Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jb747]

Time to update my prediction.

Back when this all started, I said domestic at the end of this year, and international at the end of 21. I think I was far too optimistic.

Domestic end 21. International end 23. But, there will be no airlines (at least in Oz). Oh, that's when I think it will start, not reach normality.

 

[kpc]

Time to update my prediction.

Back when this all started, I said domestic at the end of this year, and international at the end of 21. I think I was far too optimistic.

Domestic end 21. International end 23. But, there will be no airlines (at least in Oz). Oh, that's when I think it will start, not reach normality.

Wow...I hope you are very wrong but I fear you may not be too far off the mark!

 

[dajop]

Time to update my prediction.

Back when this all started, I said domestic at the end of this year, and international at the end of 21. I think I was far too optimistic.

Domestic end 21. International end 23. But, there will be no airlines (at least in Oz). Oh, that's when I think it will start, not reach normality.

You're missing intrastate! In June, well before the current madness kicked in, 4 of the top 10 routes, by passengers carried were intra-QLD, and 5 of the next 10 were intra-WA and one intra-NSW. I wouldn't be surprised in August that the top routes are:

BNE-CNS,BNE-TSV BNE-MKY, BNE-ROK, PER-BME, PER-KTA, PER-PHE, SYD-BNK, PER-KGI, PER-ZNE

 

[oznflfan]

Time to update my prediction.

Back when this all started, I said domestic at the end of this year, and international at the end of 21. I think I was far too optimistic.

Domestic end 21. International end 23. But, there will be no airlines (at least in Oz). Oh, that's when I think it will start, not reach normality.

NNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

I couldn't deal with no oversea's trips that I can't plan with some sort of hope for, at some time in the next year.

Planning on Normandy landing beaches mid September 2021 (booking with QFF as soon as I can, worst case can cancel and lose 6,000 QFF points). Was very negative on vaccine, but now thinking this will work, thing is which one? Will some countries allow access for a vaccine passport from certain pharma companies only? What is AstraZeneca is the one we can get, and allows SE Asian travel, but for USA visit you need the Moderna vaccine. I personally cringe at getting one vaccine Scomo says is ridgy-didge, but don't want five different ones to visit anywhere I want.

Head of WHO Tedros only last month estimated end of pandemic in less than two years, that takes it to mid 2022 at worst. No declared pandemic, no international nor national border issues. Simple, except for WA, as McGowan may keep had border even if no COVID cases in Australia for months at a time, as even if there's one case globally in Uzbekistan, he can't guarantee some Uzbekistani doesn't infiltrate SA or NT, and as he say's no state can guarantee their borders for illicit movement.

 

[HokitikaGold]

I think the whole fiasco of "vaccines" will play yet a further havoc with travel. Over the next few months I expect much fanfare about new wonder cures, that will help those pushing to reopen whatever market of travel sphere. I expect that almost all the initial vaccines will fail, so the airline industry, as every other, will go through phases of reopening with glee, followed immediately with a reality close. I think, in specific regards to the aviation industry, this will cause a second wave of economic harm. And even "strong" airlines will find this difficult.

The thing I find concerning, if that is the term, is that it seems airlines, like other industries, are all talking the same talk - about when things will return to "normal". I feel that things will never actually return to 2019. It may just be the case that in the future travel will be a different beast. Nowhere near the high's of recent years. There could be (will be) future pandemics. All the glorious rules of the 2010's will be later seen as an era of easiness. Never to return. Qantas share price is at about $3.50 right now. At least half that figure, in my humble opinion, is driven by people who think a return to 2019 will happen. And it will not. The impact of the current coronavirus thing is still just starting....

 

[trippin_the_rift]

I seriously believe that twitter link is to a load of TinFoilHat codswallop.

It surprises me you would propagate such rubbish.

I took it as light relief, not to be taken seriously. Trippin_The_rift doesn't strike me as a tinfoil hat type.

Cheers skip

I wouldn't blindly believe me either.
But I also wouldn't trust the media, or what uncle Scotty says, or what the guy next door heard from his mate at the pub.

Everyone should do their own research on things which affect them.

Reminds me of what Albert Einstein said: "once you stop learning you start dying".

 

[rikkitikkitavi]

Hope Vic does not copy the NSW hotel system too closely.

Revealed over the weekend that NSW:

• has had double the number of hotel security guards caught & fired since March 28th. Most from being reported by other guards, hotel staff +/or people quarantined - none detected by either the police nor army.
• not had any quality control system in place for checking on security guards, hotel staff nor hotel cleanliness.
• is thinking about setting up a committee (after 5 months! I kid you not) to look into quality control.
• despite having police on-site - they have not been instructed to ensure any procedures are being followed - remember the case back in April where a woman walked out of the hotel at Wynyard 'for exercise' & was only discovered to be missing when someone (a friend of hers) panicked when the phone in her quarantine room went unanswered for a few hours.

It is only pure chance, really, that NSW has not experienced a Melbourne style outbreak. After all 90% of the Victorian cases trace back to the room where a family's (2 parents & 2 children) room had faeces & urine spread throughout it. It was only finally detected due to complaints about a foul smell.

The now declared patient zero, was the night manager who got called to that room to accompany the Dept of Health personnel called in to dis-infect the room.

Sure glad that family arrived in Melbourne not Sydney (sorry Victorians but NIMBY here!).

So you think the VIC system was better even though it failed badly, interesting...
I was in Sydney quarantine end of June, there were no problems, everything went smoothly and professional guards . I wonder if a heavy police/military presence, a credible reporting chain, and the use of reputable security companies might have led to more discipline amongst guards? It’s like saying a normal prison is ineffective because guards are investiagted for wrong doing in larger numbers than a prison guarded by bikies, which was much better because there were few complaints, until everyone escaped... It’s Sir Humphrey logic. NSW had two breeches from tens of thousands of passengers, the Wynyard escapee women actually assaulted a guard to escape and go smoke, and was quickly caught. VIC had guards sleeping with guests, going shopping, letting them visit other rooms, smoking together etc etc. if the virus is so highly transmissible and dangerous I think you need a lot more than luck. Why did ViC shut down everything if only one case valid, why not start again? Ruby Princess is a better target for parochial rivalry.

edit: I must have had the superior police, because they were definitely talking about rules, how they would be enforced, behaviour of guests etc etc. or maybe I imagined the army and police coming to my door with the health staff to make sure CV19 tests and exit procedures etc were done properly.

 

[HokitikaGold]

Reminds me of what Albert Einstein said: "once you stop learning you start dying".

Describes most people in every society....

 

[flyer89]

Time to update my prediction.

Back when this all started, I said domestic at the end of this year, and international at the end of 21. I think I was far too optimistic.

Domestic end 21. International end 23. But, there will be no airlines (at least in Oz). Oh, that's when I think it will start, not reach normality.

As much as I want to agressively disagree with that, I cant. Do you subscribe to the idea that the govt will bail QF out though?

 

[Pushka]

All that means is that we will need to keep flying with Qatar and Singapore Airlines as they continue to fly into Adelaide. It was just wonderful yesterday as I was driving past Adelaide Airport to see the wonderful SQ bird line up for take off and then soar into the skies. Qantas International left us years ago so we reciprocated on an international level.

 

[jakeseven7]

Really interesting article mapping Australians still stranded overseas due to the international border closures



——-

Australians stranded overseas during coronavirus pandemic map their stories on Remove the Cap

Thousands of Australians remain overseas amid the pandemic, stranded for a variety of reasons, including the cap on international arrivals and a scarcity of tickets, soaring ticket prices and the cost of mandatory quarantine.

Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge told the ABC last week Australia's current limit of 4,000 arrivals a week would be considered by the National Cabinet at its next meeting

UX designer, Mr den Heten created removethecap.com — a website designed to visually convey the difficulties and delays Australians are encountering in their attempts to return home.

"The sheer number [of Australians trying to get home] and scale of the issue really triggered my inner activist," he said.

Stranded Aussies mapped in project aimed at removing the cap

Pieter den Heten has been stuck in Amsterdam for six months, but it was an "eye-opening" conversation with a close friend that pushed him to speak out on behalf of Australians stranded overseas during the coronavirus pandemic.

mobile.abc.net.au

 

[jb747]

As much as I want to agressively disagree with that, I cant. Do you subscribe to the idea that the govt will bail QF out though?

No. It will be allowed to collapse.

Qantas International left us years ago so we reciprocated on an international level.

Well, it could be that it went in the other order. In any event, I expect that my comment above will result in you getting your wish for all flights, both domestic and international.

 

[tgh]

I think Jb is a tad pessimistic about domestic travel
Present trend seems to be that we become habituated to masks and a steady daily infection rate kept in control by better contact tracing and local lockdowns.
The world is aligning in this methodology, driven by a need to survive economically.
Assuming the infection base is under control , I opine that domestic borders will all be forced open by the feds, perhaps even by Xmas.
"Casual" International is anybody's guess though … 23 may well be right

 

[straitman]

Really interesting article mapping Australians still stranded overseas due to the international border closures



——-

Australians stranded overseas during coronavirus pandemic map their stories on Remove the Cap

Thousands of Australians remain overseas amid the pandemic, stranded for a variety of reasons, including the cap on international arrivals and a scarcity of tickets, soaring ticket prices and the cost of mandatory quarantine.

Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge told the ABC last week Australia's current limit of 4,000 arrivals a week would be considered by the National Cabinet at its next meeting

UX designer, Mr den Heten created removethecap.com — a website designed to visually convey the difficulties and delays Australians are encountering in their attempts to return home.

"The sheer number [of Australians trying to get home] and scale of the issue really triggered my inner activist," he said.

Stranded Aussies mapped in project aimed at removing the cap

Pieter den Heten has been stuck in Amsterdam for six months, but it was an "eye-opening" conversation with a close friend that pushed him to speak out on behalf of Australians stranded overseas during the coronavirus pandemic.

mobile.abc.net.au

Or daughter, SIL and 2 grandkids are currently stuck Panama City. The lockdown restrictions there make Melbourne look like a holiday camp.
Whilst they have no busting reason to rush home they have run the exercise to see what is possible at the moment.
Rounded down a little it would currently cost $A100,000 to get them home IF they could actually get flights.
They are safe and comfortable and have no current issues, but the thought of that sort of cost is a bit daunting.

 

[Pushka]

Really interesting article mapping Australians still stranded overseas due to the international border closures



——-

Australians stranded overseas during coronavirus pandemic map their stories on Remove the Cap

Thousands of Australians remain overseas amid the pandemic, stranded for a variety of reasons, including the cap on international arrivals and a scarcity of tickets, soaring ticket prices and the cost of mandatory quarantine.

Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge told the ABC last week Australia's current limit of 4,000 arrivals a week would be considered by the National Cabinet at its next meeting

UX designer, Mr den Heten created removethecap.com — a website designed to visually convey the difficulties and delays Australians are encountering in their attempts to return home.

"The sheer number [of Australians trying to get home] and scale of the issue really triggered my inner activist," he said.

Stranded Aussies mapped in project aimed at removing the cap

Pieter den Heten has been stuck in Amsterdam for six months, but it was an "eye-opening" conversation with a close friend that pushed him to speak out on behalf of Australians stranded overseas during the coronavirus pandemic.

mobile.abc.net.au

Activist? Im bordering on anarchist with this and the exempted persons thing!

 

[Pushka]

No. It will be allowed to collapse.



Well, it could be that it went in the other order. In any event, I expect that my comment above will result in you getting your wish for all flights, both domestic and international.

I would agree except that Emirates, and Qatar flights out of Adelaide, until Covid, were very full. Qantas handed us over to Emirates at the same time as they exited Adelaide. Y was always overbooked which resulted in nice upgrades for us because Emirates treated status Qantas passengers better than Qantas did, in my experience anyway.

 

[straitman]

Activist? Im bordering on anarchist with this and the exempted persons thing!

Could you clarify please?

 

[jakeseven7]

I would agree except that Emirates, and Qatar flights out of Adelaide, until Covid, were very full. Qantas handed us over to Emirates at the same time as they exited Adelaide. Y was always overbooked which resulted in nice upgrades for us because Emirates treated status Qantas passengers better than Qantas did, in my experience anyway.

As has been discussed many many many times before on here though, you simply can't compare the heavily subsidized state controlled / royal family / oil state airlines that fly you to their hub to QFi though.

Anyway, a little off topic

I think we are starting to see the start of planning for international borders opening (in some capacity) through all the language shifts this week..... Will be interesting to see how they manage it.

 

[Pushka]

Could you clarify please?

I will follow guidance/rules when it applies fairly, and evenly to all with very limited exceptions. Life and death considerations. As soon as the rules are bent for high profile people or to score something etc etc, then clearly the rules to me are meaningless.

I will use SA as an example. The state border issue and even the International one. Anyone who has travelled from Victoria, in areas of very low covid outbreak, even just in transit at the airport, is currently barred from entering SA, when they were prepared to self isolate, or even if they were prepared to pay for it in a quarantine hotel. And this includes South Australian residents. I do not want to live in a state or a country that bans its own residents from returning home, even when they are prepared to abide by all the rules. This last month, in trying to win the AFL GF, the SA Govt stated that the head boffins (and they refused to give a number) would be allowed into SA and they would not be required to isolate. Yet we have country border people who may live in Victoria, just a couple of kilometres on the other side, whose schools, employment and even medical services are in SA. Even refuelling - petrol station located just a couple of k's into SA and the nearest Vic one was over 150 k's away. Absolute bollocks policy. Yet we are currently preparing to bring in a group of about 200 international students who of course will isolate, but other than study here, they have no claim to be in Australia. Of course we need them, but only when we start acting evenly and fairly to our own SA residents, and other Australians.

Victorians have been refused permission to visit family members or attend funerals in SA. Or they were granted permission, after the member had died, still had to isolate and so were not allowed to attend the funeral unless it was held 14 days after their arrival. Meaning a delay of three weeks after death. In another case the daughter was given consent as per above, but her husband was refused. Yet when Covid was running havoc in the UK, a woman was allowed to come to Australia to look after her father, and she did test positive on arrival at the airport.

But its OK for AFL boffins to come in unchecked.

 

[trevella]

I will follow guidance/rules when it applies fairly, and evenly to all with very limited exceptions. Life and death considerations. As soon as the rules are bent for high profile people or to score something etc etc, then clearly the rules to me are meaningless.

I will use SA as an example. The state border issue and even the International one. Anyone who has travelled from Victoria, in areas of very low covid outbreak, even just in transit at the airport, is currently barred from entering SA, even if they were prepared to self isolate, or even if they were prepared to pay for it in a quarantine hotel. And this includes South Australian residents. I do not want to live in a state or a country that bans its own residents from returning home, even when they are prepared to abide by all the rules. This last month, in trying to win the AFL GF, the SA Govt stated that the head boffins (and they refused to give a number) would be allowed into SA and they would not be required to isolate. Yet we have country border people who may live in Victoria, just a couple of kilometres on the other side, whose schools, employment and even medical services are in SA. Even refuelling - petrol station located just a couple of k's into SA and the nearest Vic one was over 150 k's away. Absolute bollocks policy. Yet we are currently preparing to bring in a group of about 200 international students who of course will isolate, but other than study here, they have no claim to be in Australia. Of course we need them, but only when we start acting evenly and fairly to our own SA residents, and other Australians.

Victorians have been refused permission to visit family members or attend funerals in SA. Or they were granted permission, after the member had died, still had to isolate and so were not allowed to attend the funeral unless it was held 14 days after their arrival. Meaning a delay of three weeks after death. In another case the daughter was given consent as per above, but her husband was refused. Yet when Covid was running havoc in the UK, a woman was allowed to come to Australia to look after her father, and she did test positive on arrival at the airport.

But its OK for AFL boffins to come in unchecked.

So basically just a small-minded "If I don't agree with what they say then stuff 'em, because I know better and any positive for someone else is a negative for me". I think Pierre-Joseph Proudhon probably had something else in mind.