General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

HappyFlyerFamily

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<snip>


Interested to know what people think this means re vaccine effectiveness in the context of very high vaccinations in community (NSW)
Very interesting there are several interpretations out there…


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Perhaps that none of the % add to 100%.....

On the basis that none add to 100%, it shows some effectiveness of vaccines from serious illness or death. (eg 70.9% cases goes to 52.8% ICU and 64.7% death.)
 
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No - it is not adding to 100% because some are not recorded as either Vax or unvaxxed. But not where I’m heading with this

hint: % vaccinated in community vs % vaccinated in hospital/ICU/deaths. But it’s deeper than that

It has something to do with this graphic and how that graphic is potentially misleading
I like this graphic
 
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Pushka

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No - it is not adding to 100% because some are not recorded as either Vax or unvaxxed. But not where I’m heading with this

hint: % vaccinated in community vs % vaccinated in hospital/ICU/deaths. But it’s deeper than that

It has something to do with this graphic and how that graphic is potentially misleading
Curious to see why as it's just a guide but it would stop the SA Health Facebook numpties from saying the vaccine doesn't work because there are more people in hospital who are vaccinated than are not vaccinated. Every single day they ask. It's also like they expect the vaccine to cure cancer, heart issues, old age, etc etc. so no one who is vaccinated will die.
 

Lynda2475

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Interested to know what people think this means re vaccine effectiveness in the context of very high vaccinations in community (NSW)
Very interesting there are several interpretations out there

That particular graphic doesn't contain all the relevant information as supplied in the NSW Weekly Surveillance Reports and is misleading.

Yes breakthrough cases (double dosed people) account for a larger percentage of hospitalizations than unvaccinated people, but that is because there are very few unvaccinated people.

However the percentage of hospitalizations within the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated cohort is significantly higher than the percentage of the double dosed and boosted cohort admissions by a long way.

Also fails to account for the underlying conditions / comorbidities of the vaccinated people with adverse health outcomes, and the fact that many are hospitalised or died with covid but not due to covid. Those numbers include drug over doses and car crash victims where covid wasn't a factor at all, not to mention those with terminal cancer, chronic conditions like cystic fibrosis.

Anti-vaxers will always look for justification for their unscientific position that vaccines don't work. But the real facts support that vaccines are working to keep overwhelming majority of people who contract covid out of hospital and alive.
 

Pushka

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And lacking in some very important information.
Hint2: note in the graphic there are only 2 groups - vaxxed and not vaxxed. Have a think about how that is or could be misleading and same for the Covid live data
Sure but it's a graphic representation for confused Joe Public and not a scientific one. It serves its purpose for that population and its intent has nothing to do with scientific examination. Classic case of KISS.
 
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It serves its purpose
Depends on whose purpose it is trying to serve


Also fails to account
Partly
What is the usual way population is divided other than Sex? ---Age.
Basically the point is it is important to compare cohorts rather than assume the population is homogenous

Using the latest NSW covid surveillance report for the period of 28Nov21 to 8Jan22

Hospitalisation % according the Vaccination cohort
(a) The hospitalisation %:
- 2Jab positives = 1% of the total Covid+ who were 2Jab
- 0Jab positives = 9% of the total Covid+ who were 0Jab

The ICU %:
- 2jab 0.1%
- 0Jab 1.5%

The death %:
- 2Jab 0.025%
- 0Jab 0.6%

So basically what the report says is that even if 0Jab, if you become Covid+ there is a 6/1000 chance of dying overall but which is 24 times more than if 2Jab.

Now to some people 6/1000 is a small number but 24x is a big number. How should it be reported?
The graphic earlier shows the big and small circle with dots suggesting that 50% of the people in the Unvaxxed group are hospitalised (count the dots). This is patently untrue. The rate being 9%. Of the 9 dots you can round up to 1 dot (actually 0.8 dots) for the hospitalisation rate for the unvaxxed.

On the other hand the big circle suggests 7% (9/115) dots) of the vaccinated will be hospitalised when in fact it is 1%. About 2 dots in total.
The graphic should have hospitalisation dots as 1 for unvaxxed and 2 for vaxxed.

(Now some of the "under investigation" cohort where the number of Jabs are unknown would be in the 0, 1, 2jab cohort so are not included)

Then you add in age which is how you would categorise a population
Lets take the 70-90+ age group and same period 26Nov21-8Jan22 and look at severe outcome = Table 6 (ICU and or death)

Overall total Covid+ in 70-90 age group = 11104 (whether hospitalised or not)
- 2Jab = 10991 = 4.1% of the entire 2Jab Covid+ cohort of NSW
- 0Jab = 113 = 0.3% of the entire 0Jab Covid+ cohort of NSW

Importantly of the total of 301660 cases of Covid+ in NSW 3.7% are in the 70-90 age group
The Severe outcome rate of the 2Jab 70-90 age group is 0.05% of the entire NSW cohort who is covid+
The Severe outcome rate of the 0Jab 70-90 age group is 0.008% of the entire NSW cohort who is covid+

However when comparing the % of severe outcome ICU/deaths between vax groups within the 70-90 age group:
- 2Jab = 1.3%
- 0Jab = 21% = 16x that of 2jab

Now go back to see the Covidlive picture I posted above.

Point is that just looking at a Media created metric does not tell the full picture and potentially misleading.

The Big picture:
1)The ICU rate compared to overall covid+ is very small regardless of Vax status
2) Unvax status = 16-24x higher chance of bad outcome in in the elderly despite what a superficial reading of Covidlive suggests
3) The hospitalisation rate is a lot smaller for both Vaxxed and Unvaxxed group than what the 2 circle graphic suggests. Hospitalisation circle = 1 dot in unvaxxed circle and 2 dots in vaxxed circle rather than 9 for both

I'll let you work out similar for the other age groups.
 
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CaptainCurtis

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I have just admitted the second patient with the Guillain-Barre syndrome due to the Pfizer jab.This time a booster dose.
I hope s/he makes a quick recovery! I'd be interested to know if your hospital mandates reporting to TGA, or if it's left to the patient to report?
 
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drron

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I hope s/he makes a quick recovery! I'd be interested to know if your hospital mandates reporting to TGA, or if it's left to the patient to report?
I always report suspected adverse reactions to our ATAGI rep. It is mandated but sometimes they take a bit of convincing.
The first patient I had underwent plasma exchange therapy and made a quick and near complete recovery.
 

Lynda2475

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I've been contacted to do post vaccination reports for all 3 doses, I assume this is the case in all jurisdictions and would expect the patient to do so in addition to the treating doctor.
 

Pushka

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An article in the NYTimes about the development of Nasal Vaccines which, apparently, may be more efficacious in every case. As a booster anyway.

Well that's how they sorted it out on Contagion so why not!
 

Lynda2475

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Not dissimilar to the Aussie research project testing a nasal spray of blood thinners to stop the virus taking hold, not a vaccine per se, but a prophylactic, couple of pumps up each nostril whenever mixing in an enclosed space. Seems simple.
 

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