here's another article from SBS regards when international borders may re-open:

Coronavirus travel restrictions: When will Australia open its borders to temporary visa holders?

Interstate lockdowns are set to ease, but the halt on international travel is likely to stay for longer. With the Australian government focused on staving off a second wave of COVID-19 cases, “gradual and cautious reopening” of borders seems to be the only way forward, say experts.

www.sbs.com.au

Former senior Immigration Department official Abul Rizvi told SBS Punjabi that even if the government considered opening the borders, it is highly likely that the process would be “very, very gradual and selective.”

Meanwhile, I am surprised that Italy will reopen its borders from early June, and I hope that there will not be a second wave in Europe or else we are going to see a even longer wait until the border can re-open.

But it seems to be intercontinental travel is definitely going to be far way off, possibly not until 2021.

There are also reports from 7News yesterday that Bali is intending to re-open by October, whilst the rest of Indonesia is suffering from a spike of cases.

I really hope they can reach the peak and flatten the curve as soon as possible so that Australian can travel to Bali once again.

There's also another article from Daily Telegraph which suggests that we might see travel to Asia possible from early 2021.

No Cookies | Daily Telegraph

No Cookies

www.dailytelegraph.com.au

 

[dajop]

I think the first barrier to international travel is of course government restrictions, this is much talked about. But they are not the only barrier. I think the - at the moment - insurmountable problem is the lack of travel insurance coverage for pandemics - it’s going to be at substantial risk to travel to certain places - particularly the USA.

 

[Himeno]

It would seem that a “state of emergency “ in Japan is not as onerous as it sounds. Unlike our so called “lockdowns” It does not Allow the authorities the right to enforce the closure of schools restaurants or nightclubs, rather it enables the authorities to request that they close ( though the Japanese compliance culture doesn’t generally resist that request)

What changes under Japan's state of emergency declaration?

After weeks of intense pressure Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has declared a state of emergency in seven urban areas, but what does that change?

www.japantimes.co.jp

The Japanese Constitution does not allow governments to enforce a lockdown. They can only request that people/businesses follow the rules. However, most Japanese take government 'requests' to be demands and comply.
Some prefectures started naming and shaming businesses that remained open in spite of the closure requests.

Looks like they lifted the requirements for everywhere except Hokkaidō and the Tokyo and Osaka metro areas.
The Japanese state of emergency is currently planned to end at the end of the month, after being extended from May 6. They'll decide if the other 8 prefectures will have their 'lockdowns' removed on Thursday.

 

[CityRail]

I think the first barrier to international travel is of course government restrictions, this is much talked about. But they are not the only barrier. I think the - at the moment - insurmountable problem is the lack of travel insurance coverage for pandemics - it’s going to be at substantial risk to travel to certain places - particularly the USA.

Agreed. Unless you are dual citizens who are simply go back to another country.
I am hoping by the end of the year, if the travel ban will be removed, we won't see countries back to Level 1 travel advice for some time due to Coronavirus.

 

[drron]

Europe has set out plans for opening up EU borders.

Europe seeks to save the summer holidays

The EU on Wednesday set out plans for a phased restart of travel this summer, hoping to save millions of tourism jobs threatened by the coronavirus pandemic across Europe, the world's top holiday destination. Travel restrictions to combat the virus have already had a devastating impact on the...

news.yahoo.com

Spain has previously said it would aim at opening it's borders to non EU citizens in October.

 

[p--and--t]

Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham urged Australians not to book holidays that are currently banned.

"There are no guarantees about when any of the activities will restart," he told the ABC.

"Certainly no guarantees about international travel and definitely no guarantees about international cruise shipping."

Senator Birmingham said he would rather people stay onshore.

"The most important focus of our tourism recovery will be on attracting visitors to stay in our towns, supporting Australian businesses to get back on their feet," he said.

"I will be urging them [Australians] to firstly get in their cars and drive across regional Australia wherever they can and when we get to point state borders are opened, to hopefully get on planes and head to some of the other great destinations around the country."


Source ABC News 17 May 2020

 

[seanQLD]

Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham urged Australians not to book holidays that are currently banned.

"There are no guarantees about when any of the activities will restart," he told the ABC.

"Certainly no guarantees about international travel and definitely no guarantees about international cruise shipping."

Senator Birmingham said he would rather people stay onshore.

"The most important focus of our tourism recovery will be on attracting visitors to stay in our towns, supporting Australian businesses to get back on their feet," he said.

"I will be urging them [Australians] to firstly get in their cars and drive across regional Australia wherever they can and when we get to point state borders are opened, to hopefully get on planes and head to some of the other great destinations around the country."


Source ABC News 17 May 2020

"Holidays" versus "Business/work"

 

[jakeseven7]

"Holidays" versus "Business/work"

Hasn't Simon Birmingham heard though that VA are encouraging people to redeem their Velocity points on VA flights ASAP - so maybe VA knows something he doesnt!?

 

[levelnine]

All these people predicting borders will stay closed for a long time miss a crucial piece of the puzzle.

Part of the problem for the Australian government is that they will soon come under enormous pressure to open the borders irrespective of the prevalence of COVID-19 in other countries. That pressure will come from multiple sources:
1. Universities will pressure government to open borders to let in international students
2. Tourism industry will pressure government to open borders to save the industry
3. Businesses will pressure government to open borders to bring in workers and to conduct overseas business
4. Holidaymakers will pressure government to open borders to travel
5. Families will pressure government to open borders to visit loved ones

If the rest of the world returns to business as usual while Australia remains closed off from the world, it will suffer huge negative economic impacts. It can only maintain its closed borders while most of the world is shut down. As the world reopens, Australia will start to get left behind.

I'm not commenting on the merits of opening borders while COVID-19 is still rife. But if everyone else in the world begins to simply accept COVID-19 as a risk of life (like driving a car is a risk, or malaria is a risk), then Australia won't be able to maintain its isolationist policy for long. We live in a globalised world, which means Australia's fate is partially determined by what other countries do, and other countries are moving to reopen sooner rather than later.