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so what routes will VA cut ?

ozfflyer

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Dec 22, 2018
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this needs it's own thread. Below is what I think will happen.

Bali will go. Very low yield surely.

Golden triangle plus CBR is safe & any flights in/out of CBR (most are high yield)

BNE/SYD/MEL/ADL to PER safe.

Might be reduction is flights to NAN, VLI, HIR especially in low season. FJ have cut some flights to NAN.

HKG ? Might drop either SYD or MEL, assuming the A330s stay.

Heard VA paying top dollar to lease them.

This will allow connection to VS to LHR.

Then if A330s stay, might use them on some PER routes to SYD/MEL or ?
(guess a lot depends on whether VA can get out of A330 leases cheaply or not)

PER/AKL nonstop ? Otherwise changing terminals at BNE, SYD, MEL is painful.

Maybe replace a few SYD/AKL B738s with some A330s ?

BNE/SYD/MEL/ADL to CNS might be reduced.

BNE & SYD to TSV might be reduced.

Flights BNE/SYD/MEL to ZQN might be reduced, esp BNE/ZQN - 8/WEEK in winter seems excessive, especially when prices for everything in Queenstown have gone up a lot.

Read somewhere that Alliance getting another more F70/F100s, so maybe they could take over more of VA's thin routes ?

What about SYD/ABX ? Put an F70 on there or even BNE/ABX. Jetgo did it daily in their E135s. Jetgos small jets lacked economies of scale.

HOWEVER, VA have to be careful, they don't open the door for more JQ services.
 
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Alyopsis

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Did SYD-LST on Tuesday, one of my semi regular routes and a single daily service that's got to be on the radar for the chop. I think most of those single daily flights are at risk - Ballina, Coffs etc.

Anyway, the LST flight was about 2/3 full, 5 of 8 seats in J taken. Nice flight, satay chicken skewers and great FA in J, nice views of Flinders Island. Jetstar would suck after that.

Anyone know what the loads are like on HBA-PER and OOL-PER? It would be a shame is such innovative routes went.
 

Ausbt

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And when do we think those cuts will occur? I've got SYD-DPS and SYD-HKG bookings Dec/Jan.
 

ozfflyer

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And when do we think those cuts will occur? I've got SYD-DPS and SYD-HKG bookings Dec/Jan.
apart from golden triangle & PER, ADL, CBR, many other routes only make money in school holidays, so no way would DPS or HKG be cut before start of Feb.
 

ozfflyer

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Did SYD-LST on Tuesday, one of my semi regular routes and a single daily service that's got to be on the radar for the chop. I think most of those single daily flights are at risk - Ballina, Coffs etc.

Anyway, the LST flight was about 2/3 full, 5 of 8 seats in J taken. Nice flight, satay chicken skewers and great FA in J, nice views of Flinders Island. Jetstar would suck after that.

Anyone know what the loads are like on HBA-PER and OOL-PER? It would be a shame is such innovative routes went.
forgot about Tassie. Is it still part of OZ or an international flight ?
 

pauly7

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And when do we think those cuts will occur? I've got SYD-DPS and SYD-HKG bookings Dec/Jan.
PS has in the media said ‘end of this (calendar) year’ but who knows...
 

ozfflyer

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Don’t ask me :)
most destinations should be close to 80 or 90% sold for all of Jan by now (at least in a normal year, which this year certainly isn't)

Just spoke to a travel agent, who mostly does international leisure travel & he said a big percentage of his regulars, around 40%, who usually go overseas at end of every year aren't going anywhere, at least not overseas. He said many were doctors, lawyers, accountants, dentists.
 
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pauly7

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most destinations should be close to 80 or 90% sold for all of Jan by now(at least in a normal year)
Doesn’t mean they are making money I suppose... and maybe the routes he is referring to are not...
 

ozfflyer

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just looked & found hundreds of frequent flyer seats to CNS from BNE, SYD, MEL both Qantas & Virgin in school holidays which are only 2 weeks away. Know MEL people don't fly in AFL finals season, but that's not usual to have so many ff seats at short notice. Guess if can't sell them, make them available to frequent flyers.
 

The-Aviator

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Might sound a bit counter-intuitive but I also hope they take this opportunity while cutting in some places to look at what existing routes could do with additional service and also, which new and innovative routes could be introduced should they have capacity. Wish list would include seasonal service from Broome to the East Coast and on the short haul international side, new Pacific Island destinations.
 

Frequent boarder

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Might sound a bit counter-intuitive but I also hope they take this opportunity while cutting in some places to look at what existing routes could do with additional service and also, which new and innovative routes could be introduced should they have capacity. Wish list would include seasonal service from Broome to the East Coast and on the short haul international side, new Pacific Island destinations.
What new pacific island destinations?
 

Saab34

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Hervey Bay, Mildura, Ballina, Proserpine, Dunedin would be most certainly at risk. Christchurch market is declining.

Cairns would just be frequency seasonal mods. They only so Melbourne once daily year round and three times to Sydney. Brisbane is already being subbed with the F100.

Pacific Islands things like Tonga to Auckland, Vanuatu (lost the government contract). Strange new routes like Bali to Darwin. Bali mabye just pulled back to red eye from Sydney and Brisbane.

USA forget it. Very strong support from PS in regards to trans pac today in his interviews. United has just pulled a lot of capacity out.

just looked & found hundreds of frequent flyer seats to CNS from BNE, SYD, MEL both Qantas & Virgin in school holidays which are only 2 weeks away. Know MEL people don't fly in AFL finals season, but that's not usual to have so many ff seats at short notice. Guess if can't sell them, make them available to frequent flyers.
Cairns now moving onto off season so not unusual. Cairns will most certainly be a problem this coming Jan/Feb after this year’s weather washout sending nervous travelers to other destinations rather than risking it.

Today’s Happy had 10% off flights in the next two weeks which further indicates rolling weak demand as I have not seen an offer like this before
 
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pauly7

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Might sound a bit counter-intuitive but I also hope they take this opportunity while cutting in some places to look at what existing routes could do with additional service and also, which new and innovative routes could be introduced should they have capacity.
I don’t think it’s counter intuitive.

It’s really taking a leaf from the QF playbook, build up a customer base with seasonal flights to test the market and go from there. They’ve built back up from nothing a lot of leisure markets by picking up all the premium pax. VA could put in play a similar-ish strategy that suits their new brand positioning.

Also VA aren’t going to make more money by leaving planes on the ground are they... they just need to right size. So you might see some routes get more frequency as some are cut. Makes sense to me.
 

HS-TQE

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Scurrah just recently expressed support for the SQ and DL partnerships when it came to the topic of Alliances.

On a related note, I do agree that TransPac is not likely to be affected at this time considering PS spoke more highly of VA's partnership with DL than the others, although SQ got a mention..

Although the refusal to mention EY and HU/HX (probably related to their own financial issues) suggests they have less clout in the VA boardroom those days, and still puts HKG in the chopping line.

 

Bundy Bear

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Mildura, Bundaberg, Kununurra (if they still fly there), Port Macquarie, Concurry, Coffs Harbour, Port Moresby, Raratonga, Honiara, and some decreases to NZ, Auckland should be ok without Emirates flying Trans Tasman, flights to and from Sydney like Townsville, Cairns, Hobart and Launceston will most likely go with flights via Brisbane going to Qld or south to Tassie will go via Melbourne.
Proserpine as it’s leisure should be ok, but could be served by Alliance Fokker 100s. Gladstone likely to stay just with Fokker 70/100s

Some of these places might stay because of some contracts but they will be dropped if the contract doesn’t get changed although Alliance could take over any contract flying if it’s in reach of a Fokker 100.
 

pauly7

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Mildura, Bundaberg, Kununurra (if they still fly there), Port Macquarie, Concurry, Coffs Harbour, Port Moresby, Raratonga, Honiara, and some decreases to NZ, Auckland should be ok without Emirates flying Trans Tasman, flights to and from Sydney like Townsville, Cairns, Hobart and Launceston will most likely go with flights via Brisbane going to Qld or south to Tassie will go via Melbourne.
Proserpine as it’s leisure should be ok, but could be served by Alliance Fokker 100s. Gladstone likely to stay just with Fokker 70/100s

Some of these places might stay because of some contracts but they will be dropped if the contract doesn’t get changed although Alliance could take over any contract flying if it’s in reach of a Fokker 100.
Any strategy that involves using Alliance more is throwing money at QF as well...
 

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