The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

33kft

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Well, we've finally caught up with the big league on at least one metric, and not far off on another.

1634978408179.png

Australia is now on par with the UK's first dose ratio, and only a couple of percent off from being mid-pack of the North American and European countries that we've been playing catch up to. Our second dose coverage is a little behind, the UK has a 6% delta between First and Second and we have a 13% delta, but given our late start we are vaccinating at a significantly higher rate than many of the countries we are being compared to, so if we maintain the rate for a while longer we will see Australia firmly in the upper quadrant.

Hopefully the push in QLD to increase vaccination rate will pick up some of the tail off in NSW given they are reaching the tail end of their (initial, at least) vaccination drive.
 

SYD

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Well, we've finally caught up with the big league on at least one metric, and not far off on another.

View attachment 262909

Australia is now on par with the UK's first dose ratio, and only a couple of percent off from being mid-pack. Our second dose coverage is a little behind, the UK has a 6% delta between First and Second and we have a 13% delta, but given our late start we are vaccinating at a significantly higher rate than many of the countries we are being compared to, so if we maintain the rate for a while longer we will see Australia firmly in the upper quadrant.

Hopefully the push in QLD to increase vaccination rate will pick up some of the tail off in NSW given they are reaching the tail end of their (initial, at least) vaccination drive.
The SMH and Age are showing us at 60% total pop ie the WHO target. Well on our way to the 70% total pop.
 

lovetravellingoz

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The SMH and Age are showing us at 60% total pop ie the WHO target. Well on our way to the 70% total pop.

First dose 72.4% of total population (0+)
Second dose 59.7% of total population (0+)

1634979931805.png

Add 12-15 to 16+ doses and then divide by total population.
1634980063513.png
 

SYD

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First dose 72.4% of total population (0+)
Second dose 59.7% of total population (0+)

View attachment 262912

Add 12-15 to 16+ doses and then divide by total population.
View attachment 262913
Yep, different numbers floating around. Even the SMH headline was sub 60% but their map ticked over green (alas blue when you click on it). Eitherway, everyone will be showing 60% or more tomorrow (or Monday at the latest).

 

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Tiki

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Those countries that are over 85% like UAE, Portugal...... how is this possible? If this is % of total population, surely kids under 12 are more than 15% of total population and not vaxxed?
 

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I wonder how much NSW’s stated intention of allowing the unvaccinated back into the mainstream would be affecting their vaccine take up. I know a couple of people who intend simply waiting until that date rolls by. Their behaviour might be somewhat different it they’d been they’d be locked out until covid is a memory, especially if their teenagers were also restricted from going to school. I don’t see the point of half hearted restrictions.
 

SYD

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Those countries that are over 85% like UAE, Portugal...... how is this possible? If this is % of total population, surely kids under 12 are more than 15% of total population and not vaxxed?
Average age in Portugal is over 46. So the percentage of pop under 12 yo could be relatively low (I’m sure those stats are out there). Can’t explain UAE which as a much younger average pop ~33 yo. Apparently, Oz is around 37 yo.

Looking at the national stats we should achieve a pretty high result by year end.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Average age in Portugal is over 46. So the percentage of pop under 12 yo could be relatively low (I’m sure those stats are out there). Can’t explain UAE which as a much younger average pop ~33 yo. Apparently, Oz is around 37 yo.

Looking at the national stats we should achieve a pretty high result by year end.

So looking at the Australian population : that is 21.86 million for 12+. Australian population is about 25.7 million..

= 85% of population.

If 95% vaccination rate is achieved, that is about 81%.. Australia first doses currently sitting on 71%, but with low vaccination rates in several Australian states/territories there is still a lot of scope to get that first dose/second dose rate much higher.

Around Christmas or early in the new year the 5-11 year olds should start t be vaccinated.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I wonder how much NSW’s stated intention of allowing the unvaccinated back into the mainstream would be affecting their vaccine take up. I know a couple of people who intend simply waiting until that date rolls by. Their behaviour might be somewhat different it they’d been they’d be locked out until covid is a memory, especially if their teenagers were also restricted from going to school. I don’t see the point of half hearted restrictions.

Looking at Europe the UK with less strict rules than comparable other countries in Europe in terms of vaccination rates such as Spain, France etc is experiencing more cases, hospitalisations and severe illness outcomes. Compared to the UK, those other countries have maintained various control measures such as vaccine passports, etc.

The UK experience would suggest that vaccinations alone are not enough, or at least not enough with the level of vaccination that the UK has at present.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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experience would suggest that vaccinations alone are not enough

booking holidays ?

Yes, I have booked to go to London and UK next June. If their vaccination rate was higher I probably would have booked to arrive in April like I have done in the past. So I have instead targeted the height of their summer, and to allow them a few more months to have gotten more people vaccinated and/or have been infected.
 

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Looking at Europe the UK with less strict rules than comparable other countries in Europe in terms of vaccination rates such as Spain, France etc is experiencing more cases, hospitalisations and severe illness outcomes. Compared to the UK, those other countries have maintained various control measures such as vaccine passports, etc.

The UK experience would suggest that vaccinations alone are not enough, or at least not enough with the level of vaccination that the UK has.
Widely reported of the relatively low uptake of vax in UK under 30s. Only around 55% and only crawling up…
 

tgh

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Covid proliferation among the vaccinated population(s) means that travel is likely to be problematic unless testing is abandoned.
A heavy infection rate , regardless of hospitalisation numbers, increases the risk of viral evolution …
Sorry to be scrooge.. just dampening the enthusiasm a tad…..
 

lovetravellingoz

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Can we see similar for hospital admissions before worrying?

Yes, they are all available for each country.

And it is not worrying, it is just planning for what we do in Europe next year for our already booked flights.

Various diseases have not stopped us from travelling over the decades as we have a taste for remote travels (ie have had to consider all sorts of diseases like malaria, cholera, yellow fever, rabies etc as well as things such as drinking water especially on many of my hikes of up to 3 weeks) but depending what is at play it does alter our preparations and what we do and how we do it.t

I contracted Whooping Cough in my early 50's in Paris . I was unaware at the time that earlier vaccinations for it tended to wane by about that age. We have kept travelling, but it was a reminder of the need to factor in infectious diseases as part of one's travel planning. I probably had not been as thorough in my research as I had been for more exotic destinations.
 
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mviy

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When you look at the numbers for 70+ every state and territory is > 95% first dose except for NT on 87.11% and QLD on 94.9%.

For 50+ for first dose, ACT, NSW and VIC are > 95%, TAS is 92.73%. QLD, SA and WA are all in the high 80s.

It's the under 50s where the vaccination rates need to lift significantly in SA, QLD and WA. If you look at the jurisdictional breakdown in each of those states every age group 50-54 and up has gone past 80% first dose.

At this point first dose numbers should be a good leading indicator of where the fully vaccinated numbers will roughly be in a month or so.
 

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Yes, they are all available for each country.

And it is not worrying, it is just planning for what we do in Europe next year for our already booked flights.

Various diseases have not stopped us from travelling over the decades as we have a taste for remote travels (ie have had to consider all sorts of diseases like malaria, cholera, yellow fever, rabies etc as well as things such as drinking water especially on many of my hikes of up to 3 weeks) but depending what is at play it does alter our preparations and what we do and how we do it.t

I contracted Whooping Cough in my early 50's in Paris . I was unaware at the time that earlier vaccinations for it tended to wane by about that age. We have kept travelling, but it was a reminder of the need to factor in infectious diseases as part of one's travel planning. I probably had not been as thorough in my research as I had been for more exotic destinations.
Indeed. Partner travelled to Singapore during SARS and we travelled to Bali during swine flu.
 

mviy

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Nearly 1 in 3 (33.29%) of 12-15 year-olds are fully vaccinated. In NSW over 50% (50.77%) of this age group is fully vaccinated.

Every age group 50-54 and up except 60-64 has gone past 80% fully vaccinated.

Every age group 35-39 and up has gone past 70% fully vaccinated.

Every age group 25-29 and up has gone past 60% fully vaccinated.

QLD up to 94.98% first dose for 70+ now, so when today's numbers are released tomorrow every state or territory except NT should be past 95% first dose for 70+. These are very good numbers.
 

lovetravellingoz

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In terms of Vic, most cases are being generated in the younger age groups which are the cohorts with the lowest vaccination rates..

1635052615947.png
Vaccination rates in the under 40's has for the second dose jumped by about 12 % over the last week. So in another week most 16-39s should be 70% double vaxxed.

The weekly breakdown of vaccinations by LGA should be out tomorrow. That should show that most LGA's will have gone past 70% second dose for 16+. However significantly some of the LGA's with the highest number of cases will still be short of 70%. These LGA's also tend to have low average ages with a high proportion of younger people.



So in about a week the second dose rate for all LGA's and for all age groups from 16+ should be at or over 70%. 12-15 say 2 to 3 weeks from that. So that should bite into the cases in those cohorts.


1635052684124.png 1635052732030.png
 
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