Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

N860CR

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They are seeing an average of 170K cases per day, this is not much of a victory

I just provided facts. I don’t have first hand knowledge of what exactly has caused the drop in cases.

I would say any reduction is quite a victory and hopefully shows movement in the right direction. The narrative around the USA and UK (ie they’re stuffed, it’s a lost cause, they got it wrong etc etc) have actually conditioned the public to look at even positive changes in a negative light.
 
AMX001595_Travel-Insider_1100x260

Gremlin

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Right on both points, for Australia at least. Close contacts of an infected person have to isolate at home, and that's the bulk of the isolations I think. Not their family members. Of course, if the infected person is at home, the rest of the household are treated as close contacts and have to isolate.
All states in Australia require primary contacts to isolate. Most, but not all, states in Australia now want secondary contacts to isolate (ie contacts of contacts). By definition, if your family member or housemate is a primary contact, you will be a secondary contact and, in those states, will be isolating. It's worth noting that those states isolating secondary contacts as standard practice have had their borders reopened to other states faster than, say, New South Wales.

(I realise the comment was originally talking about isolation upon return from OS and not from a positive in the community)
 
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I just saw that NZ Premier Jacinda Ardern was disappointed by the Australian's government reaction to closing the one-way bubble after the first case in NZ in two months.

While I do think it is ridiculous that one case prompts this - does anyone understand why NZ has not reciprocated and why this bubble is still only one-way? What is the reasoning behind this? Genuine question - because if I was Scott Morrison, I'd be asking when this bubble is actually going to eventuate.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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I just saw that NZ Premier Jacinda Ardern was disappointed by the Australian's government reaction to closing the one-way bubble after the first case in NZ in two months.

While I do think it is ridiculous that one case prompts this - does anyone understand why NZ has not reciprocated and why this bubble is still only one-way? What is the reasoning behind this? Genuine question - because if I was Scott Morrison, I'd be asking when this bubble is actually going to eventuate.
NZ indicated around December that quarantine free arrivals from Australia was possible by Q1 2021 if nothing changed.

Clearly things changed with the Northern Beaches Avalon cluster
 

twiningb

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I just saw that NZ Premier Jacinda Ardern was disappointed by the Australian's government reaction to closing the one-way bubble after the first case in NZ in two months.

While I do think it is ridiculous that one case prompts this - does anyone understand why NZ has not reciprocated and why this bubble is still only one-way? What is the reasoning behind this? Genuine question - because if I was Scott Morrison, I'd be asking when this bubble is actually going to eventuate.
Well, if one were extremely cynical one might conclude that the NZ PM's position isn't entirely grounded in the greatest of faith.
 

RAM

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Back last August I was tossing up whether or not I'd travel overseas to deal with some urgent business-related issues - in the end I decided not to. I was even prepared to honour the '3 months' period and not just say that I would & return earlier (if I got a flight that is).

Today there is no way I would contemplate that.

Too much new information has been released since then - to me the most alarming is the 'long CV' syndrome impacting otherwise healthy individuals aged from the early 20s through to 100 year olds.

__________________________________________________________________________________

For countries to open their international borders without fear of closing them down (if not reeling from a collapsing economy) requires confidence that resuming international travel will not make things worse.

In Australia's case there are more Australians, Aust Perm residents etc - who go overseas on holiday each year then there are foreign nationals who holiday in Australia. Indeed the ABS is considering having to change their assumptions on how international students contribute to the 'tourism balance' as the working assumption was the cost of their education/accom/food was sent in from overseas and not mostly funded by working in Australia.

Even so, Australia runs a travel/tourism deficit of > $20 bn per annum. The travel industry has been using the spin doctors to try & portray Chinese tourists (bow to the Chairman now) as the economy's saviour by saying they spend multiples of what an Australian domestic tourist does. What they do not say though is that in total Australian domestic tourists spend over 4x as much as ALL international tourists (including students which we now know as massively over-stated).

WA has operated the hardest internal borders yet their domestic tourism (not predominantly focused on high spending international tourists like up-market hotel chains, resorts, restaurants etc) has reportedly had one of their best years. A recent ABC piece on NSW regional tourism interviewed a number of accomodation providers (owner operators) who reported good to best ever results for 2020. Byron Bay region were amongst those reporting best ever results.
________________________________________________________________________________

Due to the design of many of these drug trials - seemingly none checked to see whether it made recipients non-contagious.
________________________________________________________________________________

The spin doctors have taken over the messaging from science.

Look up any source for the definition of Vaccine and it will say something along these line:

"a substance used to stimulate the production of antibodies and provide immunity against one or several diseases"

So far none of the 'emergency approved' drugs provide immunity - they appear to lessen the symptoms or decrease the severity which is far better than not. Calling them vaccines though is a bit of a stretch.
_________________________________________________________________________________

Late last week there were some articles about 'long covid' where people are suffering serious (potentially lifelong) side effects of contracting CV. A common trait is the inflammation of membranes in the brain, lungs, heart and other organs. What is slowly gaining more focus is that younger seemingly healthy to extremely healthy people who had mild CV (non-symptomatic) and had no previous underlying medical conditions are now suffering potentially life-threatening conditions.

Many of these people were only detected as having previously had CV when they were admitted for their current issues & tested by the respective hospital.

Whilst decreasing the seriousness of CV - these 'vaccines' may have the unintended consequence of making a much more insidious outcome across the entire community. If this is a widespread outcome then the potential cost to treat could make the costs-to-date from CV seem minor.

This is a good article about just one of such outcomes:


If we look to Europe, a series of large online questionnaires focusing on COVID-19 recovery found that less than one percent of surveyed patients were symptom-free 79 days after the infection – which suggests the high likelihood of PCNS in over 90 per cent infected people.

The European survey involved more than 2,000 non-hospitalised younger COVID-19 patients and just over 100 hospitalised (but only mildly affected) COVID-19 patients with a mean age 47 years and good health before the COVID-19 infection.

(Chinese study) A total of 730 COVID-19 clinically stable patients were assessed and a large percentage – 96.2 per cent – were found be suffering from severe PTSD; something we believe is one of the first signs of PCNS.

Similar reports have previously been reported following the SARS epidemic in 2009. Almost 50 per cent of people recovering from the virus developed PTSD symptoms that were still evident four years after infection.

____________________________________________________________________________

The 'Phase 3 trial' methodolgy for the 2 MRNA based vaccines probably would not have been allowed in non-pandemic times - but as the saying goes "A drowning man will clutch at a straw".

None of the 'expedited' Phase 3 trials for any of the currently in use globally 'drugs called vaccines' (AFAIK or can find) have released any data on whether they prevent or even lessen the degree to which someone infected with CV may pass it on to others. BTW these trials are still ongoing which is why the 'Emergency use' or 'Conditional' approvals have been given - in Pfizer's case it runs for 2 years post treatment.

So the final results of the Pfizer trial will not be gathered until mid to late 2022.

The Pfizer trials did not do physical testing along the way (Astra Zeneca did though) - instead it had researchers call the participants once a fortnight and ask about their daily diary. "Did you experience any symptoms in the past fortnight?"

"symptomatic illness occurs ≥ 15 days post second dose of study intervention. Otherwise, a participant is not defined as a COVID-19 case"

So it misses all non-symptomatic cases - the same as it would for those participants given the placebo.

This very short piece in the British Medical Journal provides a few good questions & has links to the methodlogies used in the leading trials. Downloads as a two page PDF.

Covid-19 vaccine trial protocols released - The BMJ |

 

Seat0B

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I haven't seen my family for over a year and yet I count myself as one of the relatively lucky ones. I haven't been affected financially and I'm healthy - however, mentally its tough when I have absolutely no idea when I can see family again, while knowing full well it's likely to be more than a year away.
me too, same circumstances, although i have lost a fair bit of work, but I was all but ready to retire anyway. I just need a date to work towards when I will see my son who lives overseas again. Feeling very meh at the moment as today I should have been meeting up with my whole family together in Japan - it's already a full year and now who know how much longer.
 

Pushka

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me too, same circumstances, although i have lost a fair bit of work, but I was all but ready to retire anyway. I just need a date to work towards when I will see my son who lives overseas again. Feeling very meh at the moment as today I should have been meeting up with my whole family together in Japan - it's already a full year and now who know how much longer.
And wouldn't that date be a blessing for us. I'm hoping for Christmas 🤞. I won't mind doing the two weeks quarantine being vaccinated but at home. Very manageable.
 

oznflfan

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Back last August I was tossing up whether or not I'd travel overseas to deal with some urgent business-related issues - in the end I decided not to. I was even prepared to honour the '3 months' period and not just say that I would & return earlier (if I got a flight that is).

Today there is no way I would contemplate that.

Too much new information has been released since then - to me the most alarming is the 'long CV' syndrome impacting otherwise healthy individuals aged from the early 20s through to 100 year olds.

__________________________________________________________________________________

For countries to open their international borders without fear of closing them down (if not reeling from a collapsing economy) requires confidence that resuming international travel will not make things worse.

In Australia's case there are more Australians, Aust Perm residents etc - who go overseas on holiday each year then there are foreign nationals who holiday in Australia. Indeed the ABS is considering having to change their assumptions on how international students contribute to the 'tourism balance' as the working assumption was the cost of their education/accom/food was sent in from overseas and not mostly funded by working in Australia.

Even so, Australia runs a travel/tourism deficit of > $20 bn per annum. The travel industry has been using the spin doctors to try & portray Chinese tourists (bow to the Chairman now) as the economy's saviour by saying they spend multiples of what an Australian domestic tourist does. What they do not say though is that in total Australian domestic tourists spend over 4x as much as ALL international tourists (including students which we now know as massively over-stated).

WA has operated the hardest internal borders yet their domestic tourism (not predominantly focused on high spending international tourists like up-market hotel chains, resorts, restaurants etc) has reportedly had one of their best years. A recent ABC piece on NSW regional tourism interviewed a number of accomodation providers (owner operators) who reported good to best ever results for 2020. Byron Bay region were amongst those reporting best ever results.
________________________________________________________________________________

Due to the design of many of these drug trials - seemingly none checked to see whether it made recipients non-contagious.
________________________________________________________________________________

The spin doctors have taken over the messaging from science.

Look up any source for the definition of Vaccine and it will say something along these line:

"a substance used to stimulate the production of antibodies and provide immunity against one or several diseases"

So far none of the 'emergency approved' drugs provide immunity - they appear to lessen the symptoms or decrease the severity which is far better than not. Calling them vaccines though is a bit of a stretch.
_________________________________________________________________________________

Late last week there were some articles about 'long covid' where people are suffering serious (potentially lifelong) side effects of contracting CV. A common trait is the inflammation of membranes in the brain, lungs, heart and other organs. What is slowly gaining more focus is that younger seemingly healthy to extremely healthy people who had mild CV (non-symptomatic) and had no previous underlying medical conditions are now suffering potentially life-threatening conditions.

Many of these people were only detected as having previously had CV when they were admitted for their current issues & tested by the respective hospital.

Whilst decreasing the seriousness of CV - these 'vaccines' may have the unintended consequence of making a much more insidious outcome across the entire community. If this is a widespread outcome then the potential cost to treat could make the costs-to-date from CV seem minor.

This is a good article about just one of such outcomes:


If we look to Europe, a series of large online questionnaires focusing on COVID-19 recovery found that less than one percent of surveyed patients were symptom-free 79 days after the infection – which suggests the high likelihood of PCNS in over 90 per cent infected people.

The European survey involved more than 2,000 non-hospitalised younger COVID-19 patients and just over 100 hospitalised (but only mildly affected) COVID-19 patients with a mean age 47 years and good health before the COVID-19 infection.

(Chinese study) A total of 730 COVID-19 clinically stable patients were assessed and a large percentage – 96.2 per cent – were found be suffering from severe PTSD; something we believe is one of the first signs of PCNS.

Similar reports have previously been reported following the SARS epidemic in 2009. Almost 50 per cent of people recovering from the virus developed PTSD symptoms that were still evident four years after infection.

____________________________________________________________________________

The 'Phase 3 trial' methodolgy for the 2 MRNA based vaccines probably would not have been allowed in non-pandemic times - but as the saying goes "A drowning man will clutch at a straw".

None of the 'expedited' Phase 3 trials for any of the currently in use globally 'drugs called vaccines' (AFAIK or can find) have released any data on whether they prevent or even lessen the degree to which someone infected with CV may pass it on to others. BTW these trials are still ongoing which is why the 'Emergency use' or 'Conditional' approvals have been given - in Pfizer's case it runs for 2 years post treatment.

So the final results of the Pfizer trial will not be gathered until mid to late 2022.

The Pfizer trials did not do physical testing along the way (Astra Zeneca did though) - instead it had researchers call the participants once a fortnight and ask about their daily diary. "Did you experience any symptoms in the past fortnight?"

"symptomatic illness occurs ≥ 15 days post second dose of study intervention. Otherwise, a participant is not defined as a COVID-19 case"

So it misses all non-symptomatic cases - the same as it would for those participants given the placebo.

This very short piece in the British Medical Journal provides a few good questions & has links to the methodlogies used in the leading trials. Downloads as a two page PDF.

Covid-19 vaccine trial protocols released - The BMJ |

Well written and don't disagree with comments.

I'm late 40's but not in best health I acknowledge COVID and long COVID, so don't want to get it.

Yes we Australian's spend more oversea's than oversea's spend here, that's why pollies and premiers want us to spend all those big $$$ domestically and we'll be all good. Thing is a lot don't spend big here, even if they holidays here as opposed to oversea's. Now where this could change is years of border closures could change our mindset as we just give up on oversea's travel.

I'm booking two weeks in Singapore end of March 2022 as soon as QFF flights come on line (end of April 2021). Plan is to cross into Malaysia and explore up to KL/Penang & then back to Singapore. If I have to cancel so be it, only lose 6,000 QFF points. Won't book any accom until last minute.

Big holiday for 30/40 days maybe second half of 2023 to USA/UK/France. Again cross fingers.
 

dajop

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Even so, Australia runs a travel/tourism deficit of > $20 bn per annum. The travel industry has been using the spin doctors to try & portray Chinese tourists (bow to the Chairman now) as the economy's saviour by saying they spend multiples of what an Australian domestic tourist does. What they do not say though is that in total Australian domestic tourists spend over 4x as much as ALL international tourists (including students which we now know as massively over-stated).

WA has operated the hardest internal borders yet their domestic tourism (not predominantly focused on high spending international tourists like up-market hotel chains, resorts, restaurants etc) has reportedly had one of their best years. A recent ABC piece on NSW regional tourism interviewed a number of accomodation providers (owner operators) who reported good to best ever results for 2020. Byron Bay region were amongst those reporting best ever results.

My gut feel, based on anecdotal observations on Victoria:
- Regional tourism is doing very well. We've been renting our holiday house for 4 years now, and this year was our highest occupancy (and highest rates) yet.
- In Melbourne, tourism is suffering. Hotels are very empty. Both lack of international and interstate tourists (with lack of confidence in interstate travel) are contributing to this. I did 3 days as a Melbourne "tourist" (one of the few "international tourists" in Melbourne during January, so to speak) and everywhere was very quiet. Except South Melbourne Beach on a hot day 🤣 Would it be the same in Sydney?
 

oznflfan

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My gut feel, based on anecdotal observations on Victoria:
- Regional tourism is doing very well. We've been renting our holiday house for 4 years now, and this year was our highest occupancy (and highest rates) yet.
- In Melbourne, tourism is suffering. Hotels are very empty. Both lack of international and interstate tourists (with lack of confidence in interstate travel) are contributing to this. I did 3 days as a Melbourne "tourist" (one of the few "international tourists" in Melbourne during January, so to speak) and everywhere was very quiet. Except South Melbourne Beach on a hot day 🤣 Would it be the same in Sydney?
I'm going on 'holiday' to Melbourne March 18-23 for Round 1 AFL. Never worn a facemask, that may change ala Dan's request. Crossing fingers COVID safe and donuts all around leading up to Richmond v Carlton at the G Thursday night. MCG crowd % still TBA.
 

RAM

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Well written and don't disagree with comments.

I'm late 40's but not in best health I acknowledge COVID and long COVID, so don't want to get it.

Yes we Australian's spend more oversea's than oversea's spend here, that's why pollies and premiers want us to spend all those big $$$ domestically and we'll be all good. Thing is a lot don't spend big here, even if they holidays here as opposed to oversea's. Now where this could change is years of border closures could change our mindset as we just give up on oversea's travel.

I'm booking two weeks in Singapore end of March 2022 as soon as QFF flights come on line (end of April 2021). Plan is to cross into Malaysia and explore up to KL/Penang & then back to Singapore. If I have to cancel so be it, only lose 6,000 QFF points. Won't book any accom until last minute.

Big holiday for 30/40 days maybe second half of 2023 to USA/UK/France. Again cross fingers.
Backslapping society founding members but...

Agree with all you say but one additional point - from an economic/whole of Australia perspective the net saving of > $20 billion/year adds 1% to GDP vs it being spent overseas. If you don't spend it (not you personally now that would be a holiday 😂 😂) then for a large proportion of the population they have not run up CC bills or paid down less on their mortgage which is a better financial outcome for them.

The group that suffers the most are the banks & other CC providers, large/upscale chain hotels suffer but they are predominantly overseas-corporation run (so not such a large hit to the Australian economy vs the benefit to those living in Australia overall).

Perhaps the biggest losers from the closed borders should be Crown Casino & Star Casino but then again I imagine there have probably been enough exemptions granted to ease their pain (other than the CCP's crackdown on illegal marketing by one Australian Casino group that is).
___________________________________________

I don't know but suspect that in reality there is not enough capacity (outside of mainland CBDs or nearby) for the same amount to be spent in Australia as Australians normally spend to go overseas.

Has anyone seen or know where to look to get an idea of the various State's regional train service use over 2020? Other than a few special cases (The Ghan perhaps) - I would have thought it would have at least stayed the same as 2019 if not increased.
_____________________________________________

For those really keen to go 'overseas' - you could do what our family tried to do some years back (until Deathstar mucked it up) and fly over seas to:
  • Tasmania
  • Lord Howe Island
  • Norfolk Island
To name a few, although duty free may be missing.
 

dajop

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Has anyone seen or know where to look to get an idea of the various State's regional train service use over 2020? Other than a few special cases (The Ghan perhaps) - I would have thought it would have at least stayed the same as 2019 if not increased.

In Victoria, I'd suggest way way way way down. But these are predominantly commuter services, and 6 months of lockdown and a "ring of steel" has an effect.
 

Pom-DownUnder

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$559,833,000,000 collected in taxation in 2019 financial year.

Tourism spends more overseas than it does at home ... this would indicate its important to your population.

The population that provides the above figure in tax revenue every year.

Prioritise it.

(on the net loss for tourism I would raise the counter point of net profit from net migration, which has also been stopped).

Shoot us up with vaccine and get out of the way of the borders.
 
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drron

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Sorry to burst your bubble but you have conflated different issues.
The Post Covid 19 neurological syndrome is not the same as the Long covid Syndrome.If you read the link you supplied they have studied 14 patients not thousands.
PTSD is again not the post covid 19 neurological syndrome or Long Covid syndrome but a separate psychiatric illness.The suggestion that 96.2% incidence suggests that there is more than just the viral infection.The study is from China and you must remember the early pictures from there.People dragged out of their houses and forcibly restrained in hospitals.Others locked in their homes.Doctors who dissented disappeared or had an early death.And of course the constant negativity in the discussion of Covid from the media.

Then you really tie yourself up on the definition of immunity and vaccines.All the Phase 3 trials measured the antibody response and found that it was basically the same as that produced by having the virus.Now certainly there have been cases of those who have had a reinfection with covid but the numbers are small.Can you tell me why you believe similiar antibody levels induced by a vaccine would be any different?

And I have twice posted the results of the SIREN study from the UK.Health Care workers who have had covid occasionally are found to have live virus in their nose and throat.Usually low levels so a low risk ,but not zero, of infecting someone else.Now this can only happen in a vaccinated person if they actually get infected and this has been shown to be in lower numbers than unvaccinated people in the trial.As well many of the infections in the vaccinated people occurred early after the vaccine was given when we know antibody levels are not yet in the required range.

Then your implication that Conditional approval of the Pfizer vaccine by Australia is in some way proof the vaccine is unreliable.Utter tripe.Conditional approval ia always given for a new vaccine or drug as the trials always are not large enough to absolutely prove the effects of the vaccine or drug.The 2 year Conditional approval with full approval 2 years later is in fact the norm.it gives time with much larger numbers for any rare or unsuspected side effect to become noticeable.Though sometimes even that timeline is too short and drugs and vaccines have in the past been withdrawn after having been given full approval.
 

clifford

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$559,833,000,000 collected in taxation in 2019 financial year.

Tourism spends more overseas than it does at home ... this would indicate its important to your population.

The population that provides the above figure in tax revenue every year.

Prioritise it.

(on the net loss for tourism I would raise the counter point of net profit from net migration, which has also been stopped).

Shoot us up with vaccine and get out of the way of the borders.
Perhaps you'd be better off getting your views progressed in the UK. Boris would no doubt go along....
 
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