Middle East Airspace Diversions/Cancellations

[offshore171]

So the UAE has decided to approve dozens of flight with thousands of passengers (and crews) with no guarantees for their ssfety and serious risk the reputation of their airlines. Sure.

They work off intel. It's likely more to do with the US having eliminated the IRGC navy and taken out most/all of the SAM sites that are in range of the UAE.


Seems incredibly unlikely that a detailed "gentleman's agreement" has been passed from today's Ayatollah, to local teams in the field to respect a specific air corridor for UAE commercial flights.

Iran's military is now operating in "mosaic" mode. Basically a standing order in the event of the leadership being taken out, to local teams to fire at will any remaining ordnance and be as disruptive as possible.

https://www.intellinews.com/iran-activates-its-decentralised-mosaic-defence-doctrine-that-could-proves-to-be-a-major-headache-for-the-us-429245/?source=iran

 

[jase05]

So the UAE has decided to approve dozens of flight with thousands of passengers (and crews) with no guarantees for their ssfety and serious risk the reputation of their airlines. Sure.

Who knows, a drone hit the US consulate just down the road from DXB yesterday and French jets were shooting down drones over the UAE yesterday aswell.
Was mentioned yesterday that TLV opening for repatriation flights today and they are copping fire from Iran and Hezbollah.
Would be nice if there was an agreement in place but I’m very skeptical that’s the case

 

[Quickstatus]

Seems incredibly unlikely that a detailed "gentleman's agreement" has been passed from today's Ayatollah, to local teams in the field to respect a specific air corridor for UAE commercial flights.

Assuming that Iran's radar systems are severely degraded as reported, how would Iran even confirm the position of the aircraft in-flight. Perhaps they are using Flightradar24?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Assuming that Iran's radar systems are severely degraded as reported, how would Iran even confirm the position of the aircraft in-flight. Perhaps they are using Flightradar24?

Well it possibly wouldn’t Like MH17. They saw a plane, made an assumption it was military, but it was civilian.

 

[Quickstatus]

MH17. They saw a plane

Except the BUK missile is a short range missile maybe 50km. Iran's missiles/drones are standoff weapons against ground targets. Im not suggesting Iran would shoot down aircraft in -flight. Rather it is just aiming at airports possibly according to GPS targeting data.

My issue with the ABC piece is that Iran would not be able to confirm the position of the aircraft to be able to honour an "agreement" such as the one it posted about. It likely no longer has radar.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Except the BUK missile is a short range missile maybe 50km. Iran's missiles/drones are standoff weapons against ground targets. Im not suggesting Iran would shoot down aircraft in -flight. Rather it is just aiming at airports possibly according to GPS targeting data.

My issue with the ABC piece is that Iran would not be able to confirm the position of the aircraft to be able to honour an "agreement" such as the one it posted about. It likely no longer has radar.

Agree. ‘Agreements’ don’t hold much water IMO… again looking at MH17.

Maybe military intel is that Iran’s capabilities have been quashed. But is that iron-clad? It is, until it isnt.

 

[Quickstatus]

Iran’s capabilities have been quashed. But is that iron-clad? It is, until it isnt.

I dont think anyone is saying that iran offensive capabilities have been quashed, nor can that assessment be iron clad - the decisive point has not been reached as the US/Israel/others are still undertaking offensive operations. Importantly, the US/Israel/others have decided that they can now use Stand-in weapons because the surface to air defences have been sufficiently degraded.

I suspect the individual country's authorities have their own risk assessments and individuals wanting to get out would have their own sense of risk. Given the "foggy" situation though, I think individual passengers might be of the belief that they are better off taking the risk and getting out when the opportunity presents itself than staying put. However, the Gulf states are currently putting on a business as usual face with Emirs walking round in shopping centres as though everything is under control.

 

[LionKing]

It appears it is better to be a Kiwi and stranded in the Middle East than an Aussie

 

[kpc]

So many "experts" on this thread...

 

[Quickstatus]

So many "experts" on this thread...

AFF is an expert thread

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So many "experts" on this thread...

The ‘experts’ got it spectacularly wrong with MH17. Did we learn nothing from that?

It’s a war zone, with active military operations. With rogue operators involved.

People should be making their own assessments, with as wide-as-possible range of inputs. Some will want to err on the side of safety, others will be prepared to accept the risk.

 

[Bundy Bear]

AFF is an expert thread