Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

VPS

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Yes, one or two other issues to consider…:)

As Batterytraveller has said we have only the joint media statement to go on, plus the PM’s words at yesterday’s presser, and the National Plan. I used those 3 references for my commentary at post #10,703 above: happy to be corrected but there is really nothing else yet (and some of the media coverage isn't helping) so you have only indications in lieu of firm guidance on what is changing. Issues to ponder:

Citizenship: If your UK traveller has Australian citizenship or PR as well as British citizenship, fine. If not then the lifting of the inbound and outbound travel ban in Nov may not help her – the relaxing of restrictions applies only to Australians so foreign nationals will (by implication) still need to seek an ABF exemption to come here. And there is no explicit confirmation that arriving non-citizens, even if vaccinated, will benefit from home quarantine when it starts – though it would be a nonsense to discriminate.

Timetable: Until the international restrictions on arrivals are amended (‘in November’) current rules apply and all arrivals, irrespective of vaccination status, go into 14 days of hotel quarantine. In your scenario, choose the flight arrival date according to your best estimation of when Victoria will enter Phase C and introduce home quarantine: it can only be a guesstimate right now.

Vaccination: As a person vaccinated under the UK programme your traveller will have received a TGA-approved vaccine and should have no great difficulty in having this validated for Australian immigration purposes.

Home quarantine: As the Commonwealth has thrown this one to the States, until Victoria announces a model (even a trial) then you have only the PM’s announcement of 7 days being the expected model, plus the reasonable assumption it will need to be in premises where isolation is feasible. You can look at the SA & NSW trials but really anything else about how it will work is conjecture.
Thanks for the great summary

She only has UK citizenship. She is a dear friend but I pity any person that tries to put her in a hotel room for 14 days especially if there is no window. She is one hyperactive individual
 

MEL_Traveller

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Thanks for the great summary

She only has UK citizenship. She is a dear friend but I pity any person that tries to put her in a hotel room for 14 days especially if there is no window. She is one hyperactive individual

Just to further the previous comments I noted today on the Cth website that it said while those on (for example) temporary visas are free to leave, coming back would be subject to an exemption and unlikely to be granted. Citizens of other countries probably fall more or less into that same category... although in this case there is a compelling reason for an exemption. Worth trying!
 

Telemachus

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Just to further the previous comments I noted today on the Cth website that it said while those on (for example) temporary visas are free to leave, coming back would be subject to an exemption and unlikely to be granted. Citizens of other countries probably fall more or less into that same category... although in this case there is a compelling reason for an exemption. Worth trying!
Yes, the exemption process will still be in place for non-citizen arrivals. An open international border without Covid-related restrictions is not coming until Phase D for which a date is still to be set. The easing of restrictions at Phase C for non-citizens/residents (according to the National Plan) is limited to ‘increased capped entry of student, economic and humanitarian visa holders’. There was a passing reference to ‘students and skilled migrants’ in the PM’s presser (in the context of ‘recognition’ of Sinovac & Covishield) but that was it – nothing in the joint Ministerial media statement or the NC media release which has appeared subsequently.

In the case with which VPS is helping it appears an exemption will be needed. You would hope that the criteria for and the operation of the exemption process might now be improved to make it more predictable and less intrusive in its demands for people’s very personal information.

As to when we can expect more detail on how Friday’s announced changes will be given effect, the joint media statement has only this: ‘In coming weeks the Minister for Health will consider updates to the Biosecurity Act Emergency determinations to facilitate some of these changes for fully vaccinated Australian travellers’.
 
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OATEK

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Yes, the exemption process will still be in place. An open international border without Covid-related restrictions is not coming until Phase D for which a date is still to be set. The easing of restrictions at Phase C for non-citizens/residents (according to the National Plan) is limited to ‘increased capped entry of student, economic and humanitarian visa holders’. There was a passing reference to ‘students and skilled migrants’ in the PM’s presser (in the context of ‘recognition’ of Sinovac & Covishield) but that was it – nothing in the joint Ministerial media statement or the NC media release which has appeared subsequently.

In the case with which VPS is helping it appears an exemption will be needed. You would hope that the criteria for and the operation of the exemption process might now be improved to make it more predictable and less intrusive in its demands for people’s very personal information.

As to when we can expect more detail on how Friday’s announced changes will be given effect, the joint media statement has only this: ‘In coming weeks the Minister for Health will consider updates to the Biosecurity Act Emergency determinations to facilitate some of these changes for fully vaccinated Australian travellers’.
The Feds are playing catch-up as the vaccination rate has surged, and the 70% & 80% targets are being reached not only sooner, but close together (for NSW). It seems that their modelling has let them down. But I am confident that we will get what we need in time to allow the first flight ramp up in 6 weeks or so.
 
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Danger

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Seven days' quarantine is a dealbreaker for me, personally.

In the absence of quarantine-free travel, what do you think the changes are of avoiding quarantine by doing a direct turn in NZ: Australia-New Zealand-Australia? No Customs or Immigration in NZ. Technically, one was never there.
 

Peso

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Australians and PRs will be able to leave and return, what happens next is still not firm

while those on (for example) temporary visas are free to leave, coming back would be subject to an exemption and unlikely to be granted.

Yeah, this was what I feared would be what's going to happen. Foreign nationals have always been free to leave, but banned from returning except in limited exceptional circumstances, which for those on temp student and work visas obviously would not be viable, leaving them practically trapped in the country as well. Personally, I've seen it as tough but fair given that Australian citizens/PRs are subject to similar travel restrictions in the other direction, with the inbound travel caps adding to the burden for those offshore.

My opinion would definitely change if there's no additional clarification on this matter between now and November.

While 7 days of quarantine isn't ideal, it's way better than a $3000 2-week quarantine, and I'd say more than worth it to be able to see family overseas again.
 

Princess Fiona

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Seven days' quarantine is a dealbreaker for me, personally.

In the absence of quarantine-free travel, what do you think the changes are of avoiding quarantine by doing a direct turn in NZ: Australia-New Zealand-Australia? No Customs or Immigration in NZ. Technically, one was never there.
I think the 7 day quarantine (at least in NSW) will be gone before the TT border opens.
I also think that even if it were possible you would need to state on an arrival card from NZ that you had spent the previous 14 days there.
 

ayushamity

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From my understanding, NSW will reinstate arrival caps to 3500/week from 750/week as soon as they hit 80% DD which is forecast October 18 at the moment so just about 3 weeks away. This is even with hotel quarantine still remaining in place as the caps were reduced to focus health staff on the outbreak (not due to limited hotel quarantine capacity).

And it will go back to uncapped arrivals sometime in the middle of November once home quarantine is in full force.

Considering that airlines can take 5 times as many people in just 3 weeks, anyone concerned that airlines haven't released additional bookings for the second half of October yet?
 

Mrmaxwell

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Being based in Sydney I have booked a Xmas trip and feel that many things will have changed by the time I return in January. Once other airlines ramp up and there are multiple options then caps will be gone and anyone will be allowed in with the appropriate documents / clearances. I am very happy with the Nov 14th commencement as the first few weeks will ensure things are ironed out and the pressure for common sense hopefully will prevail moving into the Xmas/NY travel period.
 

glasszon

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How did the home quarantine trial worked in NSW? Can you do home quarantine with family members already in NSW if they agree to also abide by the home quarantine rules?
 

ayushamity

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How did the home quarantine trial worked in NSW? Can you do home quarantine with family members already in NSW if they agree to also abide by the home quarantine rules?
No clue. It has just started and is forecast to end this month. So I think they might not do start home quarantine well into November. Even though they will be reaching 80% mid October.
 

FLN56

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My partner is a visa holder and just got his travel exemption to enter Australia. The announcement of border reopening and home quarantine only mentions citizens and permanent residents. Does this mean that he will have to go to hotel quarantine if he goes to Australia in November? (He’s fully vaccinated with the Astrazeneca vaccine)
 

OATEK

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My partner is a visa holder and just got his travel exemption to enter Australia. The announcement of border reopening and home quarantine only mentions citizens and permanent residents. Does this mean that he will have to go to hotel quarantine if he goes to Australia in November? (He’s fully vaccinated with the Astrazeneca vaccine)
Until new orders are published I don't think we can be sure. There is no doubt a desire to open up the border to skilled migrants, seasonal workers and students but the new rules may be some weeks away yet.
 

Must...Fly!

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NSW Health just announced a big change to the rules for October 11th.

Close contacts of a Covid case who are fully vaccinated have to get tested and isolate for 7 days. Another test on day 6.
This ties in more with the 7 day isolation for returned travelers.
Getting there. Hope Victoria makes this change too (probably exasperated after lots of media pressure in 3 months time...sigh)
 

mviy

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I think it would be very difficult to say people who test negative returning from overseas can quarantine for just 7 days and to require people who are negative in the community that haven't travelled overseas to still do 14 days.

I expect if VIC gets onboard with 7 days quarantine for returning overseas travellers they'll also move to 7 days for close contacts.

covidlive is predicting VIC could reach 90% fully vaccinated around the end of November. One has to wonder if VIC doesn't move to 7 days quarantine when 90% are fully vaccinated is reached when they will do it.
 
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guiguioz

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At this stage, only QF is selling inbound tickets from now until Feb. We are yet to see the likes of EK/QR/SQ releasing inventory for that period.
I suspect this is due to the uncertainties around how it will work for unvaccinated travellers (daily cap? cap per flight?) and the added complexity of asking for vaccination status at point of sale / booking. Much easier for QF or AirNZ as they are mandating vaccination on those flights.
 

coyote25

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For those interested in NZ Travel
————

NZ PM Arden has said strict lockdowns will end once 90% of the eligible population is fully vaccinated, contrasting with the current 46%.

Full vaccination will become a requirement for non-New Zealand citizens arriving in the country from 1 November, the Covid-19 response minister, Chris Hipkins, said on Sunday.
———
Not a surprise you need to be fully vaccinated. Does not mention testing or quarantine arrangements.
 

ayushamity

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At this stage, only QF is selling inbound tickets from now until Feb. We are yet to see the likes of EK/QR/SQ releasing inventory for that period.
I suspect this is due to the uncertainties around how it will work for unvaccinated travellers (daily cap? cap per flight?) and the added complexity of asking for vaccination status at point of sale / booking. Much easier for QF or AirNZ as they are mandating vaccination on those flights.

Yeh I am tracking Vietnam Airlines and Singapore Airlines daily.

Agreed about the uncertainties regarding caps etc. But NSW is 3 weeks away from 80% DD and increased caps (unofficially announced by Gladys last Monday). They should get a move on and make it official stating 'From this date, these caps and these many arrivals per flight'.

Its gonna happen in about 3 weeks time but they need to make it official so that airlines can release bookings.
 
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