Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[trevella]

As I understand, if they get 164 COVID infections, and for example 16 infections amongst vaccinated, and remaining 148 infected had placebo, 148/164 = 90% efficiacy level.

It doesn't work like that. Say 82 of the 164 had taken the vaccine and 82 the placebo. That's 0% efficacy (completely useless), not 50%.

 

[ayushamity]

Scott Morrison reveals countries you may be able to holiday in first

The prime minister said international travel would be one topic of discussion when the National Cabinet meets on Friday.

www.dailymail.co.uk

China really ? Lol. But I guess Singapore has opened to China so their numbers must be trustworthy

I am not expecting anything out of the National cabinet meeting on Friday. More 'discussions' and nothing else

They started having 'discussions' last month about quarantine free travel with Asia and they are still just 'discussing'.

 

[Virgin Bart]

They started having 'discussions' last month about quarantine free travel with Asia and they are still just 'discussing'.

Long chat!

 

[jgreenspoon]

I was unfortunate enough to witness his overly wordy smirky news conference

he specifically said there will be no decisions made on international travel, only discussion on countries and appropriate quarantine measures that might be put in place (I assume this means a transition from the unaffordable and unsustainable hotel quarantine system)

 

[jakeseven7]

I was unfortunate enough to witness his overly wordy smirky news conference

he specifically said there will be no decisions made on international travel, only discussion on countries and appropriate quarantine measures that might be put in place (I assume this means a transition from the unaffordable and unsustainable hotel quarantine system)

I agree and with that, the can was kicked well and truly down the road again.

The only exception I can see bubbling up as a real and near opportunity is NZ, but the ongoing transmission in Sydney is spooking them clearly.

 

[ayushamity]

I seriously don't get why they do not allow outbound travel to countries which are open to us and low infections (like SIngapore).

If a country is willing to accept us and has low infection rates, then there should not be a problem. Because returning from those countries will be quarantine free so not taking up spots in hotel quarantine

 

[oznflfan]

It doesn't work like that. Say 82 of the 164 had taken the vaccine and 82 the placebo. That's 0% efficacy (completely useless), not 50%.

Noted. Maybe my oversimplification in assessment, guided by initial 90% efficacy and trying to make the numbers calculate.

Tried googling how they work out the efficacy percentage and came up blank. Maybe have to wait for formal Phase 3 results?

Post automatically merged: Nov 10, 2020

I agree and with that, the can was kicked well and truly down the road again.

The only exception I can see bubbling up as a real and near opportunity is NZ, but the ongoing transmission in Sydney is spooking them clearly.

Doesn't spook Singapore though, maybe focus more on them than NZ.

 

[dajop]

I seriously don't get why they do not allow outbound travel to countries which are open to us and low infections (like SIngapore).

If a country is willing to accept us and has low infection rates, then there should not be a problem. Because returning from those countries will be quarantine free so not taking up spots in hotel quarantine

Returning from those countries at the moment still comes with quarantine conditions, so would take up spots. But the question is whether there is sufficient degree of comfort to move to a similar approach to that adopted for travellers from NZ.

Hotel quarantine has been happening now for 7 months. There should be good data to inform such decisions (hopefully they have had the wisdom to collect the data on people's whereabouts in previous 14 days, and not just the origin of the flight they've taken).

With the situation re: Singapore, no "discussions" are needed with a foreign government (with the exception of WA ), the decision is now one entirely for Australia and Australia alone. Just the like the decision for quarantine free travel from Australia to NZ is one for the NZ government and the NZ government alone.

 

[jakeseven7]

With the situation re: Singapore, no "discussions" are needed with a foreign government (with the exception of WA ), the decision is now one entirely for Australia and Australia alone. Just the like the decision for quarantine free travel from Australia to NZ is one for the NZ government and the NZ government alone.

But only certain states have agreed to the bubble's associated 'terms and conditions' to allow the international flights into Australia the first place right... TAS, VIC, NSW, ACT and NT.

SA has gone quiet (maybe I missed them joining?).

WA and QLD well we all know that story.

 

[ayushamity]

But only certain states have agreed to the bubble's associated 'terms and conditions' to allow the international flights into Australia the first place right... TAS, VIC, NSW, ACT and NT.

It is my understanding that not all states have to agree to the travel bubble conditions. For NZ, WA did not agree and still is not agreeing.

 

[dajop]

It is my understanding that not all states have to agree to the travel bubble conditions. For NZ, WA did not agree and still is not agreeing.

In practical terms any states that require entry permits, or some form of proof of residence to enter them, can exclude bubble travellers. If no permit or proof is required there is no practical measure to stop people just slinking into the jurisdiction.

 

[drron]

Possibly there are those who can afford to just slink.
.

Off the northern coast of Norfolk Island today heading ENE.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

very positive news:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1326082402884718594

 

[oznflfan]

very positive news:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1326082402884718594

Positive news, but add minimum 6 months to whatever he is saying, and another minimum 6 months to Australian Government to respond in opening up enough. Wanting to attend Goodwood in UK mid July 2022, and hopeful that can happen. Was 70% positive this could be done, this maybe pushes me above 80% positive this trip can be done. If vaccine is proven by end of year to fully work and be approved, maybe bump up to 90%.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

To be allowed to leave you need to show leaving for 3 months of a sorts. To return quarantine free, you need to come from a country/place with average of less than 3 new cases over 3 days (ie 8 or less cases over 3 days) - That's the current test NZ has to meet for continued quarantine free arrivals.

Yes with say Singapore you might be able to segment new cases along community v foreign workers don't mix to meet the current test. But I'm not sure culturally Australia (with or without National Cabinet input) would accept that distinction at this point in time (and I would guess even for the next 3 months).

I guess the more likely pathway is to try to get Pacific Islands as quarantine-free arrivals before NZ, perhaps the only thing holding that up is assurance that the Pacific Islands don't open up to other countries deemed higher risk ie more than 8 cases over 3 days. Right now - Pacific Island fruit pickers still need to do quarantine, so its notionally even a harder first step after making NZ a quarnatine free location.

 

[dajop]

To be allowed to leave you need to show leaving for 3 months of a sorts. To return quarantine free, you need to come from a country/place with average of less than 3 new cases over 3 days (ie 8 or less cases over 3 days) - That's the current test NZ has to meet for continued quarantine free arrivals.

Yes with say Singapore you might be able to segment new cases along community v foreign workers don't mix to meet the current test. But I'm not sure culturally Australia (with or without National Cabinet input) would accept that distinction at this point in time (and I would guess even for the next 3 months).

Even without the distinction between community and foreign workers, the last time Singapore exceeded 8 local cases (ie. excluding hotel quarantine) over previous 3 days was 9th October. Right now, the total number of new infections over the last 14 days is 9. So it would meet the criteria - even without the distinction.

If you exclude dormitory based foreign workers, which as you suggest would be a tough sell, last time we exceeded 8 local cases was 1st September , with only 3 new infections recorded over last 14 days as of today.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Even without the distinction between community and foreign workers, the last time Singapore exceeded 8 local cases (ie. excluding hotel quarantine) over previous 3 days was 9th October. Right now, the total number of new infections over the last 14 days is 9. So it would meet the criteria - even without the distinction.

If you exclude dormitory based foreign workers, which as you suggest would be a tough sell, last time we exceeded 8 local cases was 1st September , with only 3 new infections recorded over last 14 days as of today.

Sure, nice start. But the other point I made is a level of assurance of non-pourous borders into the community - Australia hasn't even got to the point of Pacific Islands yet, which arguably is a simpler case. Presumably Singapore's system is similar to NZ - but perhaps there is sort of an element of quarantine free arrivals in Singapore that Australia needs to get their head around. The thinking that Australia buys into Singapore (ie allows Singapore travellers quarantine free into Australia), Australia buys into Singapore's decision/system (ie whoever Singapore allowed into Singapore quarantine free).

 

[jakeseven7]

Sure, nice start. But the other point I made is a level of assurance of non-pourous borders into the community - Australia hasn't even got to the point of Pacific Islands yet, which arguably is a simpler case. Presumably Singapore's system is similar to NZ - but perhaps there is sort of an element of quarantine free arrivals in Singapore that Australia needs to get their head around. The thinking that Australia buys into Singapore (ie allows Singapore travellers quarantine free into Australia), Australia buys into Singapore's decision/system (ie whoever Singapore allowed into Singapore quarantine free).

Exactly... which is why probably only very like minded countries like NZ will probably ever be used like this.... I think they’ll just wait for a vaccine...

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Positive news, but add minimum 6 months to whatever he is saying, and another minimum 6 months to Australian Government to respond in opening up enough. Wanting to attend Goodwood in UK mid July 2022, and hopeful that can happen. Was 70% positive this could be done, this maybe pushes me above 80% positive this trip can be done. If vaccine is proven by end of year to fully work and be approved, maybe bump up to 90%.

I just don't see this as possible... taking 'spring' 2021... adding another 6+6 months gives us spring 2022, or our autumn here in Australia. I don't see how we can keep closed to family, tourists, students, etc all that time. And if they're going to start allowing in vaccinated people from overseas... I think Aussies are going to demand to be allowed out ourselves!

 

[oznflfan]

I just don't see this as possible... taking 'spring' 2021... adding another 6+6 months gives us spring 2022, or our autumn here in Australia. I don't see how we can keep closed to family, tourists, students, etc all that time. And if they're going to start allowing in vaccinated people from overseas... I think Aussies are going to demand to be allowed out ourselves!

Look how cautious government had been opening anything, and how compliant as a population we have been so far. I reckon we'll be lucky to be given the green light for 2022 oversea's travel by the end of 2021. To be honest I'd be happy with that.