Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

Yeh I don't see international travel happening in 2022 at all - possibly late 2023 when we get to see some easing.

 

[oznflfan]

Yeh I don't see international travel happening in 2022 at all - possibly late 2023 when we get to see some easing.

No, some international travel, a number of SE Asian countries by June-Sept next year, 2022.

 

[dajop]

No, some international travel, a number of SE Asian countries by June-Sept next year, 2022.

I’ve got a feeling that UK will be ahead of places like Indonesia and Philippines. Currently Thailand and Malaysia could go either way.

 

[oznflfan]

I’ve got a feeling that UK will be ahead of places like Indonesia and Philippines. Currently Thailand and Malaysia could go either way.

Correct in UK, one of the first that could open based on COVID reductions and vaccinations, issue there is how open the country is to the world?

Really want to go to Poland sometime in 2022 for Wieliczka Salt Mine Health Resort. However Bloomberg just issued large countries ranked for COVID performance. Singapore 1, NZ 2, Aust 3. Bottom Two Brazil 53 and you guessed it, Poland at 52. Interestingly India middle of the pack.

 

[hb13]

Correct in UK, one of the first that could open based on COVID reductions and vaccinations, issue there is how open the country is to the world?

Really want to go to Poland sometime in 2022 for Wieliczka Salt Mine Health Resort. However Bloomberg just issued large countries ranked for COVID performance. Singapore 1, NZ 2, Aust 3. Bottom Two Brazil 53 and you guessed it, Poland at 52. Interestingly India middle of the pack.

Exactly. Being based in the UK, I would love the UK to be one of the first countries to get some sort of corridor. However, as Oznflfan correctly says, the UK is likely to be open to many countries in the next few months which would effectively leave any chance of this dead in the water.

 

[mviy]

Exactly. Being based in the UK, I would love the UK to be one of the first countries to get some sort of corridor. However, as Oznflfan correctly says, the UK is likely to be open to many countries in the next few months which would effectively leave any chance of this dead in the water.

Well that depends how they open to those other countries and how it affects case numbers etc. If only vaccinated travellers can travel and testing and contract tracing is done well then it may not be so bad. Trying to be optimistic...

 

[hb13]

Hence quarantine is ridiculous, especially when coming back in from safe countries and/or vaccinated. It just doesn't scale/work.

We are starting to see many countries, including the US, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, in fact the whole European Union now declare that fully vaccinated people can enter their countries with no quarantine. Vaccines appear to be much, much more effective than trials showed. They appear to be very safe.

When will the Australian government and medical fraternity wake up and realise this and begin to allow vaccinated Australians home without the need for two weeks quarantine (home or hotel). Ask someone for a PCR test on arrival, even on day 5, but if you're fully vaccinated - what the hell more do they want?

 

[hb13]

Well that depends how they open to those other countries and how it affects case numbers etc. If only vaccinated travellers can travel and testing and contract tracing is done well then it may not be so bad. Trying to be optimistic...

I think that is definitely right. If, a few months after we open up to more and more countries, and numbers stay low, then that is a good thing. And I wish I was more optimistic like you, but we have premiers in Australia that lockdown for 2 cases. That doesn't leave a hope for me of this being resolved in the next two or three years.

In the UK, the tolerance for risk is higher than Australia. We have about 2k cases a day and everyone apart from scientists is screaming for everything to be back to normal. Our chief MO and the PM have already said that Covid-0 is not possible and that is not the aim. Conversely, the Aussie PM has said Covid-0 is the goal. And the VIC, WA and QLD premiers are unlikely to budge and will therefore probably go to war with the feds if they budge from that.

So where does that leave the borders? Effectively closed to any country that doesn't have 0-covid. It's also important to remember NZ have already said that if Aus forms a bubble with Singapore, they would immediately re-consider the Aus/NZ bubble.

 

[Must...Fly!]

NZ have already said that if Aus forms a bubble with Singapore, they would immediately re-consider the Aus/NZ bubble.

Based on science or politics

I think I know which

 

[Flashback]

Convenient........

WA to stop using three quarantine hotels

Western Australia will close three "high-risk" quarantine hotels and indefinitely reduce its returned traveller intake after a COVID-19...

www.northweststar.com.au

 

[Flashback]

Exactly. Being based in the UK, I would love the UK to be one of the first countries to get some sort of corridor. However, as Oznflfan correctly says, the UK is likely to be open to many countries in the next few months which would effectively leave any chance of this dead in the water.

Well that depends how they open to those other countries and how it affects case numbers etc. If only vaccinated travellers can travel and testing and contract tracing is done well then it may not be so bad. Trying to be optimistic...

Just pointing out that the UK is open to many, many countries. The red list is fairly small at the moment.

Assume you mean open as in no need to quarantine, PCR test etc.? If so that may be some time away, as even the green list requires at least the day 2 PCR.

 

[hb13]

Based on science or politics

I think I know which

I assume you mean politics, which if you do, I agree. Australia is now wanting to bring in international students, have brought in large amounts of tennis players and their entourages and celebrities. Many people point to the fact that these "are outside of the caps currently in place", which is a moot point.

If you can bring in more people into the country, and you have deemed that not to risk the health/welfare of the people living in the country, then there is definitely a safe way to bring back tens of thousands of stranded Australians.

It's incredibly early for people to laud Australia's handling of this pandemic when we aren't anywhere near completion. While thousands of lives have been saved, and I think Australia handled it very well in 2020, you can't keep the current system in place forever - this will have catastrophic economic benefits down the track.

And if the rest of the world starts to get moving and Australia has got hardly anyone vaccinated, they will be left behind, with their citizens locked in as well. Mind you, if the Australian government continues its isolationist stance, which I'm sure McGowan and co would love, this will rub many other countries the wrong way, which can never be good.

 

[Pushka]

Just pointing out that the UK is open to many, many countries. The red list is fairly small at the moment.

Assume you mean open as in no need to quarantine, PCR test etc.? If so that may be some time away, as even the green list requires at least the day 2 PCR.

Agree. Open means home iso and testing to non red countries. How well is it policed though?

 

[Flashback]

Agree. Open means home iso and testing to non red countries. How well is it policed though?

OK, so I don't know why people keep saying "when the UK opens", it's never closed!

Given most flights from a chunk of red countries are banned........ pretty well, I can't really see any flights sneaking into the airports. For those that can arrive on direct flights from red countries, or via other countries with red somewhere along the way the Border Force is keeping that pretty tightly managed.

 

[Pushka]

OK, so I don't know why people keep saying "when the UK opens", it's never closed!

Given most flights from a chunk of red countries are banned........ pretty well, I can't really see any flights sneaking into the airports. For those that can arrive on direct flights from red countries, or via other countries with red somewhere along the way the Border Force is keeping that pretty tightly managed.

Well yes, that's true. The word open has changed from the experience of feeling free after getting through border control, to feeling free after the 3rd covid test after self iso for a period of time. Although non citizens from red countries aren't free and citizens travelling from red countries have to do the hotel thing.

 

[Flashback]

Well yes, that's true. The word open has changed from the experience of feeling free after getting through border control, to feeling free after the 3rd covid test after self iso for a period of time. Although non citizens from red countries aren't free and citizens travelling from red countries have to do the hotel thing.

Pretty much.

To me, closed is a country more like ... Australia. Unless you have an AU passport or you are famous in same way, bar a few minor exceptions you're not getting in! End of.

 

[Pushka]

Pretty much.

To me, closed is a country more like ... Australia. Unless you have an AU passport or you are famous in same way, bar a few minor exceptions you're not getting in! End of.

Closed tighter than a cats, um, well, you know.

 

[Lynda2475]

But Australia isnt a red country and not likely to become one from UK pov. Adam Hills has been back and forth between Aus and London multiple times over the past year, and only every had to HQ in Aus, fine to use his home in the UK.

I think NZ is the only country that has locked aussies out from arriving outright. Some countries require HQ like Singapore, HK and Thailand but most have been letting Aussies in with few restrictions.

The issue is our government letting us leave then return.

 

[Pushka]

But Australia isnt a red country and not likely to become one from UK pov. Adam Hills has been back and forth between Aus and London multiple times over the past year, and only every had to HQ in Aus, fine to use his home in the UK.

I think NZ is the only country that has locked aussies out from arriving outright. Some countries require HQ like Singapore, HK and Thailand but most have been letting Aussies in with few restrictions.

The issue is our government letting us leave then return.

Yep. We are locked in. As Aussies. Likely we could travel pretty much anywhere. But non Aussies are locked out except if you happen to play cricket, tennis, golf, even surf, have a fast horse, sing, act, have a famous actor sibling, yada yada.

 

[Flashback]

But Australia isnt a red country and not likely to become one from UK pov. Adam Hills has been back and forth between Aus and London multiple times over the past year, and only every had to HQ in Aus, fine to use his home in the UK.

I think NZ is the only country that has locked aussies out from arriving outright. Some countries require HQ like Singapore, HK and Thailand but most have been letting Aussies in with few restrictions.

The issue is our government letting us leave then return.

But if his wife is non-AU can she enter? Nope, not unless you play the waiting game for an exemption. I've played that one multiple times.

Other countries don't let Aussies in, but no point detailing an exhaustive list....