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So what routes will VA cut ?

jb747

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They will have to run SYD-CBR more than that surely, even if they run it at a loss...
I'd expect that you'll see a lot less of "running at a loss", just for market share. If it isn't profitable, they simply won't do it. And neither, I expect, will the opposition.
 
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jakeseven7

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I'd expect that you'll see a lot less of "running at a loss", just for market share. If it isn't profitable, they simply won't do it. And neither, I expect, will the opposition.
I suppose you are right, I mean that is how they collapsed in the first place at the very crux of it, running at a loss for years and years.
 

BNEFlyer

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I’m surprised with Mildura, that was once daily which wasn’t suited to business travellers however it was previously an E190 route so the 737 maybe uneconomical.
They flew 737's MEL-MQL too, so if VA see a market there they could go back with the jets.
 

Mattg

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I'd expect that you'll see a lot less of "running at a loss", just for market share. If it isn't profitable, they simply won't do it. And neither, I expect, will the opposition.
I agree that VA will no longer run flights for the sake of market share/because they can. But CBR-SYD flights are an important feeder into the rest of the network... even if the CBR-SYD flights don't make money on their own, they may be a loss leader that brings enough overall value to the rest of the business to justify their existence.
 

eastwest101

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I agree that VA will no longer run flights for the sake of market share/because they can. But CBR-SYD flights are an important feeder into the rest of the network... even if the CBR-SYD flights don't make money on their own, they may be a loss leader that brings enough overall value to the rest of the business to justify their existence.

Canberra is a bit of a weird one, its essentially a public service market which is actually pretty high yield, because its not price sensetive - mostly "other peoples money", if an airline does not fly CBR-SYD, CBR-MEL and CBR-BNE then its essentially ruling itself out of contention for the entire Federal Government spend - anywhere from lobbyists to all the federal government departments such as Defence/Immigration etc, a pretty large market that is totally unaffected by recessions, tourism and Covid-19, something I would have thought an airline struggling to get profitability would go at.

The new VA2 obviously has the wrong equipment to do frequency on SYD-CBR but I would argue that VA must serve CBR in some capacity as all the aviation decision making is done in Canberra, and in the federal sphere, so a lack of presence in CBR means that all aviation industry decision making will take place in the QF Chairmans Lounge in CBR, not something I would risk if I were Bain.

Once the state borders issue is resolved, and if the country is going into recession with international borders essentially closed then all airlines will need to adapt their networks to suit the customers and markets, whether it domestic tourism or markets unaffected by the recession (e.g. government, resources industry, etc).

Other comments about Rex being a natural fit with the new VA2 are obvious to everyone in the entire world except the board rooms of Rex and VA, I thought the initial Rex talk of jet operations in the golden triangle was simply positioning/posturing and/or an "plan B" if VA2 was dead on arrival and went into administration, but Rex are serious and are still recruiting, and there is a sizeable unemployed workforce and many aircraft available cheaply either through ownership or lease, if Rex did go with the golden triangle jet option then they are only carrier that can get you from one capital to another regional destination in a different state on one ticket, besides Qantas, they already have terminal space and staff at airports and this would give them a massive advantage in getting both federal and state government travel as well, and at a lower cost base than Qantas. Remember - Rex will never be allowed to go broke and shut down as long as people in the regions vote, and if Rex are comfortable enough to back themselves then they might be the only competitor to the Qantas group armed with endless subsidies and state and federal government support.
 

blackandwhite

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SYD/ABX cut is interesting. Told plenty of public servants living in Albury region (ATO etc). Yes there were 3 airlines doing it & virgin won't have any atrs, but alliance has 3 different fokkers that could get in & out of ABX.

Saw that Nauru were looking to fly a Boeing 737-300 BNE/ABX direct for seasonal flights for Flight Centre I think it was. Apparently can get in & out with little problem. Virgin seems to have retained 2 Boeing 737-700 which are the same size as a 737-300 aren't they, but with better engines etc. So surely Virgin could operate a 737-700 SYD/ABX/SYD as is longer than SYD/CBR/SYD & qantas was operating SYD/CBR with 737s.

Surely everyone would prefer a jet over qantas or rex turboprops.
 

Bundy Bear

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Alliance is stopping Brisbane-Bundaberg, thought this route was always marginal and finally got the chop.

Weren't alliance purchasing some E190s they would be good for Sydney-Canberra; Sydney-Coffs Harbour.

For the next 12 months I am sure Bain will just stick to flights that make money.
 

antycbr

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Alliance is stopping Brisbane-Bundaberg, thought this route was always marginal and finally got the chop.

Weren't alliance purchasing some E190s they would be good for Sydney-Canberra; Sydney-Coffs Harbour.

For the next 12 months I am sure Bain will just stick to flights that make money.
Alliance have blamed the Queensland Government border closures for the cancellation of the route.
 

mrmerc500

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It is a shame that VA aren’t keeping the ATR’s as a versatile option to maintain a regional feeder into their east coast city routes & also explore new opportunities where the small aircraft could be the right sized for the market.

Looking at VA’s schedule for CBR with services recommencing in February, they’re only prepared to offer 2 daily flights to Sydney, certainly a massive downgrade to QF’s upto daily 15/16 flights.

Could there be a market for the ATR fo open up new or expending frequency’...Mildura to Canberra?.... could Mildura continued to be an integrated option with a web circuit from Melb through to SYD & CBR...
 
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antycbr

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It is a shame that VA aren’t keeping the ATR’s as a versatile option to maintain a regional feeder into their east coast city routes & also explore new opportunities where the small aircraft could be the right sized for the market.

Looking at VA’s schedule for CBR with services recommencing in February, they’re only prepared to offer 2 daily flights to Sydney, certainly a massive downgrade to QF’s upto daily 15/16 flights.

Could there be a market for the ATR fo open up new or expending frequency’...Mildura to Canberra?.... could Mildura continued to be an integrated option with a web circuit from Melb through to SYD & CBR...
Virgin simply couldnt make money on them - like a lot of Borghetti ideas they were stillborn (the fleet never grew to the appropriate scale/size to make it effective, and I suspect the lease costs were sky high).

NZ makes extensive use of ATRs for their operations so they can work with the right operator and cost base.

By far the most logical outcome for Australian aviation would be a partnership with Rex to do the regional flying... after all Rex was formed from components of AN's regional flying - but given that Rex are about to go head to head with VA that seems remote.
 

Bundy Bear

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Virgin simply couldnt make money on them - like a lot of Borghetti ideas they were stillborn (the fleet never grew to the appropriate scale/size to make it effective, and I suspect the lease costs were sky high).

NZ makes extensive use of ATRs for their operations so they can work with the right operator and cost base.

By far the most logical outcome for Australian aviation would be a partnership with Rex to do the regional flying... after all Rex was formed from components of AN's regional flying - but given that Rex are about to go head to head with VA that seems remote.
Rex were taking on 6 of the 737 ex VA so hopefully it 6 months Rex will give up on the 737s and go and code share with Virgin.

Australian country towns are small in comparison and a 68 seat plane just doesn't work in regional Australia unless you have a great big network like Qantas to support it.
 

ja1

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I suppose you are right, I mean that is how they collapsed in the first place at the very crux of it, running at a loss for years and years.
I had a slightly different thought process on how good your analytics (and data feed) is to work out which if any routes you run at a loss against the overall network/route profit.

e.g. if you were doing CBR-SYD-HKG and the CBR-SYD was a (small?) loss but the SYD-HKG wasn't.. then you'd rather cross subsidize the route than not have the yield on the latter route.. where the profit may more than offset a domestic loss.

There would be some routes you wouldn't do as no other route subsidizes them enough to show a total profit..
 

jakeseven7

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PS did an in-depth interview with Australian Aviation and cites flying domestically seasonally a lot more like Qantas starting doing internationally, rather than all round year services as a rule.

So that might see more routes go to seasonal over being cut completely.
 

jakeseven7

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There is also a rumour going around that VA2/Bain May cut inflight entertainment all together and just leave it with WIFI.

They better improve their wifi speed (was never as good as QFd for some reason) and not charge....

Rumour source: Laid off VA1 worker so take with grain of salt.
 

oz_mark

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There is also a rumour going around that VA2/Bain May cut inflight entertainment all together and just leave it with WIFI.

They better improve their wifi speed (was never as good as QFd for some reason) and not charge....

Rumour source: Laid off VA1 worker so take with grain of salt.
They didn't have much content of interest to me, so I don't see it as a great loss. (Other may have a different view)
 

exceladdict

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If they made free, faster wifi a gold/plat benefit - or at the least allow multiple devices to connect simultaneously - I'd be ok with that for sure.
 
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