Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[dajop]

Maybe LHR, CDG and FCO might be it

Perhaps JFK as well?

 

[jase05]

Perhaps JFK as well?

Yes, I should have stated European destinations.

 

[Doddler]

Yep, it’s definitely the way forward for QF.
Be interesting to see what their end game is and how many Sunrise destinations they end up with in 5-10 years time. Maybe LHR, CDG and FCO might be it

They need to be premium/business destinations I guess. I'm a bit surprised Rome is on that list on that basis, rather than Frankfurt or Munich, though of course Rome is a far bigger tourist and family visit destination for Australians. As would be Greece, so maybe that's a future option.

Ah, and just as I was writing that, I come across an article out just today on Executive Traveller (not linked as imagine it's a competitor to this fine site), in which Qantas International CEO Cam Wallace says:

“There’s a whole bunch of markets like Greece and Germany that we’ve flown to before on a connecting basis that we’ll look at (for direct flights),”

 

[elanshin]

Be interesting to see what their end game is and how many Sunrise destinations they end up with in 5-10 years time. Maybe LHR, CDG and FCO might be it

Forgot the other side of the pond. JFK definitely, but other cities like ORD might get a look in too.

 

[Doddler]

Forgot the other side of the pond. JFK definitely, but other cities like ORD might get a look in too.

Same article I mentioned above said they're considering Seattle, Chicago and Vegas.

 

[jase05]

Same article I mentioned above said they're considering Seattle, Chicago and Vegas.

They don’t need Sunrise aircraft for them though do they?
Nothing stopping QF flying there now if they really wanted to

 

[dajop]

They need to be premium/business destinations I guess. I'm a bit surprised Rome is on that list on that basis, rather than Frankfurt or Munich, though of course Rome is a far bigger tourist and family visit destination for Australians. As would be Greece, so maybe that's a future option.

Rome is barely served by SQ, and isn't by CX, which would suggest the premium traffic perhaps isn't that compelling. Would have though FRA or even ZRH might have supported more premium traffic.

Same article I mentioned above said they're considering Seattle, Chicago and Vegas.

Seattle and Vegas surely wouldn't need Sunrise aircraft, if the 787's can go to DFW, they can certainly make it to either SEA or LAS. ORD they can from BNE (it was going to launch until COVID hit(), but SYD seemed a stretch IIRC.

 

[jase05]

Seattle and Vegas surely wouldn't need Sunrise aircraft, if the 787's can go to DFW, they can surely make it to either SEA or LAS?

Yep, they already fly to YVR too so SEA and LAS would easily be doable if they wanted.
ORD might be a tad too far

 

[Doddler]

They don’t need Sunrise aircraft for them though do they?
Nothing stopping QF flying there now if they really wanted to

I imagine they need at least 787s to make it economically viable. Right now I guess they don't have sufficient aircraft.

 

[moa999]

Qantas only have 12 Sunrise aircraft. They get used up very quickly on these long routes, and you need certain route characteristics to support the high number of F and J seats, which you in turn need to make the aircraft fly the diatance.

SYD-LHR and MEL-LHR will be 22-23 hours.
Ergo a full return trip with time for load and unload will be over two days..
So you need three aircraft each just for daily SYD-LHR and MEL-LHR.. that's half the fleet gone with some maintenance time built in. Add PER-LHR is another two, SYD-JFK another two and you're pretty much done with one aircraft in near constant maintenance.

What Qantas will have is more spare 787s and so I think you might see more use of SIN as a scissor hub. 787 from MEL, BNE, 380 from SYD, XLR from ADL and then onto say CDG, FRA, LHR and BOM respectively.

 

[RB001]

Rome is barely served by SQ, and isn't by CX,

CX to Rome is similar to Qantas - a few days a week roughly April-October.

 

[dajop]

SYD-LHR and MEL-LHR will be 22-23 hours.

Don't think it changes the maths around the plane requirements but flying time SYD-LHR should be <22 hrs and LHR-SYD <20 hrs.

If you add SYD-PER + PER-LHR it comes to about 21:40 flying time (and 20:10 or thereabouts in the other direction). Repeat these calculations with SYD-DXB+DXB-LHR or SYD-DOH+DOH-LHR you get similar results or even less.

Of course you've got to add in ground time at either end, but you also eliminate one approach and one take off.

 

[anat0l]

But i don’t know whether you’ll need the Perth non-stop then?

Deploy the 787 somewhere else where you could do a return in 24 hours, maximising yield.

The state capitals can funnel via SIN.

I thought the Perthites may have a lot to say if you take away PER/LHR. Sure, the economics of sustaining the route purely on the dreams of Western Australia and associated tourism (or business/industry) is arguably marginal.....

 

[burneracc]

I thought the Perthites may have a lot to say if you take away PER/LHR. Sure, the economics of sustaining the route purely on the dreams of Western Australia and associated tourism (or business/industry) is arguably marginal.....

This route is sustainable purely on people with British family / expats travelling back and forth. Staggering amount of UK passports can be seen on QF9/10 (myself included). This is because Perth is overrepresented in British migration.

The stats back it up FYI, but to save you a click, the 2021 census recorded ~170k British born residents in Perth out of the approx 2.3m population, so 7.5% BORN in the UK, plus associated family born in Aus but British by descent. Contrast this with the British proportion of Australian population being 3.5% nationwide.

PER-LHR is going absolutely nowhere for the time being.

2021 People in Greater Perth who were born in England, Census Country of birth QuickStats | Australian Bureau of Statistics

www.abs.gov.au

Australia's population by country of birth, Jun 2024

Statistics on Australia's estimated resident population by country of birth

www.abs.gov.au

 

[Daver6]

I thought the Perthites may have a lot to say if you take away PER/LHR. Sure, the economics of sustaining the route purely on the dreams of Western Australia and associated tourism (or business/industry) is arguably marginal.....

Isn't it the most profitable route QF operate internationally?

 

[justinbrett]

Isn't it the most profitable route QF operate internationally?

Yup. This is crazy talk that QF would drop the route. The fact QF9/10 lost its MEL leg is proof enough I would have thought.

 

[mbe1510]

Sunrise is going to steal many of the price insensitive corporates and wealthy because of the convenience factor. Indeed, that's the whole point of these planes and why they are so premium heavy.

Once you take out those high yielding passengers, the SIN service becomes uneconomical. They're now competing with a range of carriers for largely price-sensitive customers. The number of people who are blindly loyal to Qantas yet unwilling to stump up for a non-stop flight or accept a one-stop via PER is vanishingly small. That's why Qantas has cut SIN-LHR from 2x A380s to 1x A380. And that's without Sunrise!!

A lot of the times the QF1/2 is cheaper between Singapore and London than SQ and also BA so I suspect there will still be a role for Qantas on that route in picking up passengers. Question is will it still pack out the A380 if it starts in Sydney as obviously it has a lot more international appeal than Melbourne.

 

[elanshin]

A lot of the times the QF1/2 is cheaper between Singapore and London than SQ and also BA so I suspect there will still be a role for Qantas on that route in picking up passengers. Question is will it still pack out the A380 if it starts in Sydney as obviously it has a lot more international appeal than Melbourne.

Yes it will. SQ does not fly 4 (probably 5 once WSI opens for the late night slot) flights to SIN on their biggest planes for fun. Even QF runs 2-3 daily flights themselves. Singapore is quickly becoming the South East (and general non China) Asian corporate central as well slowly taking over from HK. Plenty of customers as is just flying Australia to SIN.

The SIN - LHR part is on top of that. Also lots of Aussies living in Singapore too and with Changi's status I've even had my soon to be in-laws request Changi transit to Malaysia (non KL) instead of KUL.