Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

OATEK

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I hope this so called imminent announcement gives some concrete details and isn't the rubbish we have been fed so far about "borders will open at 80%" which means absolutely nothing.

For weeks now we keep hearing "borders will open" which personally drives me mad because this doesn't tell us who would be allowed in, where people are allowed in from, can Aussie citizens who are not residing in Oz quarantine at home, if people are allowed to quarantine in a house with family/friends do the others also need to quarantine, what do people do in terms of transport from airport to home? How are vax vs unvaxxed separated at the airport? how long is quarantine etc, etc, etc.

Being based in London, coming back home to Melbourne would involves one or two stops on the way - and this alone complicates everything the way things are going.

Christmas is less than 3 months away. Scomo needs to pull his finger out, make a decision and allow travellers, airlines and airports time to plan. This is beyond ridiculous.
You are not going to heat the system. There will be nothing firm before the national cabinet this week.
 

ayushamity

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I wonder how quickly it takes airlines to mobilize aircraft to refly routes prior to the Delta outbreak travel caps.

For argument sake, say they announce a firm date next week, Could airlines mobilize aircraft in 1 month?
 

ethernet

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You are not going to heat the system. There will be nothing firm before the national cabinet this week.
Lot of good points in there. Deception is a two-part process involving a “distraction” and a “decoy”.
For these reasons National Cabinet is using deception, or as one TV channel said 'Scotty is saying look over there'.

The Most important point being Sydney' most recent wave started by ONE un-vaccinated driver at the airport. How to separate vaccinated and unvaccinated at the airport? Easy - Don't allow anyone unvacccinated to set foot on airport grounds period. No exceptions. Maybe one if you buy/lease a hasmat suit, or emergency responder, or diplomat. That makes the ban look reasonable. Sydney Airport should implement this, and broadcast that intention now. The airport train is another vector needing consideration.

Gladys said something of a shame if overseas travel was available before WA opened up. Is this an indirect cabinet leak to make all Australians suffer because of WA's inefficiency? If tried, it will be a vote looser. Christmas reunion sabotage is not forgotten quickly at election time.

Home quarantine is easy. You must not leave the inbound state for 10 days, and agree to be tested and tracked. That SA app will be fine.

About hotel quarantine costs not being paid for. People who own a home, may be surprised that court enforced payment order is placed on your title. Plenty of underworked lawyers willing to turn the screws.
 

dajop

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I wonder how quickly it takes airlines to mobilize aircraft to refly routes prior to the Delta outbreak travel caps.

For argument sake, say they announce a firm date next week, Could airlines mobilize aircraft in 1 month?

I've mentioned this before, but there's a whole heap of airlines that don't need to "refly" or restart routes. They simply open up inventory on current flights operating with 10 pax only or as freight only. There are aircraft with approximately 18,500 seats flying into Sydney every week. Some carriers (eg SQ ) are also still operating some off their "cancelled" flights - just not selling to or carrying passengers on those flights.

Other airlines, who knows. I am sure EK, SQ and QR could gear up to add more flights relatively quickly if the demand is there. The government supported connecting carriers have not been sitting idle, they've been flying empty planes all around the world so they are ready to ramp up when they can.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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I don't know the technical term, but does anyone think that instead of a hub at Darwin that Qantas say might be willing/prepared to do a drop off flight eg Darwin - drop some passengers - Adelaide drop other passengers, Canberra drop more passengers and then Melbourne drop last passengers? Just to navigate all the state's international return requirements.
 

antycbr

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I've mentioned this before, but there's a whole heap of airlines that don't need to "refly" or restart routes. They simply open up inventory on current flights operating with 10 pax only or as freight only. There are aircraft with approximately 18,500 seats flying into Sydney every week. Some carriers (eg SQ ) are also still operating some off their "cancelled" flights - just not selling to or carrying passengers on those flights.

Other airlines, who knows. I am sure EK, SQ and QR could gear up to add more flights relatively quickly if the demand is there. The government supported connecting carriers have not been sitting idle, they've been flying empty planes all around the world so they are ready to ramp up when they can.
Those government connecting carriers haven’t been flying empty most places, Australia and NZ are the two major destinations with this level of restrictions and in our case an outbound exit ban.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I don't know the technical term, but does anyone think that instead of a hub at Darwin that Qantas say might be willing/prepared to do a drop off flight eg Darwin - drop some passengers - Adelaide drop other passengers, Canberra drop more passengers and then Melbourne drop last passengers? Just to navigate all the state's international return requirements.

I'm guessing you'd need a fresh crew from DRW, but in theory it could work. QF used to have several services via a second Aussie city - DFW-BNE-SYD, MEL-ADL-SIN etc.

Dunno how quarantine is going to be managed for crews, but flying those coming in from overseas might put them in a different category in terms of them also needing enhanced quarantine, etc.
 

antycbr

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I don't know the technical term, but does anyone think that instead of a hub at Darwin that Qantas say might be willing/prepared to do a drop off flight eg Darwin - drop some passengers - Adelaide drop other passengers, Canberra drop more passengers and then Melbourne drop last passengers? Just to navigate all the state's international return requirements.
Lots and lots of cycles on a 787. Wouldn’t be popular with maintenance or accounting.
 

dajop

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Those government connecting carriers haven’t been flying empty most places, Australia and NZ are the two major destinations with this level of restrictions and in our case an outbound exit ban.

SQ has been flying plenty of empty flights to all sorts of places. They (had) a very strong Asian network, and most "major destinations" in Asia have faced severe restrictions not terribly unlike Australia and NZ (different but with similar effect). The western-centric media only focusses on Europe and US, the rest of the world doesn't count to them when comparing travel restrictions. When people say "Australia" is the only place in the world, they really mean the only place in the western world.
 

jakeseven7

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I wonder how quickly it takes airlines to mobilize aircraft to refly routes prior to the Delta outbreak travel caps.

For argument sake, say they announce a firm date next week, Could airlines mobilize aircraft in 1 month?

Sure, at what cost though? They’d also need some iron clad comittments from skittish governments….
 
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oznflfan

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I don't know the technical term, but does anyone think that instead of a hub at Darwin that Qantas say might be willing/prepared to do a drop off flight eg Darwin - drop some passengers - Adelaide drop other passengers, Canberra drop more passengers and then Melbourne drop last passengers? Just to navigate all the state's international return requirements.
What about if you live in Alice Springs/Port Lincoln/Mildura. Airport connections from capital cities, either same or next day?
 

ayushamity

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As second doses increase in Victoria and NSW and considering that NSW/VIC are 60% of the population, I think there is a fair chance of the 80% national average being brought forward from the current forecast of 8 Nov to maybe even like 2 or 3 Nov.

So we could have no caps/semi normal flight schedules in just over a month. Pretty hard to imagine right? After 18 months of border closure.

Looks like NSW/VIC/Scomo will move quite quick on the home quarantine/no arrival caps front and slightly concerned the airlines will not be ready in time.
 

oznflfan

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True, I only picked the capital cities because they would have federal immigration/border force officials.
It'll be a cough show to start, then as (very good) NSW Treasurer states we won't need quarantine at all working further into 2022. Gotta start conservative though.

I'm booked to LHR in May, but may bring that forward to Feb if airfares OK and I have some sort of idea how everything will work.
 

Princess Fiona

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I don't know the technical term, but does anyone think that instead of a hub at Darwin that Qantas say might be willing/prepared to do a drop off flight eg Darwin - drop some passengers - Adelaide drop other passengers, Canberra drop more passengers and then Melbourne drop last passengers? Just to navigate all the state's international return requirements.
Nope I think that’s a zero chance. No chance.
There are enough pax for SYD/MEL and there will be open borders between VIC/NSW. Other states will have to wait until they have open borders.
 

Pom-DownUnder

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I just hope this home quarantine thing is a short term solution, regular tourism will not happen with it in place, and if we are 'living' with covid then the requirement to be pristine, freshly bathed, deloused and baptised on your entire transit from another country before you can be let loose is crazy.

a flight from Singapore with little covid into SYD would send someone to home for 7 days where a flight from MEL to SYD with arguably more covid in MEL than SIN would be out and partying that night?

Just dont see the logic.
 

mviy

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Well any decision to abandon quarantine altogether, whilst critical for getting international travel back towards pre-COVID levels, without agreement from all the states could lead to state border issues.

I think home quarantine will be in force for several months at least.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I just hope this home quarantine thing is a short term solution, regular tourism will not happen with it in place, and if we are 'living' with covid then the requirement to be pristine, freshly bathed, deloused and baptised on your entire transit from another country before you can be let loose is crazy.

a flight from Singapore with little covid into SYD would send someone to home for 7 days where a flight from MEL to SYD with arguably more covid in MEL than SIN would be out and partying that night?

Just dont see the logic.

The only thing that quarantine would potentially do is isolate a new variant coming in.
 
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