Qantas A380 refurbishment news and updates.

Additional frames probably not required if passenger volumes are as forecast .i.e. <50% of 2019. If return trip frequency is cut to 3-4 times a week surely the existing frames & deliveries will cover more destinations than previously?

Indeed, however my question was based on JB747's position of "ignoring Covid for the moment".

Now if you take COVID-19 into account, well, it immediately becomes a totally different ballgame – one in which even estimates are more like guesstimates – but you'd have to expect that a lot of flights would not bounce straight back to daily but begin at 3-4x as you say, so sufficient B787s to go around for the short term if that's the case.
 
Indeed, however my question was based on JB747's position of "ignoring Covid for the moment".

Now if you take COVID-19 into account, well, it immediately becomes a totally different ballgame – one in which even estimates are more like guesstimates – but you'd have to expect that a lot of flights would not bounce straight back to daily but begin at 3-4x as you say, so sufficient B787s to go around for the short term if that's the case.
I’ll stick to my prediction that the A380 will not fly for Qantas again. IF they do it will be short term only.
 
I’ll stick to my prediction that the A380 will not fly for Qantas again. IF they do it will be short term only.
That would mean QF would stop flying F at least temporarily as the A380 is the only plane in the fleet fitted with F
 
My understanding is that CASA still have not approved ETOPS beyond 180 minutes. As Boeing were very much involved in self certifying for that originally, and not the FAA, I’d expect that it’s being given a lot of scrutiny. Beyond that though, and ignoring Covid for the moment, if you’re going to send 787s everywhere, you might need a couple more.

I would not discount the possibility of some silver-grey, (with a touch of orange) coloured 787s changing colours.

I’ll stick to my prediction that the A380 will not fly for Qantas again. IF they do it will be short term only.

If they do fly, I think it will just be SYD-LAX and SYD-LHR. That will be it.
 
I would not discount the possibility of some silver-grey, (with a touch of orange) coloured 787s changing colours.

Also changing seats, one hopes! By memory, didn’t the JQ 787s lack the overhead pilots’ rest area? (I recall some of the pseudo-J seats having a deeper recline because they were earmarked to be blocked and used by crew for resting on flights above eight hours?)

If so, then maybe any Boeing 787s which transition from JQ to QF might have to be rostered onto the shortest QF routes (unless crew bunks after retrofitted).
 
The US treasury secretary stated in TV overnight it was way too soon to say whether the US will lift travel bans to non citizens before 2021.
 
I think people are forgetting there is a reasonable group of people who are just itching to get back to their CL and a comfortable F seat.We do have our fair share of politicians here in Australia and a lot of the more senior ones like the F lifestyle often accompanied by their current partner/staff member.
The lesser pollies are quite happy taking up the J cabin.
I'm sure there will have to be many International junkets-sorry serious business meetings for them to catch up on.
 
This would be the worst thing to happen in this entire situation! Why fly at all then? 😂
I have only flown F on the one trip. I doubt I'll be flying F again any time soon even after travel recommences, though if J points seats are unavailable but F seats are then I may reconsider.
 
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As a pure touch'n'go DRW is almost perfectly on the Great Circle Route for SYD-LHR, and 500mi shorter than via PER.
Still better for MEL-LHR as well

Did anyone track how long the aircraft was on the ground in DRW. I assume there is some minimum time to cool brakes etc.

I referred to the latter (time on ground in DRW) in a couple of cases (generally southbound i.e. from LHR) when there were delays. It took longer than the timetabled allowance, for what reason(s) I do not know.

If you are so inclined trawl backwards through the QF delays/cancellations thread elsewhere on AFF to find exact times. If this blog was easier to search I'd do a link but to be fair most blogs are like that, and I for one cannot always recall what words I used.
 
Just updating: Qantas has pumped the brakes on its A380 upgrade program, drawing the line at six refurb’d birds, and is considering retiring some superjumbos rather than bringing all 12 back into the air.

Here’s what Qantas CEO Alan Joyce told me during this morning’s media briefing: “There is potential to bring all 12 back (into service), but there is a potential to bring less than 12 back. That will depend on what the recovery scenario looks like.”


Gosh, with all the money he's paid how come he doesn't know when to use 'fewer' instead of less?'

That second paragraph is meaningless. 50 cents each way.
 
That second paragraph is meaningless.

Surely you would expect a good strategist to plan and prepare for multiple scenarios; to be prepared to take the maximum advantage of any eventuality and also not to telegraph exactly what his plans are and give anything away to any current (or considering to be) competitors.
 
Surely you would expect a good strategist to plan and prepare for multiple scenarios; to be prepared to take the maximum advantage of any eventuality and also not to telegraph exactly what his plans are and give anything away to any current (or considering to be) competitors.

Agreed - I would expect nothing less (or should that be “nothing fewer”?)
 
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Reports on airliners.net that OQD received a full refurb and repaint in AUH.

So that gives 6 refurbs - OQD, OQG, OQH, OQI, OQJ, OQK
(assuming OQG and OQI were finished in DRS)
Of the refurbs OQH and OQI still have the 2007 Roo livery along with OQE.

Interestingly the youngest A380 OQL is in the old config.

Hopefully we get to see them back in passenger service.
 
Hopefully we get to see them back in passenger service.

Yes I hope so but I am not hopeful. The decision to reintroduce will be based on profitability not nostalgia. The long range four engined plane is virtually a thing of the past (the airlines that still have them can’t underwite the replacement CAPEX to upgrade in better times - my mind turns to the 340-600 SAA birds for some reason ........

Our recovery from the current and future economic circumstances will drive the decision on metal. Pent up demand swung back in a V will be the best circumstances to justify reintroduction of the 380. The reality of that happening is probably not (even theoretically) high, and if you talk to my banking connections even lower.

There are no prohibitions on dreams.
 
Our recovery from the current and future economic circumstances will drive the decision on metal. Pent up demand swung back in a V will be the best circumstances to justify reintroduction of the 380.

It is true there are 1 million unemployed... but there are also 12 million still in work. While we rightly focus on the hardship of those without work, we can't necessarily base the entire recovery of the travel industry on the 1 million?

I'm sure there are endless possibilities for airlines if they think outside the box. Instead of $1200 fares to europe, why not $1800 but have 50% more room for everyone? Partially covers the health issues, and certainly covers the comfort. JAL were turning a nice profit with low density.
 
It is true there are 1 million unemployed... but there are also 12 million still in work. While we rightly focus on the hardship of those without work, we can't necessarily base the entire recovery of the travel industry on the 1 million?

I'm sure there are endless possibilities for airlines if they think outside the box. Instead of $1200 fares to europe, why not $1800 but have 50% more room for everyone? Partially covers the health issues, and certainly covers the comfort. JAL were turning a nice profit with low density.
There's an old joke that many have forgotten within Australia:

"A Recession is when someone you know has lost their job. A Depression is when you lose your job."

The downturn in the 1990s was the first time since the 1920s that doctors, lawyers, accountants etc got laid off in numbers. That's what is happening this time around even now. Yes some medical staff are on job keeper or have been laid off due to elective surgery being cut & equally people have been cancelling other elective surgery due to either their income reductions or job loss.

For those young enough (under 40 or so) not to have lived through a real recession - this is a new experience. How many movies or TV programs have you seen that deal with people living in modern times going through a recession?

Q's A380s are very costly to run vs other airframes. Unless they have a 'premium rich' load & say 85%+ overall then they don't cover their cash costs.

One aspect, that has received very little media coverage, is the inability to get CV travel insurance for less than multiple times the cost of most international holiday costs - say to Hawaii, LA etc. Not that there are any direct flights from Australia to Hawaii (other than perhaps for Scomo).

Many businesses will cut costs where they can - premium travel is always one of the first to go. An easy trade was to sell British Airways when you felt the US growth had peaked - and the guide to that used to be the Merrill Lynch share price. The 1st & business class trans-Atlantic demand would get cut by anywhere up to 90% (from New York).

Long before CV came on the agenda, many businesses cancelled visits to their regional HQs based in HK which was why so many companies (in Australia & the Asia Pacific) were able to move to widespread video conferencing on a much more significant scale earlier this year - they'd already invented the wheel & established greater capacity.

Plan A = some vaccine is developed & rolled out. For low-herd immunity the timeline is around two years from 1st innoculations (if it provides term immunity).

Plan B = no vaccine or only limited term immunity.

Plan A - travel demand is unlikely to surge with the recessionary background in Australia ==> A380s not required but expensive to maintain on the chance they may be needed. However, no writeoff decision needed until June Qtr 2021 other than cost of ongoing maintenance. Zero value for Q's planes on secondary market (which does not actually exist in reality).

Plan B - travel demand to stay depressed for years even though Australia travels through recession, most likely emerging into prolonged period of profitless growth for the economy. The best example of this is the Japanese economy from 1993 to present day. Residential property prices are around early 1980s levels, the Japanese share market was approaching 40,000 in 1989...


... and they had over 64 million in work and only 3 million unemployed. The conventional wisdom was that the Japanese Govt could afford to spend big to get growth going again combined with zero interest rates as Japan had a huge trade surplus...

Japanese Govt debt is around 240% of GDP.

Govt debt has blown out as the spending has never stopped & the economy has flatlined. If Japanese interest rates were to rise 1% - it would require around 50% of total Govt spending to pay the interest on outstanding Govt debt. Add in the other interest costs tied to the Japanese Govt (unfunded liabilities etc) and it is around 80% of Govt spending that would be required. Zero interest rates are not going away anytime soon. Meanwhile the Japanese population has been falling since 2007. Dropped by over 500,000 in 2019 alone.


Two guesses why Australia has been running net immigration at around 250,000/yr for the last 5 years....

Australia has just about the worst 4 year profile BEFORE CV for rate of growth of Govt debt of an OECD country. True we started at low levels but have been adding to it at a world beating rate.

I'd like to be wrong but I fear Q A380s will not even get to do a farewell tour,
 
You know, EK plans to fly them again. If QF can’t work out a way to make them profitable then perhaps they need to get rid of them. Perhaps one of the least inspiring configurations anyway... droopy beds, no showers, no bars. Hardly appealing to the premium market as it was. Their product was hardly competitive :(
 

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