Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

Though you may have to try and find an airline that accepts non vaccinated passengers.... suspect all the majors will...

I think most airlines and commentators (medical and otherwise) have come out to clarify that any restrictions will be government imposed, not airline. The airlines will be responsible - as they are now - for making sure passengers have the correct documentation, for example a certificate of vaccination.

Even if QF could change its terms and conditions to require vaccinations for people booking on the Australian site, could they do the same in other countries such as the US or China?

 

[jase05]

Even if QF could change its terms and conditions to require vaccinations for people booking on the Australian site, could they do the same in other countries such as the US or China?

I can’t see why not.
QF can surely decide who can or can’t travel on their airline and simply no certificate no boarding

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I can’t see why not.
QF can surely decide who can or can’t travel on their airline and simply no certificate no boarding

Qantas would be bound by the conditions of their licence and associated permissions to fly into wherever they are going... US, China, Europe etc. Let's say a US president stated 'vaccinations aren't mandatory and you can't refuse carriage if someone isn't vaccinated'. That would leave QF with little or no wriggle room.

If looking at Australian travel, how would an airline retrospectively impose the condition on all the current tickets they are selling? That could mean travel without a vaccine until at least November 2021, or even later depending on when Qantas updates their terms - again, if they are able to do so.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I don't know whether airlines can impose it in themselves or not.

But countries can. For example as with vaccination for Yellow Fever.

Yellow fever requirements for inbound travellers | South African Tourism (GL)

All you need to know about yellow fever vaccination or inoculation before you visit South Africa.

www.southafrica.net

Inbound traveller – here's all you need to know about yellow fever vaccination or inoculation before you visit our country.

South Africa requires all travellers journeying from yellow fever risk countries to show proof of yellow fever vaccination by means of a valid yellow fever certificate.

This also applies to those who have transited through a yellow fever risk country.

The certificates, which are valid for 10 years, must be approved by the World Health Organization, and should be administered at a yellow fever approved vaccination centre at least 10 days before departure to South Africa, as the vaccine only offers protection 10 days after administration.

Failure to produce a valid yellow fever vaccination certificate at a South African port of entry could lead to refusal of entry, or quarantine until your certificate becomes valid. Quarantine will not be longer than six days.

If you have exemption certificate due to medical reasons, you will be allowed entry, but you will be required to report any fever or other symptoms to the health authorities, and you will be placed under surveillance.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I don't know whether airlines can impose it in themselves or not.

But countries can. For example as with vaccination for Yellow Fever.

That's right. Which is in line with other airline chiefs who are saying any requirement would be in conjunction with a government mandate. Airlines would just be implementing the government policy.

 

[CityRail]

Requiring incoming passengers to be vaccinated is going to delay when the borders can open to people from overseas, because not everyone can get vaccinated in time and with the vaccine that they prefer to take.

Moreover, there are many people from other countries, in particular Asian countries who long for high quality western vaccine, and if we refuse entry for them, then how can they come to Australia and take the Australian vaccine?

 

[jase05]

Requiring incoming passengers to be vaccinated is going to delay when the borders can open to people from overseas, because not everyone can get vaccinated in time and with the vaccine that they prefer to take.

Moreover, there are many people from other countries, in particular Asian countries who long for high quality western vaccine, and if we refuse entry for them, then how can they come to Australia and take the Australian vaccine?

No ones suggesting refusing entry are they?
It’s simply vaccinate or go into hotel quarantine at your own cost

 

[CityRail]

No ones suggesting refusing entry are they?
It’s simply vaccinate or go into hotel quarantine at your own cost

The thing is, is there space at the airport that is hygienic for people to be vaccinated on the spot?
Also, I am really concerned that if we are not in the front of the queue for a vaccine, we will not be able to catch the first flight out of Australia and go back to where we come from.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The thing is, is there space at the airport that is hygienic for people to be vaccinated on the spot?

Most vaccines normally need a period of time to become effective. So they would really need to be vaccinated for a set minimum period of time prior to travel and not on the day of travel.

Again using Yellow Fever as an example:

and should be administered at a yellow fever approved vaccination centre at least 10 days before departure to South Africa, as the vaccine only offers protection 10 days after administration.

 

[OATEK]

The thing is, is there space at the airport that is hygienic for people to be vaccinated on the spot?
Also, I am really concerned that if we are not in the front of the queue for a vaccine, we will not be able to catch the first flight out of Australia and go back to where we come from.

There are many questions yet to be answered.

I expect the Vaccination certificate will be a requirement to board a flight to certain destinations, perhaps including Australia, just like needing a valid Visa. The airlines may never need to change any conditions, if Governments put their own rules in place.

There seems little doubt to me that for our international borders to open for arrivals or departures, the Government will have put rules in place about testing, vaccination, quarantine and any related matters. I guess we will just have to wait until they let us in on the details.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Requiring incoming passengers to be vaccinated is going to delay when the borders can open to people from overseas, because not everyone can get vaccinated in time and with the vaccine that they prefer to take.

Moreover, there are many people from other countries, in particular Asian countries who long for high quality western vaccine, and if we refuse entry for them, then how can they come to Australia and take the Australian vaccine?

As lovetravellingoz points out, there may be a mandatory period for the vaccine to become effective, once administered. I think the current vaccines require two shots, either 21 or 28 days apart, respectively. So vaccination on arrival may not be feasible.

For non-citizens or non-PR, the requirement may be outright that you need to be vaccinated before you can board the plane.

For citizens and PR, or for those who cannot take the vaccine on medical grounds, or cannot procure a vaccine in their own country, there may be the requirement to have a permit indicating a place in quarantine on arrival, and possibly that the quarantine is pre-paid. New Zealand has something along these lines as a requirement for those needing visas.

Some things to consider for non-citizens and non-PR is the potential availability of the vaccine in Australia (it may be limited to those who are resident), and the cost. The latter could be quite expensive if there is a requirement for hotel quarantine, and no government subsidy for the vaccine itself.

 

[CityRail]

As lovetravellingoz points out, there may be a mandatory period for the vaccine to become effective, once administered. I think the current vaccines require two shots, either 21 or 28 days apart, respectively. So vaccination on arrival may not be feasible.

For non-citizens or non-PR, the requirement may be outright that you need to be vaccinated before you can board the plane.

For citizens and PR, or for those who cannot take the vaccine on medical grounds, or cannot procure a vaccine in their own country, there may be the requirement to have a permit indicating a place in quarantine on arrival, and possibly that the quarantine is pre-paid. New Zealand has something along these lines as a requirement for those needing visas.

Some things to consider for non-citizens and non-PR is the potential availability of the vaccine in Australia (it may be limited to those who are resident), and the cost. The latter could be quite expensive if there is a requirement for hotel quarantine, and no government subsidy for the vaccine itself.

I would be happy for my foreign family membersto pay fora vaccine in Australia, rather than vaccinated in HK, because there is no western vaccine ordered, and I am seriously concerned about the safety of anything medicial made in China.

Yet if the government even don't provide vaccination on the spot for foreigners, there will be countries who will be locked out of Australia for a while because they have no access to vaccines.

 

[jase05]

I would love some input from those in the medical profession on the article below.
Are these concerns genuine or not?

The AstraZeneca Covid Vaccine Data Isn't Up to Snuff

There's been even more good news this week, this time from the Oxford-AstraZeneca trials. But a closer look reveals some very shaky science.

www.wired.com

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I would be happy for my foreign family membersto pay fora vaccine in Australia, rather than vaccinated in HK, because there is no western vaccine ordered, and I am seriously concerned about the safety of anything medicial made in China.

Yet if the government even don't provide vaccination on the spot for foreigners, there will be countries who will be locked out of Australia for a while because they have no access to vaccines.

Not locked out, but subject to quarantine. They'd potentially have access to the vaccine once they arrived and were in quarantine. But there could be a waitlist for access to quarantine, with associated caps in place.

There could be other issues like whether someone needs to be 'covid free' to have the vaccine or not? So for example someone might have to wait 7 days for a negative test before the vaccine is given. They might be able to to home quarantine after 7 or 14 days or whatever. Who knows.

The critical thing is that for current vaccines it is 21 or 28 days between the two doses that are required. So 'on the spot' possibly won't work.

 

[RAM]

Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine | University of Oxford

Oxford announces interim trial data from its Phase III trials that show its candidate coronavirus vaccine is effective at preventing COVID-19 and offers a high level of protection.

www.ox.ac.uk

The University of Oxford, in collaboration with AstraZeneca plc, today announces interim trial data from its Phase III trials

I wonder if all the mis-reporting of what they released on Nov 17th/18th (Phase II small scale lab results not real world conditions) pressured them to rush 'interim' phase III? As the two different dose sizes rang some 'scientific alarm bells'. Unlike the Phase II results - these are yet to be peer-reviewed.

A report on Bloomberg today is a little unsettling, & follows up an earlier article on why would a Phase II or even Phase III introduce different vaccine doses.

Bloomberg reports today that there was an error in the production which saw a significant enough number of vials only half filled. Seemingly not detected until long after the participants had received the dose, & perhaps both doses. More to come on this.

Astra Vaccine’s 90% Efficacy in Covid Came in Younger Group

The dose of AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid vaccine that showed the highest level of effectiveness was tested in a younger population than a bigger dose that showed less efficacy, according to the head of the U.S. Operation Warp Speed program.

www.bloomberg.com

"The vaccine being developed with Oxford University was 90% effective when a half-dose was given before a full-dose booster, the partners said on Monday. However, that regime was administered to participants in a group whose age was capped at 55, Warp Speed’s Moncef Slaoui said Tuesday in a phone call with reporters."

"The initial half-dose was used in some people because of an error in the quantity of vaccine put into some vials, Slaoui said."

Dosing error turns into lucky punch for AstraZeneca and Oxford

A stroke of good fortune from a dosing error will pave the way for AstraZeneca and Oxford University to submit their COVID-19 vaccine for regulatory clearance.

www.reuters.com

“The reason we had the half-dose is serendipity,” Mene Pangalos, the head of AstraZeneca’s non-oncology research and development, told Reuters.

A larger group who had received two full doses - as planned - resulted in an efficacy read-out of 62%, leading to an overall efficacy of 70% across both dosing patterns.

Around the time when Astra was initiating its partnership with Oxford at the end of April, university researchers were administering doses to trial participants in Britain.

They soon noticed expected side effects such as fatigue, headaches or arm aches were milder than expected, he said.

“So we went back and checked ... and we found out that they had underpredicted the dose of the vaccine by half,” said Pangalos.

He added the company decided to continue with the half dose and administer the full dose booster shot at the scheduled time.

__________________________________​

The Big Pharma spin doctors have been working overtime in finding different ways to label a massive error, calling it the equivalent of good luck, using the 'Penicillin' defense! Doing the numbers (62% growing to 70%) reveals that around 29% of doses produced were half doses (90% efficacy) and just 71% of doses (62% efficacy) measured/produced as intended. Not noticing the difference in volume in the vials - does not instill confidence.

So many unanswered questions - why did the amount per vial change? Did someone notice the error, fix it but not report it? Was this error only detected by the team mentioned above weeks/months after administered & only then was a fix made at the production facility? Or worse - was a decision made by someone on the production side to cover it up?

After all - millions of these doses have already been produced & stockpiled. So potentially every vial stockpiled needs to be inspected to see what amount of vaccine it holds.

Hard to believe such a mistake could be made, but there it is. Calls into doubt any results now due to serious protocol breach.

 

[RAM]

Requiring incoming passengers to be vaccinated is going to delay when the borders can open to people from overseas, because not everyone can get vaccinated in time and with the vaccine that they prefer to take.

Moreover, there are many people from other countries, in particular Asian countries who long for high quality western vaccine, and if we refuse entry for them, then how can they come to Australia and take the Australian vaccine?

Easy, they could just do what happened earlier this year - some Chinese companies buying up all available supplies of PPE in Australia & flying it back to China!

Have not heard anything from the 'National Cabinet' on ensuring vaccines supplies coming into Australia actually stay in Australia. Hopefully this is one lesson that has been noted!

There are many questions yet to be answered.

I expect the Vaccination certificate will be a requirement to board a flight to certain destinations, perhaps including Australia, just like needing a valid Visa. The airlines may never need to change any conditions, if Governments put their own rules in place.

There seems little doubt to me that for our international borders to open for arrivals or departures, the Government will have put rules in place about testing, vaccination, quarantine and any related matters. I guess we will just have to wait until they let us in on the details.

There have been reports in Hawaii of 'fake' CV test results, purchased off the internet, as Hawaii began a requirement for a CV test taken within 72 hours of leaving for Hawaii + its results in October. Subsequently Hawaii has set up a CV test facility (re-purposed shipping container) at the airport which can conduct & process around 6,000 tests/day with a 3 hour delay (USD 125 cost).

Creating some form of 'tamper proof' evidence of being vaccinated that covers the world - would that be a world first? I cannot think of any worldwide database anywhere near that scale other than IP addresses & Manchester United memberships!

Updated: How soon things change.
Requirement for Hawaii pre-travel test proving ineffective, & system set-up to ensure results within timeframe failing.

Percentage of Hawaii travel-related COVID-19 cases up fourfold in November

The percentage of travel-related COVID-19 cases in Hawaii have more than quadrupled since the state began allowing nonessential travel in October, according to new data released by the state Department of Health.

www.staradvertiser.com

Key Hawaii testing partner warns travelers to make other plans; Kauai seeks to exit program

The state’s tourism reopening plan just took two new blows: Kauai wants out temporarily, and CVS, one of the state’s larger trusted-testing partners, has begun telling Hawaii travelers that they should make other coronavirus testing plans.

www.staradvertiser.com

First hand, one of the larger resorts on the Big Island is having US traveller after US traveller testing positive & causing the resort to require all staff to go into 14 day quarantine. So pulling in workers from other resorts that have not re-opened to fill the holes - only to have then be forced into 14 day quarantine - so this resort is looking at closing down completely as they're now paying for nearly 3x their normal workforce. No publicity as they don't want to get tarred as a CV resort for the future & local press are playing along.

A number of these 'travellers' are people from the mainland (what Hawaiians call people from the other US) fleeing to Hawaii to escape CV. Some houses being listed are being sold (cash received not just an offer) with a few days of listing without any inspections done. Same for house/condo rentals.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Bloomberg reports today that there was an error in the production which saw a significant enough number of vials only half filled. Seemingly not detected until long after the participants had received the dose, & perhaps both doses.

As they say, 'things happen for a reason' Seems in this case it was fortunate and produced a good outcome.

I don't see this as being a deal breaker.

 

[Flashback]

I wonder if those that took part in trials, will considered to be vaccinated; or will they still need to get another round (or two) of vaccine on top of that.

 

[drron]

Here is a reason why our politicians will be loathe to open our border early and why a Pacific bubble is unlikely.
'

So on July 15 they had had 62 cases of Covid.
Today it stands at 13783 cases with 70 deaths.
On July 15 Tahiti opened it's borders to all countries.No Quarantine.But needed a negative test 3 days before flight and again 4 days after arrival.But no mandatory masks and a curfew as well.

Coronavirus COVID-19 - Travel Information - Tahiti Tourisme

Papeete, May 12th, 2023 Travel conditions in The Islands of Tahiti Since August 1, 2022, the travel restrictions still in effect between French Polynesia

tahititourisme.com.au

More here about Covid around the Pacific.

Tahiti was a COVID-free paradise — then it let tourists in

As the list of COVID-free Pacific countries gets shorter, governments are battling low testing rates and a dependence on international shipping to keep the virus at bay.

www.abc.net.au

The last story in that link is about a ship off the QLD coast with covid positive crew.It says it is a new mutation not yet known elsewhere.

"That ship, the Sofrana Surville, had passed through several Pacific countries before reaching Australia, including Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia.

Paul Griffin, an Associate Professor at Queensland University who specialises in infectious diseases, said the source of the new strain could not be determined without a genomic match."

 

[oznflfan]

Being new to this forum beginning of this year, discussions must have been boring as batsh*t before COVID.

This is my favourite individual forum though, need to get my break from reality, bring on 2021. I could even live with Bali in a pinch, would be great to support many Balinese who are really struggling with not much help from their government.