Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

MEL_Traveller

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seems like we are always dragging feet, USA / UK is going to be vaccinating people in December ...

I agree. I don't know why our timelines are pushed out so far. Perhaps they don't want to do the metro/regional thing and promise it to people in the city in January, but can't service the country until much later?
 
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dajop

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seems like we are always dragging feet, USA / UK is going to be vaccinating people in December and legit the best these cowards can do is march ? what a joke

Australia was always going to be down the pecking order for vaccine roll out. It's our place in the world. They have more power and more money.

USA/UK also bet big on a vaccine, as it seemed very early on that they had zero chance of suppressing the virus.

On the other hand Australia has been very successful at suppressing the virus, at a personal cost to many Australians, but not the ultimate personal cost in terms of deaths. Putting aside the $$$ and power of different nations, if you were administering a vaccine like this to health care workers, would you direct it to a country where there are currently 3.7 active cases for every million residents (majority strictly quarantined) or somewhere there are 15,000 active cases per million residents (majority loosely or not at all quarantined)?

I'd say in Australia the first targets for vaccines, now, should be those working on the frontline in hotel quarantine.
 

Pom-DownUnder

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Australia was always going to be down the pecking order for vaccine roll out. It's our place in the world. They have more power and more money.

USA/UK also bet big on a vaccine, as it seemed very early on that they had zero chance of suppressing the virus.

On the other hand Australia has been very successful at suppressing the virus, at a personal cost to many Australians, but not the ultimate personal cost in terms of deaths. Putting aside the $$$ and power of different nations, if you were administering a vaccine like this to health care workers, would you direct it to a country where there are currently 3.7 active cases for every million residents (majority strictly quarantined) or somewhere there are 15,000 active cases per million residents (majority loosely or not at all quarantined)?

I'd say in Australia the first targets for vaccines, now, should be those working on the frontline in hotel quarantine.
Im more than happy for the high risk / elderly to get it in countries with high outbreaks, i quite obviously, have a great deal of friends and family in the uk, but december to march when its under licence here is an absolute joke.

the AU/NZ approach has been built around the premise of a vaccine, the idea that you can shut yourself away from the entire world and tell your countries populace that they are prison unless they have a very good note from their parents to let them out the door. if you are going to put your boot on the neck of your people that harshly you better make sure you are going to provide them with the means to get out from under at the very FIRST opportunity, not have them wait at the back of the line like Oliver bloody twist
 

dajop

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Im more than happy for the high risk / elderly to get it in countries with high outbreaks, i quite obviously, have a great deal of friends and family in the uk, but december to march when its under licence here is an absolute joke.

The flipside, is that sometimes it's good to let others be the guinea pigs ......
 

ceetee

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Why such a hurry to get it when it is not fully approved nor has the effectiveness been tested? Remember, the manufacturers can only determine the efficacy at this point, so there will be some time after the general population start getting the shot where they can determine the effectiveness, which is usually way below the efficacy numbers. See this news article for a bit more detail, and pay special attention to the part where they talk about the whooping cough vaccine and how that effectiveness has waned considerably when they changed the formula. The COVID-19 vaccines are coming. Here are five big questions that need answering — ABC News
 
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ayushamity

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Hold on. I thought that the first batch of Oxford (3.8 million doses) are ready on Dec 28 in Melbourne. Add another month for TGA Approval and looking end of Jan.

Why March ? Pfizer arrives overseas in March but Oxford is available much sooner.
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Why such a hurry to get it when it is not fully approved nor has the effectiveness been tested? Remember, the manufacturers can only determine the efficacy point, so there will be some time after the general population start getting the shot where they can determine the effectiveness, which is usually way below the efficacy numbers. See this news article for a bit more detail, and pay special attention to the part where they talk about the whooping cough vaccine and how that effectiveness has waned considerably when they changed the formula.

Because our nanny state will not let us out unless there is a vaccine. And some of us have overseas family we would like to see.
 

ayushamity

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Another important point to note, If the country you want to go to is not vaccinated yet, will they allow you in ?

Eg. Vietnam and other third world countries which wont have a vaccine until end of 2021. Because you can still be infectious with a vaccine so you could spread it to others who are not vaccinated and cause an outbreak
 

Pushka

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Why such a hurry to get it when it is not fully approved nor has the effectiveness been tested? Remember, the manufacturers can only determine the efficacy at this point, so there will be some time after the general population start getting the shot where they can determine the effectiveness, which is usually way below the efficacy numbers. See this news article for a bit more detail, and pay special attention to the part where they talk about the whooping cough vaccine and how that effectiveness has waned considerably when they changed the formula. The COVID-19 vaccines are coming. Here are five big questions that need answering — ABC News
No one other than testers will get it until it is approved so cross that off the list. I will take my chances with a 90% effective scale if it means I can travel and family members can travel and see each other again and we never experience another year like 2020
 
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oznflfan

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Another important point to note, If the country you want to go to is not vaccinated yet, will they allow you in ?

Eg. Vietnam and other third world countries which wont have a vaccine until end of 2021. Because you can still be infectious with a vaccine so you could spread it to others who are not vaccinated and cause an outbreak
Disagree, speaking on SE Asian countries like Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam to a lesser extent, they have huge tourism industries decimated by COVID. They probably all count Australia as a 'safe' country now, and being vaccinated as well I think will open up many many countries to me in 2021 once Scomo lets me out, drugged up to the gunnels with excess vaccine running out my eyeballs.

Might have to get a mobile phone though, looks like QR code or phone based app for vaccination confirmation may be the future. Traditionally leave my work mobile in my sock drawer when I go overseas.
 

RAM

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View attachment 234390

hasnt this been in mass production for months at this point while it was being tested with the idea being that if it was given the green light it would get pumped out like god bless you?

MARCH !@>??!@?>!@?>!@#>@#>?@#>@#>@#>@#><@#>!#>@#

seems like we are always dragging feet, USA / UK is going to be vaccinating people in December and legit the best these cowards can do is march ? what a joke
March is purely some spin as in a detailed interview yesterday they stated that they were extremely pleased with these results from the Phase II trials!!!!

Phase III (which the Moderna et al vaccines we've been hearing about are over 4+ months into) trials will begin 'shortly' she said, and after the first six months we'll be in a good position to judge....

So six months from now is May before the early results are known, therefore suggests earliest for Oxford is June/July. 🤞

I think the talk of rolling out in December is actually rolling out the Phase III trials using medical staff as the guinea pigs perhaps.
 
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Pom-DownUnder

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March is purely some spin as in a detailed interview yesterday they stated that they were extremely pleased with these results from the Phase II trials!!!!

Phase III (which the Moderna et al vaccines we've been hearing about are over 4+ months into) trials will begin 'shortly' he said, and after the first six months we'll be in a good position to judge....

So six months from now is May before the early results are known, therefore suggests earliest for Oxford is June/July. 🤞

I think the talk of rolling out in December is actually rolling out the Phase III trials using medical staff as the guinea pigs perhaps.

1606222803112.png

High Risk groups doesnt sound like guinea pig groups to me
 

Flashback

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View attachment 234390

hasnt this been in mass production for months at this point while it was being tested with the idea being that if it was given the green light it would get pumped out like god bless you?

MARCH !@>??!@?>!@?>!@#>@#>?@#>@#>@#>@#><@#>!#>@#

seems like we are always dragging feet, USA / UK is going to be vaccinating people in December and legit the best these cowards can do is march ? what a joke
View attachment 234392
uk and usa, honestly ditch out of the emu and kangaroo and get a clown car on the coat of arms if they dont start vaccinating people before march

That timeline is very optimistic, our CMO Chris Witty and the chap from Oxford that took last night's press conference on BBC said 1st half of the year, at the earliest for getting most people (that won't to be vaccinated done). Beginning of December also looks quite unlikely but happy for them to prove us otherwise wrong.
 

ayushamity

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I think the talk of rolling out in December is actually rolling out the Phase III trials using medical staff as the guinea pigs perhaps.
It would me much appreciated if misinformation like this isn't spread, especially in a forum where most members are desperate to get the vaccine to travel overseas.

Phase III trials for Oxford started in July across US, UK, Brazil, South Africa etc and recruited about 30,000 people I think.

The reason Oxford is slightly behind Pfizer is that Oxford was paused in the USA for a month for safety reasons in September. They have 131 infections already to unblind the trials but need more to determine final efficacy for approval.

So yeh, Phase III will be soon COMPLETE, after which the regulators will hopefully approve.

Oxford's key benefit is that a lot of doses have already been manufactured in advance compared to Pfizer since it was the front runner early on so even though Oxford will be approved after Pfizer, the roll out will be much quicker because of advance production.

India (which have manufactured 100 mill doses already) is going for Jan approval which is realistic I think. TGA also said approve by late January so prob start Oxford vaccinations by February and Pfizer from March when it arrives in the country.
 

ayushamity

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That timeline is very optimistic, our CMO Chris Witty and the chap from Oxford that took last night's press conference on BBC said 1st half of the year, at the earliest for getting most people (that won't to be vaccinated done). Beginning of December also looks quite unlikely but happy for them to prove us otherwise wrong.

Yeh. The December timeline for US/UK is for the Pfizer vaccine which is completely realistic since trials have already finished and the 2 month safety data milestone has been reached. Unfortunately, we only get Pfizer in March as we are reliant from overseas.

Oxford timeline for US/UK will only be January at the earliest.

Actually thinking about it, both US and UK are going for majority vaccinations by March/April. So they will all be probably vaccinated when we are just starting ours.
 
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