Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

HappyFlyerFamily

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I don’t think that’s accurate on SIA cancelling all flights to Australia it appears they are cancelling extra flights that they thought might have been possible before the extra cap cuts.


It’s terrible terrible situation that is happening because of uncertainty that shouldn’t even exist but it’s not cancelling all flights, at least not yet.

I have no idea about Qatar or Emirates but the ability to charge whatever they want for freight should keep at least some flights.

It’s time for Fed Government to force the issue, state that no later than x (a date in December) no caps will be applied by Federal Government. That forces State Governments to announce what is happening with quarantine.

The December date should be safely after 80% Doherty Plan target. Let’s move on this now and allow airlines to get logistics on a ramp up (which is unlikely to be 2019 levels).
I think you need to gameplay what you think a State like WA might do - the noises from WA authorities is for continuing the same domestic/international border restrictions into possibly April 2022 and how that plays into other possible special dates. I guess there will be a lot of gameplaying on what to do come in the timeframe 1 to 15 November, and still lots of water to flow under the bridge between now and then. National Cabinet might even make some progress on home quarantine later this week.
 

antycbr

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I think you need to gameplay what you think a State like WA might do - the noises from WA authorities is for continuing the same domestic/international border restrictions into possibly April 2022 and how that plays into other possible special dates. I guess there will be a lot of gameplaying on what to do come in the timeframe 1 to 15 November, and still lots of water to flow under the bridge between now and then. National Cabinet might even make some progress on home quarantine later this week.
That would be for the West Australian Government to manage. Not the Commonwealth. Indeed I would argue it could be difficult for the Biosecurity Act controls to be repealed on a state by state basis anyway, possibly unconstitutional.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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That would be for the West Australian Government to manage. Not the Commonwealth. Indeed I would argue it could be difficult for the Biosecurity Act controls to be repealed on a state by state basis anyway, possibly unconstitutional.
Yes and the people affected are Australians under said constitution
 
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The guardian piece on the airline fiasco, there’s some more detail on the difficulties airlines face reopening.

It’s seems like no one in government has spoken to anyone at an airline (apart from possibly Qantas), and I can’t believe that airline execs haven’t been trying to get in touch constantly. They can see the pent up demand and would like to make a dollar or two off it.

It happens time and time again, these useless overpaid stuffed suits have no idea how the world actually works and no interest in finding out. Not just with travel, the continued assumption that it will all be over by Christmas (last Christmas, this Christmas next Christmas?) and then everything will magically snap back to normal had been a particularly galling. Everything has been reactive; no evidence of any strategy, any planning, any continuous improvement.

I wouldn’t hire any of these clowns to run children’s lemonade stand.

 

OATEK

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The guardian piece on the airline fiasco, there’s some more detail on the difficulties airlines face reopening.

It’s seems like no one in government has spoken to anyone at an airline (apart from possibly Qantas), and I can’t believe that airline execs haven’t been trying to get in touch constantly. They can see the pent up demand and would like to make a dollar or two off it.

It happens time and time again, these useless overpaid stuffed suits have no idea how the world actually works and no interest in finding out. Not just with travel, the continued assumption that it will all be over by Christmas (last Christmas, this Christmas next Christmas?) and then everything will magically snap back to normal had been a particularly galling. Everything has been reactive; no evidence of any strategy, any planning, any continuous improvement.

I wouldn’t hire any of these clowns to run children’s lemonade stand.

Looks like QF could do quite well for a while then, until the others decide to catch up.
 

Telemachus

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Looks like QF could do quite well for a while then, until the others decide to catch up.
I agree QF will make its own judgements though of course it has the same issues to contend with as the foreign carriers.

Clearly airlines and airports have chosen to go public in this orchestrated way because they see it as the only means of extracting the decisions, regulated requirements and commitments they need from government. One hopes fervently that QF has reason to be more confident than foreign carriers that all can be sufficiently in place for the announced start up pre-Xmas. QF’s Government Relations team ought to be well plugged into the right places in Canberra to prompt and cajole out of public view. The Commonwealth surely knows it will wear much of the blame if the QF international return has to be delayed again.

There are ample grounds for fearing the worst, though. Looking beyond the detail of caps, vaccination, quarantine etc, I see two fundamental problems:

1. When the National Plan was unveiled federal and state governments did not expect to re-open international travel until ‘at least’ early 2022. They and their depts and agencies thought they had much more time to get ready in policy, technical & operational terms. So it’s been a scramble in the ~2 months since it was recognised that Phase C starting before Xmas was feasible.

2. Decisions on the biggest unresolved issues have to go through National Cabinet or else have been devolved to individual jurisdictions, so even though it clearly wants to facilitate international travel the Commonwealth can’t clear the way unilaterally and quickly.

If clarity isn’t provided immediately it makes sense for foreign carriers to take no risks and sit this out for longer, leaving QF to make most of the running in the tricky initial stages of reopening.
 

Seat0B

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It’s seems like no one in government has spoken to anyone at an airline (apart from possibly Qantas), and I can’t believe that airline execs haven’t been trying to get in touch constantly. They can see the pent up demand and would like to make a dollar or two off it.
I can believe it. It's kind of the same story as the Pfizer execs in 2020 isn't it?
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Oh, I thought we had given up totally on the idea of Australian, and were now just Victorians, Queenslanders, Tasmanians, Territorians etc.
Well I'm sure there is still a PM and someone who wants to be PM - just to keep up the illusion of Australia. I'm just not certain how important opening international is to the Australian population as an issue of concern - I still think its not the number 1 issue.

So I see a situation of the Federal Government not forcing the issue with say WA - let them have their quota (eg for the reason, because their hospitals are at breaking point). Everyone knows the way out of the country is via the open States. And let the system of single/double quarantine take place based on a risk basis determined by each State/Territory.

If West Australians can't come home, then blame the WA Government.
 

oznflfan

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Well I'm sure there is still a PM and someone who wants to be PM - just to keep up the illusion of Australia. I'm just not certain how important opening international is to the Australian population as an issue of concern - I still think its not the number 1 issue.

So I see a situation of the Federal Government not forcing the issue with say WA - let them have their quota (eg for the reason, because their hospitals are at breaking point). Everyone knows the way out of the country is via the open States. And let the system of single/double quarantine take place based on a risk basis determined by each State/Territory.

If West Australians can't come home, then blame the WA Government.
Wait'll you see the Western Australia's revolt when they see Sydney and Melbournites travelling to Asia and Europe. If this goes on for a while even the media will be having headlines like 'Dictator locks the state' and ' WA Prison Island' and maybe even ' You voted him in........................'
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Wait'll you see the Western Australia's revolt when they see Sydney and Melbournites travelling to Asia and Europe. If this goes on for a while even the media will be having headlines like 'Dictator locks the state' and ' WA Prison Island' and maybe even ' You voted him in........................'
Yes, sort of agree. I think an interim position could be everyone including those from WA can leave - its just WA will still get payment for the privilege of returning home (but possibly not via extreme risk cities like Sydney and Melbourne).

NT I think making some announcements today on post-80%, so it will be interesting what they come up with since WA and NT has some similar issues.
 

jb747

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I agree QF will make its own judgements though of course it has the same issues to contend with as the foreign carriers.

If clarity isn’t provided immediately it makes sense for foreign carriers to take no risks and sit this out for longer, leaving QF to make most of the running in the tricky initial stages of reopening.
For many things, QF's issues don't affect other carriers, or at least not to the same degree. Basically, all of QF's international flights involve Australia, whereas for any others, Australia is just one of many destinations. A simple starting point is that QF crews will be forced into 14 days of quarantine, whereas foreign airlines won't be subjected to this ('cos they'll get out of Oz and back to the real world ASAP). I can see QF being very late to this party, with the foreign, government owned airlines, pushing further into the market.
 

mviy

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A simple starting point is that QF crews will be forced into 14 days of quarantine, whereas foreign airlines won't be subjected to this ('cos they'll get out of Oz and back to the real world ASAP). I can see QF being very late to this party, with the foreign, government owned airlines, pushing further into the market.
Well for some destinations like the UK could QF use UK based crews to deal with this problem or are all the LHR flight crews based in Australia?
 

OATEK

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For many things, QF's issues don't affect other carriers, or at least not to the same degree. Basically, all of QF's international flights involve Australia, whereas for any others, Australia is just one of many destinations. A simple starting point is that QF crews will be forced into 14 days of quarantine, whereas foreign airlines won't be subjected to this ('cos they'll get out of Oz and back to the real world ASAP). I can see QF being very late to this party, with the foreign, government owned airlines, pushing further into the market.
I don't see why the QF crews would have more onerous quarantine than the pax.
 
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jrfsp

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Well for some destinations like the UK could QF use UK based crews to deal with this problem or are all the LHR flight crews based in Australia?

QF used to have UK based Cabin Crew but i think they were let go?

All flight crew were AUS based.
 

Pushka

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