Class Availability Mystery

[JohnK]

I had been looking at booking BA WT+ for BKK-SYD on 23 December and all was OK until I went to book it yesterday morning. No availability. So I was resigned to the fact that I will have to leave on 24 December and as this had W9 T9 availability I was going to wait a few days.

I am browsing the BA site again last night and notice that there is again a WT+ seat available but at the higher price which meant that the availability now was W1 T0. I was in 2 minds to book it right away but thought I would wait. I was pricing different dates, browsing class availability, returning to price the date I wanted again, browsing class availability. Anyway this went on for an hour or so.

I had a break and then started browsing class availability again and notice that all of a sudden it was now W1 T1. So I quickly get on to the BA website and book 23 December at the lower price. After my booking vailability returned to W0 T0 and has remained that way since.

It is all a mystery how availability works. Did my searching for airfares last night influence the T1 all of a sudden becoming available? Or do they occassionally just release an extra seat, possibly oversold, and play around with the availability until someone purchases it? How can one explain availability going from W0 T0 to W1 T0 and then to W1 T1!

 

[serfty]

Yield Management Voodoo!

I am of a mind that some YM functions are automatic/computerised - with regular sweeps by software that use algorithms to analyse current circumstance and history making defined adjustments as long as the situation is within parameters considered normal. Anything falling outside those parameters gets referred for manual processing.

In your case, the flight may already be back to W1 T1.

On Tuesday morning I booked a QF flight later that afternoon for an associate , it was showing J0 D0 Y1 B1 H1 K1 M1 R1 L1 V1 S1 N0 Q0 O0 X0 E0 before booking and all 0's after.

i.e. Qantas were looking for almost any revenue booking for that 'last' seat.

 

[moa999]

The mysteries of yield management
- might be a cancellation, might be software saying you are below target x days out, might be the sunspots

I would definitely say though that searching for fares does not cause seats to be released.

 

[JohnK]

In your case, the flight may already be back to W1 T1.

It is still W0 T0. But it is interesting that the day before which has been sold out for many weeks is now showing T availability. I guess cancellations could be the real reason and the airline prepared to accept the lower class airfare.

I will just consider myself lucky that I have saved around $180 or an extra nights accommodation and I can be home before Christmas rather than travelling on Christmas morning.

I would definitely say though that searching for fares does not cause seats to be released.

I was just clutching at straws and looking for totally illogical explanations.

 

[oz_mark]

Having seen these goings on, it is pretty much impossible to double guess the YM gods. There is all sorts of voodoo going on with that.

 

[markis10]

You did well to book last night given the rise in Fuel taxes effective today on BA Aussies face higher airfares | NEWS.com.au

 

[chrisb]

On Tuesday morning I booked a QF flight later that afternoon for an associate , it was showing J0 D0 Y1 B1 H1 K1 M1 R1 L1 V1 S1 N0 Q0 O0 X0 E0 before booking and all 0's after.
i.e. Qantas were looking for almost any revenue booking for that 'last' seat.

Couldn't that be caused by someone cancelling, upgrading or changing an S booking, thus releasing an S seat, which also translates to all higher booking classes being available?

Chrisb.

 

[serfty]

No reason why not; again this process appeared to be automatic.

I have redeemed an award flight and seen Q, N, O availability each decrease by one along with X.

 

[oz_mark]

No reason why not; again this process appeared to be automatic.

I have redeemed an award flight and seen Q, N, O availability each decrease by one along with X.

It would make sense that there are a set of automated rules on this. Otherwise they would need an army to be constalty reviewing what was going on.

 

[simongr]

The rules probably are automated so that once a seat is "sold" inventory changes - hence what serfty is seeing. However there would probably be periodic reviews by humans based on another set of rules based on automated reports of the current loads etc.

 

[JohnK]

You did well to book last night given the rise in Fuel taxes effective today on BA

Finally a stroke of luck! No wonder my subconscious was pushing me to book, it must have known what was about to happen.

The surcharge for long-haul flights to destinations including Australia will rise from $70.42 to $272.30 for a return fare.

Does that sound right? A $200+ increase in fuel surcharges? And it would really hurt if the base airfare was adjusted instead of the fuel surcharge....

 

[Travel Guru]

It's now sitting at W5 T4 on 23 Dec BKK-SYD, so must have had a cancellation.

TG

 

[Keith009]

Does that sound right? A $200+ increase in fuel surcharges? And it would really hurt if the base airfare was adjusted instead of the fuel surcharge....

Ouch... but for A$100 increase one way it doesn't really sound surprising as they probably worked it out in pounds.

 

[JohnK]

It's now sitting at W5 T4 on 23 Dec BKK-SYD, so must have had a cancellation.

There has been 5 cancellations! That is ridiculous.

I almost had to change plans costing me more money because people hold on to seats they are not likely to use. Great!

 

[serfty]

Maybe the increase in Fuel Fines spooked some people who had unticketed reservations and they cast their bookings adrift. :idea:

 

[JohnK]

The taxes when I booked were 8,090 baht.

The taxes quoted if booking now are 9,450 baht or an increase of 1,360 baht (~A$48.50) for a return ticket.

 

[Travel Guru]

Maybe the increase in Fuel Fines spooked some people who had unticketed reservations and they cast their bookings adrift. :idea:

From experience, agents tend to hold onto and forget alot of booking until the airlines auto cancels them at some point.

TG

 

[serfty]

While not a $200 increase, 'tis still around 17% - Quite significant IMHO.

According to ITA, the fuel fine (BA YQ surcharge) on BA for a BKK-SYD flight on 23rd Dec is now AUD91.

Fare construction (sometimes useful to travel agents):
      	BKK BA SYD 507.67VHSSOWTH NUC 507.67 END ROE 32.5010 FARE THB 16500 XT 700TS 635WY 2895YQ

JohnK, could you plug your BA Amadeus reference into the LAN e-ticket print facility and check out the YQ for that booking and post it? It should be most edifying.

 

[JohnK]

YQ 4,550.00 THB
YQ 280.00 THB
TS 700.00 THB
WY 1,400.00 THB
AU 1,160.00 THB

The two fuel surcharges are ~A$170 using 28 baht exchange rate!

 

[jpk]

I would definitely say though that searching for fares does not cause seats to be released.

Not automatically no, but they would have software analysing all searches and looking at trends, and this would dictate future yield management decisions (along with general schedule/route etc changes).