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General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

lovetravellingoz

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In Melbourne there appears to be a trend of locking down postcodes that are predominately lower socioeconomic or migrant suburbs.

Now they are locking down housing commission flats.

Is there anything here to read into, or it is a simple coincidence? Could this have just as easily occurred in inner eastern suburbs, Toorak etc?
In addition to blackcats answer, based upon the recent genomic sequencing a lot of the recent cases, and in turn hotspots, are linked to the hotel security guards and where they were living. Reportedly many of the security guards were employed by firms subcontracting to security firms that actually won the contracts, and these firms employed mainly recent migrants.
 

drron

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Also the lower socio economic suburbs tend to have higher population densities therefore harder for distancing.
On top of that usually a higher incidence of disability which also is a factor with Covid.
 

Pushka

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In Melbourne there appears to be a trend of locking down postcodes that are predominately lower socioeconomic or migrant suburbs.

Now they are locking down housing commission flats.

Is there anything here to read into, or it is a simple coincidence? Could this have just as easily occurred in inner eastern suburbs, Toorak etc?
Echoing what blackcat20 said but it also somewhat mirrors the experience in Singapore that had a second outbreak in the multi dwelling blocks where poor immigrant workers live.

If you are looking for another angle other than disease control, there isn't one.

Post automatically merged:

In addition to blackcats answer, based upon the recent genomic sequencing a lot of the recent cases, and in turn hotspots, are linked to the hotel security guards and where they were living. Reportedly many of the security guards were employed by firms subcontracting to security firms that actually won the contracts, and these firms employed mainly recent migrants.
Is that the case? Goodness. I'm finding it interesting how it can all go back to a few "hotspot" locations. Is there any connection with Cedar meats and their workers?
 
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p--and--t

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In Melbourne there appears to be a trend of locking down postcodes that are predominately lower socioeconomic or migrant suburbs.

Now they are locking down housing commission flats.

Is there anything here to read into, or it is a simple coincidence? Could this have just as easily occurred in inner eastern suburbs, Toorak etc?

People in Toorak do not share lift lobbies, lifts, laundries, narrow passageways, air exhaust ducts, common playgrounds and tenant common rooms with thousands of others. They also have access to high levels of private health cover, more highly educated, disposable income for healthy food and sanitary/hygiene products, are not queuing outside centrelink or foodbank et al.

No conspiracy theories please.
Post automatically merged:

I'm finding it interesting how it can all go back to a few "hotspot" locations. Is there any connection with Cedar meats and their workers?
As already stated in media interviews by the CMO in response to similar questions - unrelated.
 

davidj

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Reportedly many of the security guards were employed by firms subcontracting to security firms that actually won the contracts, and these firms employed mainly recent migrants.
When the contracts were awarded I wonder how the detailed the scope or mandate was? Surely there was something along the lines of "all personnel must wear PPE while on duty etc". If so, contractor could be liable to govt, and also to workers due to negligence (hello Workcover).

More red flags re. 'security' at hotels:

 

lovetravellingoz

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Is that the case? Goodness. I'm finding it interesting how it can all go back to a few "hotspot" locations. Is there any connection with Cedar meats and their workers?
I have not read/heard any discussion with respect to Cedar Meats and other clusters cases. But the people in the know will know what links there are. I do remember though some discussion that allowed them to link the various Cedar Meat Cases together by genomic sequencing and that there was some commentary that the spread was in some cases by mutual social contacts and not just in the workplace.

The H&M cluster was changed to the larger northern Melbourne cluster. I would guess that genomic sequencing was part of the process in doing this.


With genomic sequencing they are pretty much able to link any case with any other case when there is a link. ie a bit like DNA. The virus keeps having tiny changes (mutations) and so this allows them link it back to particular clusters/people, and then beyond that to country of origin. This also includes it coming through other countries. ie China to Europe to USA to Oz. China to Oz.

Clusters will share common mutations. Equally not having certain common mutations allows them to rule out connections between people. For example with an infected health worker, did they catch it from a patient or a family member/friend? Genomonic sequencing can help them to find out.

Genomic sequencing can link two separate clusters where say contact tracing interviews may have failed for various reasons.

There are of course gaps as not everyone who has been infected has been tested.
 

lovetravellingoz

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When the contracts were awarded I wonder how the detailed the scope or mandate was? Surely there was something along the lines of "all personnel must wear PPE while on duty etc". If so, contractor could be liable to govt, and also to workers due to negligence (hello Workcover).

More red flags re. 'security' at hotels:


Ok. Pure speculation on my part and purely a hypothetical.....

Crisis's bring out the best and worst in people. Mainly the best. But just as we see in the bushfires there are also those that exhibit the worst.

Problem Number One My speculation is that the Vic Gov wanted to do the right thing and to get things up and running quickly, and in doing so many normal contracting protocols will not have been followed due to this. All well and good as speed to act is important with the virus, but these should have been improved upon once time allowed. I suspect this was not done.

Problem Number Two, and the likely bigger problem is that greed kicked in and despite the obvious clear and obvious danger that some put the opportunity to make a quick and easy buck before community need and ethical business practices including the need to ensure a safe workplace. So they exploited what were probably easy contracts, subcontracted out to other firms that were not capable but would do the work on the cheap.

Those subcontractors also wanted a quick buck and so hired people who they new would be prepared to work for a low rate and in substandard conditions and to turn a blind eye to things.

Problem Number Three was that at least some of these workers then compounded things by not just putting up with poor conditions, but by not maintaining physical distancing with each other as well as people quarantine. Now yes these workers were exploited no doubt, but equally they were of an age where they should have had a pretty good idea of what was ok, or not, with Covid19 even if yes they were not adequately trained in the use of PPE which even health professional can struggle with.

Problem Number Four was seemingly the Vic Government not having either staff, or an independent contractor, monitory such a critical. So it was not until the proverbial **** hit the fan in positive test results starting to show up that it was realised that a monumental stuff up had occurred. Genomic sequencing which lags test results now evidently showing that the stuff up is even bigger than first thought. Quite probably given the spread a number of the guards with symptoms were not presenting for testing, and indeed one interview of a guard indicated that he was instructed to not get tested.


Now all the above is just myself joining the dots and is pure speculation on my part.
 
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Pushka

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Likely to be the case, time will tell.

Pink bats comes to mind when looking at this situation.
There are so many instances where both tax payer and consumer ripoff comes to mind. Pink bats caused deaths. Unforgivable. VET schemes ripped off pretty much everyone involved except the directors. I know personally of one such group and I wondered how they made the directors so wealthy. Having then worked with them and saw how they wanted to change our business, flicked the on switch. We chose to split once we learnt their tactics. Their company ended up in the media but as usual, the main perpetrators had exited the structure by then.
 

Pushka

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Yes those education schemes were rorted on a major and disgraceful scale.

The NDIS is the new hunting ground for the rorters.
Absolutely. In fact husband and I discussed whether the people we knew from VET had actually moved into that sector but hope they have been banished from being directors.
 

lovetravellingoz

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One of the things that my idle mind often question is how long those people were in hospital and whether that are or are not related to what is happening this month. e.g. was either of them diagnosed and/or admitted to hospital several weeks ago or just recently.
They rarely release many details now on deaths, but from what I have read deaths normally only occur after several weeks.

So the recent cases would be more influencing possible deaths in two or more weeks. (Which is why for example deaths in Texas may start to jump in a week or so, and their ICU's are already filling up now after the large increase in cases there in recent weeks.)
 
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drron

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They rarely release many details now on deaths, but from what I have read deaths normally only occur after several weeks.

So the recent cases would be more influencing possible deaths in two or more weeks. (Which is why for example deaths in Texas may start to jump in a week or so, and their ICU's are already filling up now after the large increase in cases there in recent weeks.)
Not completely the whole story re Texas.The articles on ICUs in texas was that Houston had reached 100% capacity of their first line ICU beds.They have nearly 900 more that can be online virtually immediately.
And of the currently full beds 43% are Covid patients.Now that is a lot but far frpom absolute capacity.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Not completely the whole story re Texas.The articles on ICUs in texas was that Houston had reached 100% capacity of their first line ICU beds.They have nearly 900 more that can be online virtually immediately.
And of the currently full beds 43% are Covid patients.Now that is a lot but far frpom absolute capacity.
If I am reading that correctly that is now 568 ICU patients with Covid 19.
Population of Texas = 30 million.

By comparison the population of Australia is 25.5. million and current ICU Covid 19 patients is currently 5.

The graph below shows ICU is trending up quite steeply. Not long ago the figure was 200 odd. The commentary also indicates that other ICU beds are to be managed by transferring existing non-Covid 19 ICU patients to Medical/Surgery beds and other procedures will be delayed in order to make room for the Covid 19 surge.

So that to me that means Texas ICU is filling up with Covid19 patients. They certainly are not emptying out of Covid 19 patients, nor are they remaining level.
1594039661885.png
 

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Princess Fiona

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Not completely the whole story re Texas.The articles on ICUs in texas was that Houston had reached 100% capacity of their first line ICU beds.They have nearly 900 more that can be online virtually immediately.
And of the currently full beds 43% are Covid patients.Now that is a lot but far frpom absolute capacity.
TMC are interesting to say the least. Their reporting seems to have changed course mid-way. They have a vested interest to keep elective surgery going.
A lot of politics going on there no doubt but the posts from the Emergency Physicians on the ground is that it is rapidly spiraling.
9FA279DD-8F26-434A-8418-33732C609DBE.jpeg
 

drron

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However if you read all of the TMC link you will find in the Greater Houston area there are just over 1300 primary ICU beds.they were at 100% occupancy so 43% of that number comes out to 568 beds with Covid patients.Exacly as I said.
As to changing the reporting originally they were reporting the percentage of the primary ICU beds occupied.The reporting of that became more and more political with the sensationalism of the reporting that implied Houston was about to be overwhelmed so they then started posting the numbers of back up ICU beds.

Also take it into context with the USA situation.In the last week to 5/7/20 there were 1538 new cases diagnosed-the largest rise they have had.But the peak in NYC (pop-7.3 million) was over 5000 per day.Greater Houston population is 2.4 million. Their weekly numbers of new cases per week by million population is still lower than NYC's new cases per day per million population at it's peak.
Yes the situation is bad,very bad but not the absolute disaster that the US media would have you believe.
 

lovetravellingoz

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However if you read all of the TMC link you will find in the Greater Houston area there are just over 1300 primary ICU beds.they were at 100% occupancy so 43% of that number comes out to 568 beds with Covid patients.Exacly as I said.
As to changing the reporting originally they were reporting the percentage of the primary ICU beds occupied.The reporting of that became more and more political with the sensationalism of the reporting that implied Houston was about to be overwhelmed so they then started posting the numbers of back up ICU beds.

Also take it into context with the USA situation.In the last week to 5/7/20 there were 1538 new cases diagnosed-the largest rise they have had.But the peak in NYC (pop-7.3 million) was over 5000 per day.Greater Houston population is 2.4 million. Their weekly numbers of new cases per week by million population is still lower than NYC's new cases per day per million population at it's peak.
Yes the situation is bad,very bad but not the absolute disaster that the US media would have you believe.
You are over complicating things. I stated ICU beds are filling up in Texas from Covid 19 and they are.

Increasing the number of beds and and moving non-Covid19 patients out of ICU does not change the fact that the number of patients with Covid 19 in ICU beds in Texas is increasing.

The data is very clear on this. Indeed the graph shows that it is rapidly increasing. The rest of the USA is irrelevant to this point. And being less bad than NYC at their worst should not be a comfort to anyone as NYC was a horrific situation.

Texas now has a very serious and increasingly serious problem.
 

drron

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And the predominant age group being infected and showing up as new cases is in the USA 18-29 age group.Not nearly as likely to end up in ICU or die.That is consistent with the observation I made before that despite rapidly increasing case numbers the death rate was lagging well behind.
In Australia it is the 20-29 age group who now have the highest number of cases.

and simiarly in Australia we have not seen a rapid rise in hospitalisations,ICU use and deaths as we were seeing initially with similiar number of cases in our hotspot.Victoria currently with 31 in hospital and 5 in ICU with NSW,NT and QLD having just 1 in hospital each.No ICU beds with Covid patients outside Victoria.
 

p--and--t

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The mayor from Austin (Texas) is live on the ABC now.

He says they have about 10 days (optimistically 14 days) capacity left. They are urgently trying to set up another emergency field hospital before they are overrun.

The state governor barred them until recently from implementing and rules/processes to try and limit the spread of the virus (influence from the White House).

Now the restraints are off, they have required masks in public and implemented a number of restrictions and hope to turn the tide over the next 2-4 weeks.
 

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