The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[louie-m]

The only thing I can say to help you out is that at least people will be fully vaccinated faster. And while the Govt refuses to give fully vaccinated people any leeway then by end of year you will likely be at the same place as the rest of us.

Will they? Surely it just means that more AZ doses will be sitting around unused whilst more people will be chasing the same number of Pfizer doses.

 

[mviy]

Hunt has also said they will have access to 2.8 million doses of Pfizer in July, which is much higher than anticipated

Before the announcement of those in 50s will get Pfizer I would have hoped that would mean the next 2B age group would start getting vaccinated next month. Now that seems doubtful

 

[Flying mermaid]

Before the announcement of those in 50s will get Pfizer I would have hoped that would mean the next 2B age group would start getting vaccinated next month. Now that seems doubtful

Probably - I immediately texted my 53 year old friend when I heard the news and he bombarded me with questions as to how soon he could get it, so hopefully there will be a rush.

I know you want to get vaccinated and be ready to travel, but to be honest I can’t see anyone travelling for awhile, so I think you will be fully vaccinated well before any travel starts even with this change.

 

[louie-m]

According to AstraZeneca recommended for over-60s after increase in rare clotting disorder in 50-59 age group, the rate of clotting was 1.8 cases per 100k for those over 49 and 1.9 per 100k for 50 - 59 year olds. So 50 - 59 year olds like me are really at much greater risk, ho ho. Shan't be worrying too much about my second AZ dose later this month.

 

[jakeseven7]

According to AstraZeneca recommended for over-60s after increase in rare clotting disorder in 50-59 age group, the rate of clotting was 1.8 cases per 100k for those over 49 and 1.9 per 100k for 50 - 59 year olds. So 50 - 59 year olds like me are really at much greater risk, ho ho. Shan't be worrying too much about my second AZ dose later this month.

Im not at all concerned getting my second AZ shortly even though I’m now 30 years off the ‘enhanced’ guidelines Millions in the UK managed it just fine...

 

[Pushka]

Will they? Surely it just means that more AZ doses will be sitting around unused whilst more people will be chasing the same number of Pfizer doses.

Referring to the time between 1st and then second dose.

 

[justinbrett]

So can NSW expect an extra supply of vaccines as was given to Victoria?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Hunt has also said they will have access to 2.8 million doses of Pfizer in July, which is much higher than anticipated

From The Age:

“In the first three months of the rollout, from February to May, we received 3.4 million doses of Pfizer. This month we’re expected to receive 1.7 million, and next month that will grow to 2.8 million doses. And that’s what will allow us to expand the coverage,” he said.​

​

“Then over the balance of the year - and I’ve had this reaffirmed by the country head of Pfizer today - we will receive the remaining 32.5 million doses. So, that means that we remain on track to receive all of our Pfizer during the course of this year.”​

So 3.4 + 1.7 + 2.8 + 32.5 = 40.4 million = 20.2 million people (minus any wastage, though equally maximisation could see more people vaccinated.).

Note though that once received, processed and then distributed.

Moderna is on top of that arriving starting In September, but mainly in December.

So this still points to a very busy last quarter, as long as people present for vaccination, and as long as the vaccination channels are greatly expanded. ie More than double the current throughput.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So can NSW expect an extra supply of vaccines as was given to Victoria?

Hunt said the temporary extra doses (both Pfizer, but mainly AZ) were given due to a surge in demand. So if NSW gets its demand up, who knows what Hunt may grant to NSW.


However looking at the second dose rate of what has gone into arms to date, that would suggest that NSW has not been lacking for Pfizer doses overall to date as not many AZ second doses have been given due the 12 week timing of second doses..

 

[justinbrett]

Hunt said the temporary extra doses (both Pfizer, but mainly AZ) were given due to a surge in demand. So if you get your demand up, who knows what Hunt may grant to NSW.


However looking at the second dose rate of what has gone into arms to date, that would suggest that NSW has not been lacking for Pfizer doses as not many AZ second doses have been given due the 12 week timing of second doses..

View attachment 250595

The demand is there. I just tried to book my Pfizer appointment and there's nothing available until August.

You're making a lot of assumptions about second doses = Pfizer. I'd like to see the hard facts to support your claim there.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The demand is there. I just tried to book my Pfizer appointment and there's nothing available until August.

You're making a lot of assumptions about second doses = Pfizer. I'd like to see the hard facts to support your claim there.

Unfortunately the Feds do not publish the data. So yes one has to make assumptions.

However my assumption is not that second doses are only Pfizer, but that yes up till now that a majority will have been so.

NSW has had a lot more second doses than Victoria by a large margin. So I think it reasonable to assume this means that NSW has had more Pfizer doses than Victoria including on a per/population basis up until at least fairly recently. The current extra doses may equal that out or surpass it. Without hard dat one does not exactly known.

What is is known:

• that AZ takes 9 weeks longer to get both doses,
• that the AZ rollout started after the Pfizer Rollout.
• that the GP Channel which has virtually only been AZ started on 22 March- So second doese are only from 14th June

But Vic has had the lowest % of second doses, and this was also so prior to the current surge. So it is not just the current surge at play.

How would you explain it being so much lower? People not getting their second Pfizer dose in Victoria would seem unlikely.

 

[justinbrett]

Unfortunately the Feds do not publish the data. So yes one has to make assumptions.

However my assumption is not that second doses are only Pfizer, but that yes up till now that they will have mainly been so. NSW has had a lot more doses than Victoria by a large margin. So I think it reasonable to assume this means that NSW has had more doses than Victoria including on a per/population basis.

What is is known:

• that AZ takes 9 weeks longer to get both doses,
• that the AZ rollout started after the Pfizer Rollout.
• that the GP Channel which has virtually only been AZ started on 22 March- So second doese are only from 14th June

But Vic has had the lowest % of second doses, and this was also so prior to the current surge. So it is not just the current surge at play.

How would you explain it being so much lower? People not getting their second Pfizer dose in Victoria would seem unlikely.




View attachment 250597

View attachment 250596

So pretty much every state other than VIC and QLD are in the same ballpark as NSW (or better). And when QLD's Premier and CHO have been sending very bad signals, let's just leave them aside for now.

You're assuming there hasn't been any people vaccinating in different states (1st in VIC, 2nd in NSW). People on this forum have suggested doing this exact thing.

What about people who got the first dose and decided against a second?

So many factors here. You just can't extrapolate the figures to say NSW has got more Pfizer than others (or at least more than VIC) based on this.

 

[louie-m]

Referring to the time between 1st and then second dose.

Right. I'm with you now.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So pretty much every state other than VIC and QLD are in the same ballpark as NSW (or better).

You're assuming there hasn't been any people vaccinating in different states (1st in VIC, 2nd in NSW). People on this forum have suggested doing this exact thing.

What about people who got the first dose and decided against a second?

So many factors here. You just can't extrapolate the figures to say NSW has got more Pfizer than others (or at least more than VIC) based on this.

To be clear I have no real issue for this, and I am not disgruntled about it. I just believe it is what the numbers would suggest.

I doubt people getting doses in another states would make significantly much difference. And certainly when the large CBD hubs opened to they were also used by some non-Victorians.

I do know that when the surge was on to vaccinate hospital staff that many I know were given AZ, whereas the repots elsewhere seemed to be more Pfizer.

If you have a theory that would explain the number better than my theory I would be happy to hear it.

 

[justinbrett]

To be clear I have no real issue for this, and I am not disgruntled about it. I just believe it is what the numbers would suggest.

I doubt people getting doses in another states would make significantly much difference. And certainly when the large CBD hubs opened to they were also used by some non-Victorians.

I do know that when the surge was on to vaccinate hospital staff that many I know were given AZ, whereas the repots elsewhere seemed to be more Pfizer.

If you have a theory that would explain the number better than my theory I would be happy to hear it.

I mean, without stating the bleeding obvious, when there's been a rush of new vaccines in the last few weeks, all of them first doses, of course that's going to skew the stats to be first dose heavy.

As late as 23 May the difference between the two states was around 1% for the 2nd dose proportion. That's really pulled away in the last few weeks (forgive my crude Excel graph, NSW vs VIC 1st doses and 2nd doses - I'm sure you can work out which line is which).

 

[openseat]

Being in the 50-59 age group, I have had my first dose of AZ. I'm inclined to have my second dose as a Pfizer dose given the Canadian Government advice on the issue and the successful outcome of mixing the two, despite the recommendation of the Australian Health Authorities.

Archived 12: NACI rapid response: Interchangeability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines [2021-06-01] - Canada.ca

Advice on the interchangeability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines in a two-dose primary series schedule for COVID-19 immunization in Canada.

www.canada.ca

 

[Pushka]

Being in the 50-59 age group, I have had my first dose of AZ. I'm inclined to have my second dose as a Pfizer dose given the Canadian Government advice on the issue and the successful outcome of mixing the two, despite the recommendation of the Australian Health Authorities.

Archived 12: NACI rapid response: Interchangeability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines [2021-06-01] - Canada.ca

Advice on the interchangeability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines in a two-dose primary series schedule for COVID-19 immunization in Canada.

www.canada.ca

If you were fine with the first dose then the second would likely present no issues but speak with your Dr before making that decision.

 

[OATEK]

Being in the 50-59 age group, I have had my first dose of AZ. I'm inclined to have my second dose as a Pfizer dose given the Canadian Government advice on the issue and the successful outcome of mixing the two, despite the recommendation of the Australian Health Authorities.

Archived 12: NACI rapid response: Interchangeability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines [2021-06-01] - Canada.ca

Advice on the interchangeability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines in a two-dose primary series schedule for COVID-19 immunization in Canada.

www.canada.ca

Always your own choice, but "the UK has reported a clotting rate of 1.5 per million second doses compared to 14.2 per million first doses", so the second dose is about 10 times less likely than the first dose to cause clots. On this basis my daughter has just had her 2nd dose of AZ in the UK (aged 41) having got through the first dose without a clotting issue.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

As late as 23 May the difference between the two states was around 1% for the 2nd dose proportion. ).

Your graph does not show a 1 % difference between the two states for second doses.

 

[justinbrett]

Your graph does not show a 1 % difference between the two states for second doses.

It's there (stats from Covidlive if you want to check my working):
23 May 21
VIC: (8.5%)

851,337

72,806

NSW (9.6%)

1,000,770

96,745