I thought I'd seen a subsquent article debunking this theory. But in any event, in China, IME lots of men smoke a lot. It's the main place in the world we're I've been to meetings and they've had a packet of cigarettes on the table for each participant, and where you can still smell smoke wafting through the corridors of many of the non smoking floors of hotels (particularly outside of BJ & SH) .Males seem to be affected to a greater extent than females. More smoking and other illnesses in Men. And Women get more autoimmune problems - in other words a more vigorous immune system than men which may be (speculatively) beneficial
I think that’s still the case that males seem over represented. And smoking. But try tell that to a smoker. The issue with women/people having autoimmune issues is that when they are treated then immunity is lowered. And I did read somewhere that the female factor was either hormonal or chromosomal protection.I overlooked one detail in this lancet article which I posted earlier
Males seem to be affected to a greater extent than females. More smoking and other illnesses in Men. And Women get more autoimmune problems - in other words a more vigorous immune system than men which may be (speculatively) beneficial
Covid-19 might be the worst strain of the ManFlu!!
I think WHO has answered my question....So does that mean we should see the "suspected" figure to drop in concert with the policy change?
This really needs to be highlighted because right now the world looks at things at face value and/or what the media throws into the headlines. The finer details escapes them. Can you see the media saying “don’t worry about the numbers, they are reducing“ if that’s what is shown to be the case. That stuff doesn’t sell papers nor provide clicks.I think WHO has answered my question....
How to interpret the 15,152 surge in COVID-19 new cases of February 12
China reported 15,152 new cases for February 12, in an apparent 600% surge over the preceding day. However, this spike does not represent a change in the trend.
In fact, 13,332 of these new cases are clinically (rather than laboratory) confirmed cases, reported for the first time as an effect of a change in how cases are diagnosed and reported in Hubei province starting on February 12.
Of the 15,152 new cases reported, only 1,820 are new laboratory confirmed cases (1,508 in Hubei province and 312 elsewhere in China).
These 1,820 new laboratory confirmed cases actually represent a decline of 26% over the preceding day (when 2,467 cases, all laboratory confirmed, were reported).
Change in how cases are diagnosed and reported
Starting on February 12, in the Hubei province only, a trained medical professional can now classify a suspected case of COVID-19 as a clinically confirmed case on the basis of chest imaging, rather than having to have a laboratory confirmation.
This allows clinicians to move and report cases more quickly - not having to wait for lab confirmation - ensuring that people get adequate care more quickly and also allows for public health responses - such as contact-tracing - to be initiated.
Redistribution of the surge in new cases
Most of these 13,332 clinically confirmed cases relate to a period going back days and weeks, but were all retrospectively reported as cases on a single day, but they need to be redistributed over the entire preceding period.
WHO is currently working with Chinese health officials to see exactly how those numbers are spread out across those days and weeks.
Worldometer is awaiting the result of this analysis before making adjustments to the historical graphs and tables.
In the rest of the world, laboratory confirmation for reporting is still required, and WHO will continue to track both laboratory and clinically confirmed cases in Hubei province.
Caution when looking at numbers
Who warned, in its February 13 press conference, that we need to be cautious when drawing conclusions from daily reported numbers and when interpreting any extremes, be in the incubation period (a study had reported a range of up to 24 days), be it in daily numbers.
We must take all numbers into account, look at numbers seriously, but we must also try to always interpret what those numbers mean and not react directly to the number itself without proper context.
Shame the media can’t pick up on the “good news” but bad news sells better.Some more reportage on the jump in China case numbers
TIME - China Reported a Huge Increase in New COVID-19 Cases. Here’s Why It’s Actually a Step in the Right Direction
...because we, the punters, are hard wired to respond to bad news (and narky feedback).Shame the media can’t pick up on the “good news” but bad news sells better.
5.090 new cases and 121 new deaths - not exactly good news...China reports 5,090 new coronavirus cases in mainland
SHANGHAI, Feb 14 (Reuters) - China saw 5,090 new coronavirus cases in the mainland on Feb. 13, with 121 new deaths, the National Health Commission said on Friday.
Hubei province, which is at the epicentre of the outbreak, earlier reported 4,823 new cases with 116 deaths.
The change in reporting standards in Hubei caused a large increase in the number of cases reported in the data release on Thursday.The aim [of changing the reporting categories] is to let patients be diagnosed early and treated early, to standardise treatment, and to raise the effectiveness of treatment….At present, we have not set this category of clinically diagnosed cases for other provinces.