Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[drron]

Certainly from India it is possible that the test was fake.

 

[Flashback]

You're not likely to be as infectious before you test positive, I think. There's only so much testing they can do.

Expecting people to go into quarantine before travelling internationally and all workers associated with looking after those people and transporting them to the airport doing likewise for say a few weeks prior to travel isn't going to work so there's always going to be cases that slip through.

A 'Rapid Test' can be handy but it's not as reliable, I think.

There tends to be more false positives with rapid tests, which then pushes one to a PCR for absolute confirmation.

It would be good if rapid tests were the accepted norm given the cost, ease of use, etc. but it seems PCR will continue to be the gold standard for most countries as it then allows some form of genome sequencing to be done.

 

[Seat0B]

so Victoria has its first case of covid for this round, a returning international traveller.

The earliest they could have arrived was 8th April. They had to test negative to board the flight, but were actually carrying/infectious? Or caught it on the plane (impossible according to Qantas).

What’s the point of these tests before flying? Other than great expense and inconvenience for
absentees?

It’s a pretty useless level of testing in this context, isn’t it. All it actually does is possibly exclude people who actively have COVID but are asymptomatic or in denial so they can try to board. Otherwise, as you point out, all it does is stress, inconvenience and financially impact travellers. I honestly don’t see the point.

Post automatically merged: Apr 10, 2021

PM flags major changes to international travel and quarantine

www.9news.com.au

The Federal Government has requested the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) advise what thresholds need to be met in order for vaccinated Australians to travel overseas and the quarantine arrangements that would be required.

If you want to travel overseas this year, highly suggest taking the AZ vaccine. The additional Pfizer doses are coming October 20211 if you wait for the Pfizer vaccine, you will be waiting till 2022.

It looks like they will relax rules for people who get vaccinated and this will be progressive (i.e. not that everyone gets vaccinated and then travel allowed)

Finally maybe some good news.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Not disputing that. The issue here is the pre-departure tests before being allowed to board a plane to Australia. It cost my friend $400 for a rapid test of the type suitable for entry to Oz.

The passengers arriving on these flights must have had similar tests, which must have come back negative.

Yet a day later they test positive.

What's the point in the $400 pre-departure test?

Ok, my apologies I took your question the wrong way.

I guess it will depend on what the data shows and if overall there are now less Covid 19 positive people arriving (including on first arrival test or during quarantine).

If the % has reduced, then that would also mean that the risk of breaches after arrival will less per arrival.

As we have seen quarantine is not perfect, and so the more positive people in quarantine, then the more likely that someone here is Oz will be infected and also the more likely that other passengers and aircrew get infected enroute.

As others have mentioned now some people will catch it after the test, or at the time of the test will not have enough response to test positive.

 

[jb747]

So that I don't have to keep moving my prediction target. One complete year after Oz reaches 75% vaccination. So, that's somewhere between the end of 2023 and never.

 

[oznflfan]

So that I don't have to keep moving my prediction target. One complete year after Oz reaches 75% vaccination. So, that's somewhere between the end of 2023 and never.

50th birthday present to myself being at least 5 weeks in Europe July into August 2023, so this just won't do I'm afraid.

 

[kpc]

Interesting article about OS travel: Experts warn it will take two years for world to be vaccinated

 

[burmans]

Interesting article about OS travel: Experts warn it will take two years for world to be vaccinated

Probably pretty accurate. Fortunately at this time I’ve ruled out a ‘visit every country in the world’ trip, I’d be happy to take a trip to 3/4/5 countries and, given vaccination rates vary widely that appears we will get that somewhat faster. At this stage my concern is more about whether I can get out of/back to Australia than whether there will be places to travel to.

 

[louie-m]

Interesting article about OS travel: Experts warn it will take two years for world to be vaccinated

By which time the powers that be will be saying new variants mean that we have to start the vaccination programme all over again.

 

[mviy]

There will come a point if they don’t open the borders that people will get fed up with waiting and look to exploit loopholes to leave in large numbers and take their chances as to whether they can get back, which will inevitably make it harder for those who can’t afford premium cabin tickets to get back.

Hopefully that factors into their decision a bit as to when to open up.

 

[hb13]

Thinking about this some more, I think it's becoming increasingly likely that the travel ban will remain in place (except for select travel bubbles) until after the next Federal Election. The more the completion of the vaccine rollout is delayed, the more likely that is to be the case.

I think they will want to wait till the summer school holidays are over which takes us to February 2022 and then it would only be a further three months or so to put it after a May election should that be when it takes place. Those three months could be used to try to accelerate bringing people home to clear that backlog before relaxing rules on people leaving.

That backlog won't be cleared by that period, that is almost certain. I think it is very, very, likely now that international borders will remain effectively closed till at least mid-2022 or later. The absolutely disastrous vaccine debacle will make sure of that. The reasons that the backlog won't clear, and in fact, will only increase in size is due to the following:

1. Caps are way too low, and presumably will stay that low for another 12-18 months. During this time, people who have really needed to come home will still be needing to go home, however, the list will grow faster than the rate of people going back because, for example, many of us will now be in situations where their visas are running out. I arrived to the UK in 2020, and will have till the end of 2022 till my visa is up. I will have to try and get home somehow well before then. I personally know dozens of Aussies just in London like this, with expiring 2, 3 and 5 year visas. Just imagine how many there are in the rest of the UK, Europe and the US.

2. Because of the bubble with NZ, there appears to be a loophole for Aussies to travel internationally from NZ, which will create a larger backlog for when these Aussies want to return home. If any other bubbles open up with neighbouring Asian countries (SIN for example), more of this will happen.

3. There now appears to be a push to bring in international uni students from Jan/Feb next year, which will further constrain the system.

 

[hb13]

The PCR type being the requirement to board a flight to Australia: Coronavirus (COVID-19) FAQs – international travellers to Australia

International air crew are exempt... so again the reason for requiring a PCR rather than rapid test looks less compelling.

I've seen your posts re testing and I agree with all of them. A rapid test at the airport and then PCR testing on arrival and a week later is sufficient, but this is the problem right now in Australia and many other places. Who is running the world right now - is it politicians or scientists?? In Australia it is Brendan Murphy.

The need for PCR test, after PCR test, after PCR test makes no sense. The aim to reach level of 0 risk will be one day very costly, yet no one seems to care or understand, least of all politicians.

Australia is now facing a situation where you may soon get to 100k Australians who are literally stranded overseas and can't come home because I'm sure we will continue to have hotel quarantine requirements and small caps for another 18 months or so. I'm not stranded, but want to so badly visit home, and I'm now considering putting up a ridiculous amount of money to fly home, take 4 weeks off work for quarantine and 2 weeks with family and friends. If however I wait, by the middle of next year I will be in a situation where I am stranded because my visa expires late 2022.

My biggest issue is that for the vast majority of Aussies in Australia now, this doesn't register. Australians overseas should be able to fly home at any point with little difficulty, but this just isn't happening.

 

[mviy]

There is a thread with some tips on how to get home if you are currently overseas: Travelling to Australia During COVID-19 (Guide)

There will likely come a point where I'll take my chances to exploit a loophole to get where I want to go and follow that guide if the borders remain closed. I think the risk of that happening has to factor into a decision by the government.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I've seen your posts re testing and I agree with all of them. A rapid test at the airport and then PCR testing on arrival and a week later is sufficient, but this is the problem right now in Australia and many other places. Who is running the world right now - is it politicians or scientists?? In Australia it is Brendan Murphy.

The need for PCR test, after PCR test, after PCR test makes no sense. The aim to reach level of 0 risk will be one day very costly, yet no one seems to care or understand, least of all politicians.

Australia is now facing a situation where you may soon get to 100k Australians who are literally stranded overseas and can't come home because I'm sure we will continue to have hotel quarantine requirements and small caps for another 18 months or so. I'm not stranded, but want to so badly visit home, and I'm now considering putting up a ridiculous amount of money to fly home, take 4 weeks off work for quarantine and 2 weeks with family and friends. If however I wait, by the middle of next year I will be in a situation where I am stranded because my visa expires late 2022.

My biggest issue is that for the vast majority of Aussies in Australia now, this doesn't register. Australians overseas should be able to fly home at any point with little difficulty, but this just isn't happening.

But that sounds like a voluntary acceptance to being stranded in the sense that you could have come home last year before the lockdowns were imposed, and you could come home now. But you are choosing to stay until the end of your UK visa. That's a different situation to people I'd consider genuinely stranded in the sense that they can't even get to an airport to get a flight home (due to regional lockdowns, travel bans etc).

 

[hb13]

But that sounds like a voluntary acceptance to being stranded in the sense that you could have come home last year before the lockdowns were imposed, and you could come home now. But you are choosing to stay until the end of your UK visa. That's a different situation to people I'd consider genuinely stranded in the sense that they can't even get to an airport to get a flight home (due to regional lockdowns, travel bans etc).

You have obviously misunderstood my point. I don't consider myself stranded at all, and I want to finish out my stay. I'm perfectly happy being here, however, I really want to see my family and friends. And I for this, I will wait.

If we fast forward 12 months, I will be in a different situation where I will then be stranded because I will have no choice but to come home, because my visa will run out in a few months. At that point, I will be stranded because I'm sure the caps and hotel quarantine will still be there. As time passes by, more and more Australians who are in a position with expiring visas in countries all over the world will then need to get home, which is extremely difficult.

 

[dajop]

I've seen yMy biggest issue is that for the vast majority of Aussies in Australia now, this doesn't register. Australians overseas should be able to fly home at any point with little difficulty,

Your being a bit optimistic in thinking that it’s simply a matter of it not registering. It’s way worse than that. Read the comments every time the Age talks about hotel quarantine, or aussies overseas and 90% of comments are negative - the themes being about people who left Australia tough ... you went for a better life you can stay there, to tax related arguments (don’t pay tax in Australia so get lost why should we support you type arguments), to the line everyone should have come home 12 months ago .... it’s borderline offensive and if “Australians living overseas” were a specific race most of the comments wouldn’t be published due to racism.

Meanwhile I will apologise, but it’s looking good for us to come back to Australia again from Singapore, as Scoot ex-SIN seem to often have seats. But I do feel like we’ll be completely wasting valuable quarantine spaces, it’s a bit ridiculous we couldn’t just do quarantine at home. as we will be fully vaccinated, coming from a place where if the trend of the last four months keeps up, the community spread of the virus is negligible (8 new local cases in the last month - all of which were foreigners who also returned positive serology results - likely to be indicative of past rather than new infection), and will have our tests before departure.

 

[hb13]

Your being a bit optimistic in thinking that it’s simply a matter of it not registering. It’s way worse than that. Read the comments every time the Age talks about hotel quarantine, or aussies overseas and 90% of comments are negative - the themes being about people who left Australia tough ... you went for a better life you can stay there, to tax related arguments (don’t pay tax in Australia so get lost why should we support you type arguments), to the line everyone should have come home 12 months ago .... it’s borderline offensive and if “Australians living overseas” were a specific race most of the comments wouldn’t be published due to racism.

Meanwhile I will apologise, but it’s looking good for us to come back to Australia again from Singapore, as Scoot ex-SIN seem to often have seats. But I do feel like we’ll be completely wasting valuable quarantine spaces, it’s a bit ridiculous we couldn’t just do quarantine at home. as we will be fully vaccinated, coming from a place where if the trend of the last four months keeps up, the community spread of the virus is negligible (8 new local cases in the last month - all of which were foreigners who also returned positive serology results - likely to be indicative of past rather than new infection), and will have our tests before departure.

As I'm not based in Australia now, I can only imagine how bad it is, and this is the huge problem. And this is why the government has left so many Aussies literally out in the cold. Yet, nothing will change, and this is the scary thing about it for us. Towards the end of last year, I, and many Aussies I speak to here in the UK thought "surely sometime in 2021" we can visit home without having to pay for two weeks of hotel quarantine. Yet, here we are in April 2021 - and it is looking worse than it ever has.

If states are still closing borders due to a handful of cases, there is absolutely no hope for us overseas anytime soon. I would have thought that the earliest we (Aussies in UK/Europe/US) can come without having to fight for a seat on a plane with only 30 spots available and to quarantine in a hotel maybe a couple of years. Unfortunately, the majority of the population are ok with that.

 

[drron]

The vaccine program is not an absolute disaster. The problem with the AZ vaccine was not foreseeable. But as I have been saying all along we did the right thing not going to emergency authorisation. The reason for that because problem often arise after more widespread use.

It is also too pessimistic to think that the vaccination program will take long into 2022 to complete. With 40 million Pfizer doses now due this year along with the Novavax becoming available by at least the 4th quarter everyone who wants to be vaccinated should be able to by the end of the year.
As well as people like me who are still willing to have the AZ vaccine.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

You have obviously misunderstood my point. I don't consider myself stranded at all, and I want to finish out my stay. I'm perfectly happy being here, however, I really want to see my family and friends. And I for this, I will wait.

If we fast forward 12 months, I will be in a different situation where I will then be stranded because I will have no choice but to come home, because my visa will run out in a few months. At that point, I will be stranded because I'm sure the caps and hotel quarantine will still be there. As time passes by, more and more Australians who are in a position with expiring visas in countries all over the world will then need to get home, which is extremely difficult.

My point was that there are some situations that I wouldn't ever consider as 'stranded'. People know the situation with border closures, caps, airline schedules and new variants is unpredictable, yet despite all of that, chose to accept the risk and stay in the UK (or wherever else). There are seats out of London on the 20th of April, in both economy and premium economy classes, for as little as £735. 'Moving home' is a valid reason to travel out of the UK under the current restrictions.

I agree there are some cases for people overseas where the situation is out of their control, such as caring for a sick parent or sibling, or perhaps undertaking medical treatment that can't be interrupted or moved to Oz. I think those travel needs need to be assessed once the particular situation resolves.

 

[mviy]

There are seats out of London on the 20th of April, in both economy and premium economy classes, for as little as £735.

Just because tickets are offered for sale, it doesn't necessarily mean that passengers won't get bumped off flights due to someone willing to pay more e.g. to fly business/first class.

As time passes by, more and more Australians who are in a position with expiring visas in countries all over the world will then need to get home, which is extremely difficult.

If that happens the government could eventually face a diplomatic crisis as foreign governments demand airlines flying to Australia take more Australian passengers they're deporting than what Australia wants to let in. We're not at that point yet, but if the borders remain closed I could see that happening. This is one reason why I think the Feds want to get a plan in place to gradually ease restrictions as soon as targets set by the health authorities are met indicating that it's safe to do so.

Currently if someone is deported one of the 30(?) places on a flight would be taken by that person and someone else bumped off. But if they want to deport 50 on a flight and Australia only wants to take 30 there would be a problem.