Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

So the UAE has decided to approve dozens of flight with thousands of passengers (and crews) with no guarantees for their ssfety and serious risk the reputation of their airlines. Sure.

They work off intel. It's likely more to do with the US having eliminated the IRGC navy and taken out most/all of the SAM sites that are in range of the UAE.


Seems incredibly unlikely that a detailed "gentleman's agreement" has been passed from today's Ayatollah, to local teams in the field to respect a specific air corridor for UAE commercial flights.

Iran's military is now operating in "mosaic" mode. Basically a standing order in the event of the leadership being taken out, to local teams to fire at will any remaining ordnance and be as disruptive as possible.

 
So the UAE has decided to approve dozens of flight with thousands of passengers (and crews) with no guarantees for their ssfety and serious risk the reputation of their airlines. Sure.
Who knows, a drone hit the US consulate just down the road from DXB yesterday and French jets were shooting down drones over the UAE yesterday aswell.
Was mentioned yesterday that TLV opening for repatriation flights today and they are copping fire from Iran and Hezbollah.
Would be nice if there was an agreement in place but I’m very skeptical that’s the case
 
Seems incredibly unlikely that a detailed "gentleman's agreement" has been passed from today's Ayatollah, to local teams in the field to respect a specific air corridor for UAE commercial flights.
Assuming that Iran's radar systems are severely degraded as reported, how would Iran even confirm the position of the aircraft in-flight. Perhaps they are using Flightradar24?
 
MH17. They saw a plane
Except the BUK missile is a short range missile maybe 50km. Iran's missiles/drones are standoff weapons against ground targets. Im not suggesting Iran would shoot down aircraft in -flight. Rather it is just aiming at airports possibly according to GPS targeting data.

My issue with the ABC piece is that Iran would not be able to confirm the position of the aircraft to be able to honour an "agreement" such as the one it posted about. It likely no longer has radar.
 
Except the BUK missile is a short range missile maybe 50km. Iran's missiles/drones are standoff weapons against ground targets. Im not suggesting Iran would shoot down aircraft in -flight. Rather it is just aiming at airports possibly according to GPS targeting data.

My issue with the ABC piece is that Iran would not be able to confirm the position of the aircraft to be able to honour an "agreement" such as the one it posted about. It likely no longer has radar.
Agree. ‘Agreements’ don’t hold much water IMO… again looking at MH17.

Maybe military intel is that Iran’s capabilities have been quashed. But is that iron-clad? It is, until it isnt.
 
Iran’s capabilities have been quashed. But is that iron-clad? It is, until it isnt.
I dont think anyone is saying that iran offensive capabilities have been quashed, nor can that assessment be iron clad - the decisive point has not been reached as the US/Israel/others are still undertaking offensive operations. Importantly, the US/Israel/others have decided that they can now use Stand-in weapons because the surface to air defences have been sufficiently degraded.

I suspect the individual country's authorities have their own risk assessments and individuals wanting to get out would have their own sense of risk. Given the "foggy" situation though, I think individual passengers might be of the belief that they are better off taking the risk and getting out when the opportunity presents itself than staying put. However, the Gulf states are currently putting on a business as usual face with Emirs walking round in shopping centres as though everything is under control.
 
It appears it is better to be a Kiwi and stranded in the Middle East than an Aussie
 

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So many "experts" on this thread...
The ‘experts’ got it spectacularly wrong with MH17. Did we learn nothing from that?

It’s a war zone, with active military operations. With rogue operators involved.

People should be making their own assessments, with as wide-as-possible range of inputs. Some will want to err on the side of safety, others will be prepared to accept the risk.
 
So....

G'day from Dubai! Here with my wife and 13 month old. Landed here Friday morning and meant to fly to Maldives on Monday.

Saw the war started Saturday morning and was keeping an eye on it on X but wasn't concerned because we are in the UAE not Qatar or Israel. Mid morning we were at the beach and there was a huge thunder clap above us which turned out to be the first drone intercepted directly above our heads. Strikes were escalating during the day and then really kicked off at sunset. We were at the Ritz-Carlton in JBR and were getting intercepts directly above our resort more and more often. Came to a head around 7pm after sunset when there were multiple drone intercepts above the alfresco restaurant at the resort where we were eating and a firey ballistic missile falling into the ocean just off the coast. Everyone was rushed inside and then shortly after the restaurant was closed. This was the same time the Fairmont got hit. For next 2 days we were basically confined to our rooms. We got phone alerts and were smashed all that night, a fair bit the next day and sunset again on Sunday night. Managed to gain some courage and take the baby out on Monday morning to some play equipment in the resort grounds as he was getting stir crazy and needed to get out. Unfortunately for the first time in around 15 hours we had 3 intercepts directly over our heads at fairly low level, had to grab the baby and run for cover.

I've got photos and videos of drones being intercepted, missiles falling from the sky, F16's flying at low altitude with full air to air payloads. The intercepts are so close you can feel the percussion in your chest and taste/smell the remnants. It was insane, we've moved hotels and now there is a lot less strikes. We're all a bit shook up, any bassy noise is getting us jumpy and the bub is clearly concerned. Haven't really slept since Saturday night so if this post makes no sense, don't blame me.

Flights have been delayed and delayed and now we are just trying to get back to Perth, were booked on EK420 on the 7th but that has been cancelled. Still getting over 100 drones a day being intercepted so I can't see it getting back into swing of things for a while. We are registered on DFAT crisis but I don't think they know what to do with this many people.

Oh, and on the UAE is paying for hotels, that's incorrect reporting, Abu Dhabi is footing the bill, in Dubai people are just on fixed rates, so at the moment we are coping the hotel costs and as others have mentioned no insurance because of war. We are ok but others are clearly running into financial difficulties.

Fingers crossed we can get home sometime soon, getting out of UAE airspace is going to be the biggest sigh of relief
Thanks for the first hand report. Difficult to get real information.
 
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This is a difficult time with friends and family affected, flights disrupted, and ongoing uncertainty.

Please remember to be civil to each other.

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Confine commentary to Aircraft Diversions, flow on effects for Passengers and related issues.​
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If you think the gulf countries have a similar risk tolerance to health and safety as western countries just look at the migrant worker deaths, cash is king in the gulf.
 
It’s 80 flights out of about 1200, a little over 5%. Strictly for repatriation, not a resumption of normal services. The last thing the UAE wants is to replace stranded pax with new stranded pax.

 
Rumour? that Azerbaijan is putting its military on alert. it has a border with Iran to the north and a lot of commercial airlines between Europe and Asia overfly its airspace. QF has even diverted to Baku (its capital) on one or two occasions.
 
If the media is to be believed it does beg the question of why is an A380 flying at under half capacity when so many are stranded?
 
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