Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

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My point was that there are some situations that I wouldn't ever consider as 'stranded'. People know the situation with border closures, caps, airline schedules and new variants is unpredictable, yet despite all of that, chose to accept the risk and stay in the UK (or wherever else). There are seats out of London on the 20th of April, in both economy and premium economy classes, for as little as £735. 'Moving home' is a valid reason to travel out of the UK under the current restrictions.

So do you think that people who are fully employed overseas, perhaps in the middle of a contract, kids in school, house to sell should abandon it all and come home to join the ranks of the unemployed?
 

Seat0B

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I've seen your posts re testing and I agree with all of them. A rapid test at the airport and then PCR testing on arrival and a week later is sufficient, but this is the problem right now in Australia and many other places. Who is running the world right now - is it politicians or scientists?? In Australia it is Brendan Murphy.

The need for PCR test, after PCR test, after PCR test makes no sense. The aim to reach level of 0 risk will be one day very costly, yet no one seems to care or understand, least of all politicians.

Australia is now facing a situation where you may soon get to 100k Australians who are literally stranded overseas and can't come home because I'm sure we will continue to have hotel quarantine requirements and small caps for another 18 months or so. I'm not stranded, but want to so badly visit home, and I'm now considering putting up a ridiculous amount of money to fly home, take 4 weeks off work for quarantine and 2 weeks with family and friends. If however I wait, by the middle of next year I will be in a situation where I am stranded because my visa expires late 2022.

My biggest issue is that for the vast majority of Aussies in Australia now, this doesn't register. Australians overseas should be able to fly home at any point with little difficulty, but this just isn't happening.
It registers with me @hb13. I’m sure there are many people in the same or similar position. For many, all it would take is to lose their job- and thus their employer sponsored visa, then 30 days to leave the country. Scary to be constantly living on the edge like that.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Just because tickets are offered for sale, it doesn't necessarily mean that passengers won't get bumped off flights due to someone willing to pay more e.g. to fly business/first class.

If that happens the government could eventually face a diplomatic crisis as foreign governments demand airlines flying to Australia take more Australian passengers they're deporting than what Australia wants to let in. We're not at that point yet, but if the borders remain closed I could see that happening. This is one reason why I think the Feds want to get a plan in place to gradually ease restrictions as soon as targets set by the health authorities are met indicating that it's safe to do so.

Currently if someone is deported one of the 30(?) places on a flight would be taken by that person and someone else bumped off. But if they want to deport 50 on a flight and Australia only wants to take 30 there would be a problem.

People have been bumped when circumstances have changed, for example the caps were halved and airlines had to rearrange passengers. If a flight could take 50, but now only 30, 20 had to go, and lowest fare was probably a criteria.

You still have a contract with the airline which is enforceable. An airline would be in breach of contract if it simply cancelled your ticket for someone offering to pay more. Covid would not excuse that contractual arrangement.

I read somewhere that for vulnerable people that DFAT is requesting an airline to carry, the cap for that flight is increased. So if there are 30 pax and two (additional) in vulnerable category, the cap is lifted to 32 (for that flight). The same might apply for deportations, however, see below...

For deportations, my understanding is that the country doing the deporting is usually responsible for arranging transportation. The alternative is that the person to be deported is simply held at a detention centre until they can arrange passage. DFAT might step in and consider that person 'vulnerable', but I'm not sure the priority those people would be given if the sole reason was that their working holiday visa expired and they had chosen not to come home earlier?

More than likely somewhere like the UK or Europe would extend some sort of emergency visa if there was a total shutdown of flights.
 

MEL_Traveller

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So do you think that people who are fully employed overseas, perhaps in the middle of a contract, kids in school, house to sell should abandon it all and come home to join the ranks of the unemployed?

I think there's a bit to unpack with that statement...

Having a permanent work visa is different to a working holiday visa. If you have moved the family, have the kids in school and bought a house, chances are you won't be in a position to be unlawful at the end of two years. If you have achieved success with all of the above, you should probably also be able to read the market and choose whether or not you need to come home.

For those on a working holiday or other short-term visa... it's now been more than 12 months since the initial caps were put in place. Those with lease should be coming to the end of the 12 months and able to make a decision to come home, or not.

I understand some may feel obligated to work out the length of an employment contract... but this is a once in 100-year pandemic. Needing to leave to come home, while you can, is quite reasonable, and I don't see how that would affect your work reputation once back in Australia.
 

hb13

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I think there's a bit to unpack with that statement...

Having a permanent work visa is different to a working holiday visa. If you have moved the family, have the kids in school and bought a house, chances are you won't be in a position to be unlawful at the end of two years. If you have achieved success with all of the above, you should probably also be able to read the market and choose whether or not you need to come home.

For those on a working holiday or other short-term visa... it's now been more than 12 months since the initial caps were put in place. Those with lease should be coming to the end of the 12 months and able to make a decision to come home, or not.

I understand some may feel obligated to work out the length of an employment contract... but this is a once in 100-year pandemic. Needing to leave to come home, while you can, is quite reasonable, and I don't see how that would affect your work reputation once back in Australia.

There are so many problems with your statement it isn't even funny. In a nutshell, you are basically saying drop everything and come back home like it is easy to do. The amount of "ifs" as well is as if we live in a world that is normal right now, and you are assuming a 'normal' job market.

Do you not actually see a problem with Aussies who want to visit home being locked out of the country at the moment? I mean it in all sincerity, are you ok with the fact that many of us cannot visit home without serious consequences to our professional lives and financial situations? Further, if we have made a successful life overseas, wherever it may be, and we don't want to throw that away, but want to visit our loved ones back home for a week or two - you are ok with that as well?

Your arguments have been based on a 'once in a century pandemic' and that the health of Australians is at huge risk - but that gets thrown out if exemptions are made to people who came to Australia that did not need to come. You can't argue that these measures are ok for health reasons, however, we will make exemptions for sports stars and actors. That argument just doesn't hold water.

The vaccines were supposed to ease the restrictions, make things more plausible like at least double the caps and maybe ease quarantine or reduce it. So many of us thought "ok, by Nov/Dec, everyone in Australia will be vaccinated, and maybe, fully vaccinated Aussies can come home without spending two whole weeks in quarantine - maybe 5 days or a week" - and many of us would take that. Yet, the government has completely stuffed that as well.

I know many of us overseas who are ok with a year of being locked out because of "medical reasons". Many of us are ok with 18 months. But we are at a situation where there is no light at the end of the tunnel. And the sad thing is many of our fellow citizens don't care and hold a view that says "pack your stuff and come back home if you don't like it".
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So do you think that people who are fully employed overseas, perhaps in the middle of a contract, kids in school, house to sell should abandon it all and come home to join the ranks of the unemployed?

In a nutshell, that is how I read it. Which is unfortunately the view of most of the population it seems.
 

hb13

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The vaccine program is not an absolute disaster. The problem with the AZ vaccine was not foreseeable. But as I have been saying all along we did the right thing not going to emergency authorisation. The reason for that because problem often arise after more widespread use.

It is also too pessimistic to think that the vaccination program will take long into 2022 to complete. With 40 million Pfizer doses now due this year along with the Novavax becoming available by at least the 4th quarter everyone who wants to be vaccinated should be able to by the end of the year.
As well as people like me who are still willing to have the AZ vaccine.

The vaccine rollout is a disaster. The government decided to wait and see how it went everywhere else and thought "we'll be ok".

The exact issue of the AZ vaccine was not foreseeable, but there are always issues with new vaccines at the start. Yet the government didn't plan for this.

What is happening with the CSL production? We were supposed to be manufacturing 1 million doses a week there - yet nothing.

Are you saying all 40 million doses of Pfizer will be delivered this year after you have seen the delays of supply happening all over the world?

Australia is at the back of the queue now, whether you like it or not. We all know about the hundreds of thousands of vaccines that have been blocked twice in the last few weeks. You don't foresee that happening again with all of the vaccines?

Are you saying that all adults in Australia will be vaccinated by the end of this year? What are you basing that on? For that to happen, you need to be vaccinating more than a million per week. The rate now is not even half that?
 

jjonnboy

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I mean it in all sincerity, are you ok with the fact that many of us cannot visit home without serious consequences to our professional lives and financial situations? Further, if we have made a successful life overseas, wherever it may be, and we don't want to throw that away, but want to visit our loved ones back home for a week or two - you are ok with that as well?
I empathise that many cannot 'visit' home; the juxtaposition is that virtually all in Australia have been locked on this side of our border and are unable to visit family overseas. I sense your frustration but I think there is an unreasonableness to some of your commentary on measures that would afford you the capacity to traverse the border, which virtually none of us have.
The vaccines were supposed to ease the restrictions, make things more plausible like at least double the caps and maybe ease quarantine or reduce it. So many of us thought "ok, by Nov/Dec, everyone in Australia will be vaccinated, and maybe, fully vaccinated Aussies can come home without spending two whole weeks in quarantine - maybe 5 days or a week" - and many of us would take that. Yet, the government has completely stuffed that as well.
The parlay of vaccination, caps, quarantine, borders that you say many have bought into, will pay off in time, just not to everyone's timing, unfortunately.
 

drron

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Sorry hb13 but I disagree. Do you think that there is no chance now of serious side effects with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines?It is still possible for such effects to occur. After all they are the new technology.
The Pfizer vaccine production is due to escalate later this year with a plant upgrade in Europe to produce 2 billion doses a year.

CSL is producing at close to the predicted number but the clots have had an effect on demand
Then there is Novavax. Plus I am sure that the government is in talks with other vaccine providers that you and I will have no knowledge of.

And why do you think there has to be more problems?
 

Pom-DownUnder

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The vaccines were supposed to ease the restrictions, make things more plausible like at least double the caps and maybe ease quarantine or reduce it. So many of us thought "ok, by Nov/Dec, everyone in Australia will be vaccinated, and maybe, fully vaccinated Aussies can come home without spending two whole weeks in quarantine - maybe 5 days or a week" - and many of us would take that. Yet, the government has completely stuffed that as well.

I know many of us overseas who are ok with a year of being locked out because of "medical reasons". Many of us are ok with 18 months. But we are at a situation where there is no light at the end of the tunnel. And the sad thing is many of our fellow citizens don't care and hold a view that says "pack your stuff and come back home if you don't like it".
Post automatically merged:



In a nutshell, that is how I read it. Which is unfortunately the view of most of the population it seems.
Agree all over, while i've been watching this gov screw this vaccine rollout up to the point that ACT Health arent even giving it to people who will happily take AZ (1 death per million come on, ffs, they going to get rid of skydiving/scuba diving/hand gliding in the ACT?)

I've been quite outspoken with my disgust for them mincing around waiting until feb/march when the rest of the world kicked off in nov/dec and for what? its clearly not well planned or executed.

I have been told several times that i'm free to basically rack off out the country if i dont like it, not like i have property, taxes, a disabled wife with all her specialists here or anything.
 

bulldog88

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There's a federal election coming in 2022 and most voters only care about eliminating Covid.

I can't see the government relaxing quarantine rules and risking an outbreak. It's not even clear whether being vaccinated stops someone spreading the virus. Not to mention the people who will fake a vaccine certificate.

Any aussie can fly back to Australia now, as long as they pay >$5000 for the flight and another $3000 for quarantine ..
 

MEL_Traveller

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In a nutshell, you are basically saying drop everything and come back home like it is easy to do.

I was drawing a distinction between 'stranded' and a voluntary acceptance of the risk.

Do you not actually see a problem with Aussies who want to visit home being locked out of the country at the moment? I mean it in all sincerity, are you ok with the fact that many of us cannot visit home without serious consequences to our professional lives and financial situations? Further, if we have made a successful life overseas, wherever it may be, and we don't want to throw that away, but want to visit our loved ones back home for a week or two - you are ok with that as well?

Some people I know have made the decision to come home. Others have chosen to stay overseas. Neither is necessarily easy.
 
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hb13

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Sorry hb13 but I disagree. Do you think that there is no chance now of serious side effects with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines?It is still possible for such effects to occur. After all they are the new technology.
The Pfizer vaccine production is due to escalate later this year with a plant upgrade in Europe to produce 2 billion doses a year.

CSL is producing at close to the predicted number but the clots have had an effect on demand
Then there is Novavax. Plus I am sure that the government is in talks with other vaccine providers that you and I will have no knowledge of.

And why do you think there has to be more problems?

What do you disagree with exactly? No where did I say Moderna and Pfizer may not have issues, and there may well be issues - maybe read my post again.

What I'm saying is that Australia put all of its eggs in one basket, delayed because they thought they didn't really need the vaccines and now find themselves at the back of the queue when compared to the US, the UK, Europe, the Middle East and most of the Asian countries.

And there is no Novavax yet. It has not been approved and this process may take a long time to come by, and most likely won't be available for Australians before 2022.

Are you seriously defending the government on how they have handled vaccines?
 
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The most annoying thing I read was that the government did not buy I think it was Moderna or JNJ because neither company would negotiate on price. Seemed a bit ridiculous to me to be nickel and diming when we were being told this was such a big crisis and at the same time unlimited funds were being sprayed via Job Keeper/Job Seeker and Gerry Harvey and his mates.
 

hb13

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I empathise that many cannot 'visit' home; the juxtaposition is that virtually all in Australia have been locked on this side of our border and are unable to visit family overseas. I sense your frustration but I think there is an unreasonableness to some of your commentary on measures that would afford you the capacity to traverse the border, which virtually none of us have.

It works both ways - and that's fine if you disagree with some of comments, that is why we have this forum. But why are some of my comments unreasonable? Perhaps you can explain why they're unreasonable?

What I'm trying to say is that it is crystal clear that we have a problem. People in the country don't want to see it, for those of us outside, we do see it. The government has been nothing short of disastrous in their arrogance of how they went about the vaccines and now we find ourselves in a position where the borders will remain close for a few years.

Post automatically merged:

Agree all over, while i've been watching this gov screw this vaccine rollout up to the point that ACT Health arent even giving it to people who will happily take AZ (1 death per million come on, ffs, they going to get rid of skydiving/scuba diving/hand gliding in the ACT?)

I've been quite outspoken with my disgust for them mincing around waiting until feb/march when the rest of the world kicked off in nov/dec and for what? its clearly not well planned or executed.

I have been told several times that i'm free to basically rack off out the country if i dont like it, not like i have property, taxes, a disabled wife with all her specialists here or anything.

Unfortunately for you, me and anyone who thinks the government should stop being arrogant, admit they made mistakes with the vaccines and fix the problem now, we are going to be faced with years of this border closure.
 

hb13

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The most annoying thing I read was that the government did not buy I think it was Moderna or JNJ because neither company would negotiate on price. Seemed a bit ridiculous to me to be nickel and diming when we were being told this was such a big crisis and at the same time unlimited funds were being sprayed via Job Keeper/Job Seeker and Gerry Harvey and his mates.

Exactly right - the path forward is the vaccine. The government is completely content however not opening up borders for the foreseeable future - that is what is really infuriating.
 

drron

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What do you disagree with exactly? No where did I say Moderna and Pfizer may not have issues, and there may well be issues - maybe read my post again.

What I'm saying is that Australia put all of its eggs in one basket, delayed because they thought they didn't really need the vaccines and now find themselves at the back of the queue when compared to the US, the UK, Europe, the Middle East and most of the Asian countries.

And there is no Novavax yet. It has not been approved and this process may take a long time to come by, and most likely won't be available for Australians before 2022.

Are you seriously defending the government on how they have handled vaccines?
The government did not put all their eggs in one basket. They had orders for 4 vaccines.TheTrade Minister is off to Europe in the next week to negotiate for extra vaccines.
The Novavax application to the FDA is in the process of being made now. It is expected to be available by Q3 this year.
 

bulldog88

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That is simply not correct.
I'm sure there are people stranded in countries where they are literally no flights, or no way out. These people deserve help from DFAT.

But it irks me that people in the US / UK / Europe whine about Australia being closed, when it seems easy to find a seat on SingaporeAir/United/ANA for $8000 (plus quarantine cost). All those airlines are selling seats for travel in the next 7 days.

I think for many people it's really cost / quarantine / don't have an overseas residency visa so they get stuck in Australia.

Whether you would take the risk of flying so far without being vaccinated - I suppose that's an individual choice.
 
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I'm sure there are people stranded in countries where they are literally no flights, or no way out. These people deserve help from DFAT.

But it irks me that people in the US / UK / Europe whine about Australia being closed, when it seems easy to find a seat on SingaporeAir/United/ANA for $8000 (plus quarantine cost). All those airlines are selling seats for travel in the next 7 days.

I think for many people it's really cost / quarantine / don't have an overseas residency visa so they get stuck in Australia.

Whether you would take the risk of flying so far without being vaccinated - I suppose that's an individual choice.

You know I don't believe that it is right to say in certain situations people do not deserve assistance from DFAT. It needs to be remembered that it is a Government department funded by taxpayers. I am sure there are some people who are stranded because they made dumb choices and probably should have never been allowed to leave the shores of Australia but let's face it, there is no talk that any of these people who have been bailed out via government paying for their repatriation flights or quarantine should be banned from going overseas until they have repaid the taxpayer in full.

So do you believe that $8k plus $3k for quarantine is peanuts? If so I think you are out of touch with the reality for a lot of people. Remember also there are families who might be buying 3 or more tickets. Also when we came back we could buy a ticket for $7k but once we tried to get 2 tickets on the same flight the price jumped for $24k US for the two tickets.

And I would be quite happy to fly without vaccination and I do think I should be given the choice of choosing to do so at my own risk instead of being treated like a child with an overlord making my decisions for me.
 

hb13

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I'm sure there are people stranded in countries where they are literally no flights, or no way out. These people deserve help from DFAT.

But it irks me that people in the US / UK / Europe whine about Australia being closed, when it seems easy to find a seat on SingaporeAir/United/ANA for $8000 (plus quarantine cost). All those airlines are selling seats for travel in the next 7 days.

I think for many people it's really cost / quarantine / don't have an overseas residency visa so they get stuck in Australia.

Whether you would take the risk of flying so far without being vaccinated - I suppose that's an individual choice.

You're wildly out of touch and haven't considered that there is the extra cost of time. 2 weeks away from work quarantined in a hotel for many people is two weeks of salary as well.

This is clearly the problem - views like. Out of touch and completely unaware of the many different difficulties there are just to get back to your own country.
 

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