Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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lovetravellingoz said:
But noting that F1 will be say April, and AO late Jan and in theory by NYE will will probably have everyone vaccinated that wants to be or can be vaccinated (ie at or above the likely vaccination targe). The unknown being the under 12s, though both Moderna and Pfizer look to be progressing on that it may be that both of those could proceed with crowds attending.

The question by then might be can you only attend a mass event if you are fully vaccinated? And the same for say international travel.
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The problem with the AO is that the players will not travel to Australia this time around if they have to do 14 days quarantine.
 
SydneySwan said:
The problem with the AO is that the players will not travel to Australia this time around if they have to do 14 days quarantine.
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Which is why that model will not be used in 2022.

What they are currently working on is that all players and their supports fly in and enter a "14 day bubble" (group quarantine if you will) complete with frequent testing, where they are free to train and play in the lead up tournaments that they need to to play at the required level for the AO. It means no Hotel Room type HQ.

No doubt too all players and supports as well, as any other like journalists, to enter Australia will need to be fully vaccinated.

This means that they do not have to fly in early, though yes means that they cannot fly in late though they would not generally do that anyway.

Players do not want to do HQ as it means that they can play and prepare properly.


PS. This is a little like what is being done in Japan for the Olympics, but on a much smaller and simpler scale.
 
lovetravellingoz said:
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The alarming part there is a jump in the number of infectious in the community, as that number was already high yesterday :(
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It seems like the surveillance testing is doing its job. Maybe finding a lot of asymptomatic cases. The concern is as they mop up one IGA the problem has already moved to another.
 
bcworld said:
It seems like the surveillance testing is doing its job. Maybe finding a lot of asymptomatic cases.
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Maybe.

1626912479272.png

All that asymptomatic testing is a two edged sword, as it also greatly delays the results from many symptomatic people that have gone and gotten tested, and that lag has now built into many days.

So it may also be that it is slowing down the symptomatic results from others for many days, and well past the 36 hour replication period that will have already had others infecting others from amongst the close contacts that are not isolating.
 
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Today's new exposure sites in Victoria:

At least the exposure date was back on the 17th.

If a shopper they took their time, including it seems a "coffee"..
1626912073118.png


Throughout this outbreak "coffee" venues keep popping up. One wonders if part of the problem is people getting their "essential coffee" and also perhaps chatting with others.
 
lovetravellingoz said:
View attachment 253715

The alarming part there is a jump in the number of infectious in the community, as that number was already high yesterday :(
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And it’s becoming obvious that
lovetravellingoz said:
Maybe.

View attachment 253717

All that asymptomatic testing is a two edged sword, as it also greatly delays the results from many symptomatic people that have gone and gotten tested, and that lag has now built into many days.

So it may also be that it is slowing down the symptomatic results from others for many days, and well past the 36 hour replication period that will have already had others infecting others from amongst the close contacts that are not isolating.
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NSW Health are holding up so far.
The main issue is with one of the private pathology firms that is also doing symptomatic and surveillance testing. The positive test results are being notified from that lab to NSW Health in a timely fashion. Telling people they are negative maybe not so timely (multiple days later)
 
lovetravellingoz said:
It also means that case numbers will keep appearing till we get past the 14 day period from the last case in the wild.
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Seven of our simulations using data through yesterday show that happening by mid-October... seven out of 10,000.

By the only metrics that really count -- likelihood of infectious people coming in contact with others, and likelihood that not all positive cases are being detected "in time" if at all -- the Sydney situation is as bad as it's been, and that after three weeks of lockdown and several days at the stricter settings.

So how to exit the lockdown? Zero probably isn't going to happen, but how do you get past the mindset that "one case was enough to get us into this mess in the first place"?
 
lovetravellingoz said:
Today's new exposure sites in Victoria:

At least the exposure date was back on the 17th.

If a shopper they took their time, including it seems a "coffee"..
View attachment 253716


Throughout this outbreak "coffee" venues keep popping up. One wonders if part of the problem is people getting their "essential coffee" and also perhaps chatting with others.
Click to expand...


When I go for my morning walk there are always big crowd's of people outside coffee shops waiting for their order or just having received their order talking to who ever is nearby

Once you have a coffee in your hand you can pull your mask down to drink it

I guess people are using the front of coffee shops as a "legal" way to catch up.
 
While cases are trending up in Victoria, infectious in the community cases are trending down.

Not so far too that in Victoria (and I do not know yet about the two reported today) that the days that they are "in the wild" now also tends to be very limited, as opposed to say 60s man at the start who created several transmission chains, that then also created other clusters all before 60s man was known to bea case.

1626913882668.png
 
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Eastwick20 said:
When I go for my morning walk there are always big crowd's of people outside coffee shops waiting for their order or just having received their order talking to who ever is nearby

Once you have a coffee in your hand you can pull your mask down to drink it

I guess people are using the front of coffee shops as a "legal" way to catch up.
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Yea but this happens everywhere in a lockdown not just Sydney…. I just don’t think it could be a massive contributor to cases
 
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Eastwick20 said:
When I go for my morning walk there are always big crowd's of people outside coffee shops waiting for their order or just having received their order talking to who ever is nearby

Once you have a coffee in your hand you can pull your mask down to drink it

I guess people are using the front of coffee shops as a "legal" way to catch up.
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And don't forget the playgrounds, they are a hub for 'catchups'.

They were even closed, taped off for a while in Melb's big lockdown, for many weeks actually.

I don't recall hearing any covid spread from a playground (some masks there are the nose & chin models) but with Delta, you just never know.
 
So we are talking about no consumption outside cafes and no playgrounds, despite supermarkets and fast food being open and kindergarten/child care still open too in Vic.

Doesn't make much sense. But also shows how difficult/impossible this may be to contain
 
lovetravellingoz said:
Maybe.

View attachment 253717

All that asymptomatic testing is a two edged sword, as it also greatly delays the results from many symptomatic people that have gone and gotten tested, and that lag has now built into many days.

So it may also be that it is slowing down the symptomatic results from others for many days, and well past the 36 hour replication period that will have already had others infecting others from amongst the close contacts that are not isolating.
Click to expand...
Princess Fiona said:
And it’s becoming obvious that

NSW Health are holding up so far.
The main issue is with one of the private pathology firms that is also doing symptomatic and surveillance testing. The positive test results are being notified from that lab to NSW Health in a timely fashion. Telling people they are negative maybe not so timely (multiple days later)
Click to expand...
If they kept the Saturday rule (3 LGA health emergency) they would have had less asymptomatic testing. Even if modified to Fairfield health emergency would have been less asymptomatic testing....bygones.
 
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