Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

drron

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Before we got to Phase 3 trials of the vaccines the FDA advised that it is usually 2 months after the safety details and phase 3 results have been lodged that approval for use would be given.
All the information we have been given is by company press release.None as far as I have read have said they have lodged the results with the authorities so December 1st is ambitious.
Pfizer have said they will be asking for Emergency Authorisation.

The Oxford release implied the NHS would authorise use just a couple of days after lodging the results.That sounds way too quick to process all the information.

And in a different vein if the CDC had it's way international Air travel is a long way off.

  • Get tested 1-3 days before your flight.
  • Get tested 3-5 days after travel ANDstay home for 7 days after travel.
    • Even if you test negative, stay home for the full 7 days.
    • If you don’t get tested, it’s safest to stay home for 14 days after travel.
  • Always follow state and local recommendations or requirements related to travel.
  • Delay your travel if you are waiting for test results.
 

ayushamity

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Before we got to Phase 3 trials of the vaccines the FDA advised that it is usually 2 months after the safety details and phase 3 results have been lodged that approval for use would be given.
All the information we have been given is by company press release.None as far as I have read have said they have lodged the results with the authorities so December 1st is ambitious.
Pfizer have said they will be asking for Emergency Authorisation

The 2 months safety data is only required for FDA and that milestone was reached last week by Pfizer. But FDA don't have a meeting booked in till 10 Dec anyway

2 months safety data is not required for UK approval. So they are on track to approve this week
 

jakeseven7

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At least the good news of QLD opening to both VIC and NSW just leaves old WA as the laggard state now (I predict they will fold shortly as well) which should really pave the way for some serious talk about real travel bubbles and international flights....

Probably only NZ and perhaps a few PAC Islands?
 

drron

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The 2 months safety data is only required for FDA and that milestone was reached last week by Pfizer. But FDA don't have a meeting booked in till 10 Dec anyway

2 months safety data is not required for UK approval. So they are on track to approve this week
Sorry but it was said that it usually takes 2 months after the safety data is lodged for approval to be given.I am sure though that will be shortened but it still makes me a little uneasy especially since the Christmas,New Year period is coming up fast.
 

Pushka

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Sorry but it was said that it usually takes 2 months after the safety data is lodged for approval to be given.I am sure though that will be shortened but it still makes me a little uneasy especially since the Christmas,New Year period is coming up fast.
Maybe they have balanced one risk with another and determined that vaccination is safer than doing nothing.
 

drron

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Maybe they have balanced one risk with another and determined that vaccination is safer than doing nothing.
but it worries me because there have been bad results that have become known after approval of drugs and vaccines.Think thalidomide.But I was involved in this one.
.

And there was this infamous result of an emergency authorisation of a swine flu vaccine in the US in 1976.
 

jakeseven7

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And QLD has joined WA, threatening the Federal Government with domestic border closures if any international routes are opened up that QLD does not agree with.

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1606265691521.png
 

RAM

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It is vital that hope & hype don't outweigh the science. If just one of the new vaccines is found to have issues in the short/medium term (as Phase III trials are still around 1/3rd to 1/6th the duration that is normal) - then international travel could revert to a global near-permanent 'exemption only' basis due to fears of vaccines.

Not to mention the anti-vaxxers using such an event to push their 'flat earth' agenda.

No problem hoping, but perhaps take note from one of the experts of the moment.

The Chief Medical Officer of Moderna is doing blanket US TV-interviews to water down the hype about their vaccine as despite warnings not to travel - Americans have flooded into airports US-wide.


Research has shown that the biotech firm’s shot is effective at preventing people from getting sick with COVID-19, but there’s no hard evidence that it stops them from carrying the virus “transiently” and potentially infecting others who haven’t been vaccinated, according to Dr. Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer.

“Do I believe that it reduces transmission? Absolutely yes, and I say this because of the science,” he added. “But absent proof, I think it’s important that we don’t change behaviors solely on the basis of vaccination.”
 
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oznflfan

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And QLD has joined WA, threatening the Federal Government with domestic border closures if any international routes are opened up that QLD does not agree with.

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View attachment 234409
Fine, open borders for Australia, and let QLD and WA shut their borders tight. They will very soon die financially, and after some time re-open and beg for both domestic and international tourists.

No harm no foul. They'll probably lose population with both banana benders and sandgropers wanting to ditch their state for greener pastures.
 

RAM

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It would me much appreciated if misinformation like this isn't spread, especially in a forum where most members are desperate to get the vaccine to travel overseas.

Phase III trials for Oxford started in July across US, UK, Brazil, South Africa etc and recruited about 30,000 people I think.
I also am in the camp of needing to go overseas & have been so since April but it is important to retain perspective.

Rewind back to September 1939 - when there was no international travel for the following seven years, all Australians (other than soldiers etc) were 'locked in Australia'.

There was no zoom, no Whatsapp, no internet, no videos, not even TV news (1st in 1956), even phone calls were out of the question for those few countries still able to be called (due to cost). Yet people survived despite the attrocities being inflicted on their relatives in Europe & Asia. Or go back to WW1 where 1 in 5 people living in Australia had a relative or friend killed or wounded - instead a Post Office worker turned up on a bicycle with a telegram.
______________________________________​

I concur - spreading misinformation is wrong.

My post relayed, not interpreted, an interview with the Uni of Qld chief researcher, involved with the Oxford vaccine, on the ABC. Several publications have subsequently gone back and updated/amended their intial articles (eg: The Guardian) to clarify.

My post is 100% accurate about the results being from Phase II & the researcher stating that Phase III trials were beginning. I did make the mistake of assuming what she said about Phase III trials beginning was correct - clearly some Phase III trials had been going for months. There are no results for the Phase III trials yet, not even interim results.

Good news - unlike most other trials the Oxford one has been getting weekly swabs from all participants (at least in their phase II trial).

Most of the press/blog speculation has incorrectly equated what Oxford reported with what Pfizer & Moderna reported. That is wrong. Today in the US the CMO of Moderna has been doing multiple TV interviews to rein in what is being spread about their vaccine's Phase III results.

Research has shown that the biotech firm’s shot is effective at preventing people from getting sick with COVID-19, but there’s no hard evidence that it stops them from carrying the virus “transiently” and potentially infecting others who haven’t been vaccinated, according to Dr. Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer.
I think the talk of rolling out in December is actually rolling out the Phase III trials using medical staff as the guinea pigs perhaps.
Yes I did offer an opinion based on the interview I heard & qualified it - that is not misinformation though. I have no idea why the UK Dept of Health is talking about rolling out the Oxford vaccine in high risk groups from Dec 1st given the results are NOT from Phase III.

I do not claim to be as well informed about this as Matt:

"However, most experts outside the company, and the UK health secretary, Matt Hancock, expect it not to be available until 2021. Asked if some people could receive a vaccine this year, Hancock told the BBC: “I don’t rule that out but that is not my central expectation."

Hancock said a vaccine was not yet ready but he was preparing logistics for a possible rollout, mostly in the first half of 2021."


Something does not add up.

How about straight from the horse's mouth - the Lancet article that everything has come out of :

Published:November 18, 2020
In this report of the phase 2 component of a single-blind, randomised, controlled, phase 2/3 trial (COV002), healthy adults aged 18 years and older were enrolled at two UK clinical research facilities, in an age-escalation manner, into 18–55 years, 56–69 years, and 70 years and older immunogenicity subgroups. Participants were eligible if they did not have severe or uncontrolled medical comorbidities or a high frailty score (if aged ≥65 years).

Here is an article that sets out the real timeframes.


"The findings were based on a so-called Phase 2 trial of 560 people, including 240 above the age of 70. The results of the peer-reviewed study were published on Thursday in the Lancet, an international medical journal.

Phase 2 vaccine trials provide important preliminary data but do not prove whether they ultimately prevent people from getting sick. Oxford and AstraZeneca are waiting for the results of Phase 3 trials on thousands of people around the world to show whether their vaccine is safe and effective."

and from elsewhere:

“The differences in effectiveness for the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA (94-95%) and Oxford chimpanzee-adenovirus-vectored (60-90% depending on dosing regimen) vaccines are currently based on the analysis of just 100-200 patients – when there are some 30,000-50,000 trial participants for each vaccine, so these figures could still change dramatically later on.

“However, whilst the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine Phase 3 effectiveness estimates have included a diverse range of participants from different ethnic groups, the Oxford vaccine participants have been mainly drawn from a white Caucasian population in their early trials. So more data on its effectiveness in BAME populations will be useful.


"This article was amended on 17 November 2020 to clarify that results of vaccine trials at this stage refer to “efficacy” – the performance of an intervention under ideal and controlled circumstances – not “effectiveness”, which describes performance under real-world conditions <<aka Phase III trials>>."

Prof Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, agreed. “The positive results from the other developers means it is likely that there will be multiple vaccines on target, which is great news for the world,” he said.

Pollard told the Guardian that the Oxford/AstraZeneca team expect to have findings from their phase 3 clinical trial within a matter of weeks. << Interim analysis that is >>

As the UK rollout is less than two weeks after the Oxford Phase II results were released, and Phase III interim results have not been finalised let alone analysed fully - wouldn't that imply 'guinea pig status' much like what Putin has done in Russia (& been criticised for) - putting the Russian vaccine out on the basis of Phase II results only?
 
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ayushamity

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As the UK rollout is less than two weeks after the Oxford Phase II results were released, and Phase III interim results have not been finalised let alone analysed fully - wouldn't that imply 'guinea pig status' much like what Putin has done in Russia (& been criticised for) - putting the Russian vaccine out on the basis of Phase II results only?

The UK roll out is Pfizer. NOT Oxford

Oxford UK roll out likely January I think
 

trevella

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There are no results for the Phase III trials yet, not even interim results.



The University of Oxford, in collaboration with AstraZeneca plc, today announces interim trial data from its Phase III trials
 

MEL_Traveller

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So the Prime Minister today said you will catch covid if you fly commercial. Not 'may', but 'will.

So was the justification for sending the former finance minister by private jet to Europe at a cost of $4000 per flight hour.

Urrgh.

This is completely at odds with the advice of our national carrier which has said flying is completely safe. But maybe that explains the mindset behind the ban on international flights.

That aside... I could possibly accept trotting around to 10 cities in Europe might increase the risks of infection... but why not take commercial to/from Europe, and hire a private jet just for the trips while you are there?
 

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oznflfan

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This is outrageous. I think we should launch a lawsuit against this rule as forced vaccination is simply assault, which is a criminal offense.
Sorry CR, I saw this and smiled. You can't believe the media, and not sure if any substance for this statement, but if true, I will likely be able to travel oversea's, hopefully by September next year if all goers well with vaccination plans (for myself personally and the whole country). A very nice boutique hotel in Phnom Penh has my name on it.
 

MEL_Traveller

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This is outrageous. I think we should launch a lawsuit against this rule as forced vaccination is simply assault, which is a criminal offense.

There is no forced vaccination! It’s your choice... you either get vaccinated or you have to do quarantine. At least for Australia. Other countries may refuse entry outright if you aren’t vaccinated. That’s perfectly legal!
 

burmans

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lovetravellingoz

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This is outrageous. I think we should launch a lawsuit against this rule as forced vaccination is simply assault, which is a criminal offense.


Well at present it is no vaccine, and 14 days quarantine on arrival.

So it really is no different, except that if a vaccine becomes available that you will have the option and advantage to avoid the quarantine and its cost by having the vaccine.

Other possible choices may include to simply to not to seek to arrive in Australia from an international location., or to not travel to a country that has not eradicated CV19.

Having free entry into Australia of an unvaccinated person from a Covid prevalent country without quarantine would not go down well with the general population.
 

jakeseven7

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This is outrageous. I think we should launch a lawsuit against this rule as forced vaccination is simply assault, which is a criminal offense.

It’s ok it’s not forced.

You can either vaccinate and walk through or you can choos two so two weeks quarantine at your own cost.

100% your choice.

Though you may have to try and find an airline that accepts non vaccinated passengers.... suspect all the majors will... :)
 

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