Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[lovetravellingoz]

exactly right, it's a certain culture that have been involved in pretty much all the Melbourne outbreaks.

Are we jumping to conclusions here?

From what has been reported it seems to be quite different in this outbreak. ie Small household size, Spread mainly to direct household contacts, office based workplaces and at business interactions.


The concern is now that some of the exposure sites include those with large random public interactions.

Caveat; I am yet to see commentary on the latest 11 cases.

 

[dajop]

Correct, but a small pocket of one city was locked down, not the ENTIRE state or Metro area, which if the mail is accurate, will be happening again to Victoria today.

Yes as it had the distinct advantage of having only 3 roads into/out of the area and one ferry service. Very easy to restrict movement in and out of that area.

 

[bcworld]

Correct, but a small pocket of one city was locked down, not the ENTIRE state or Metro area, which if the mail is accurate, will be happening again to Victoria today.

The number of outbreaks that have been dealt with is very small...I don't think you can draw any valid statistical conclusions about what might happen in the next outbreak. One day NSW could find itself dealing with a situation that differs from the limited number it has had to manage so far.

 

[Lynda2475]

having only 3 roads into/out of the area and one ferry service. Very easy to restrict movement in and out of that area.

There are 3 main roads which were patrolled , but in fact many other smaller ones on the southern and western boarder of the NB LGA. And there two main ferry routes - Manly (Southern end of NB goes to the city) and Palm beach (Northern end of NB heading north of Sydney).

 

[henrus]

With the current Melbourne Cluster I must have missed the reports on it being being spread through family gatherings. So far I had understood it was mainly household contacts (yes family, but not gatherings)

Yeh, I agree the reports haven't been very clear.

Quoting the front page of the Guardian on the 25th (2 days ago):

"The four positive cases belong to the same family, spread across two households, in the Whittlesea local government area"

There must have been some gathering/connection between those two households (which happened to be the same family).

 

[jakeseven7]

Why is Vic always so vulnerable to these outbreaks. Nobody else seems to cop the same treatment!

Umm talk to any Northern Beaches resident in Sydney.... our family Xmas was ruined by that outbreak and subseqent lockdown.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

There must have been some gathering/connection between those two households (which happened to be the same family).

Perhaps just my terminology then. I would just see that as some small households having interactions with a few other family members.



The nothern suburbs outbreak was fuelled in part by a number of separate large families having large gatherings with other large families. Sometimes in breach of the then rules.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Vic Presser.

10,000 primary or secondary contacts now identified..

Within 24 are locking first, second and third ring cases.

Transmission is usually about 5 days. In this outbreak some transmissions have occurred in only in just over a day. ie a person gets infected and then infects another in just over a day.


7 day lockdown confirmed from 11.59 tonight. 5 reasons to leave home.

Getting vaccinated being one of the 5.

 

[henrus]

Perhaps just my terminology then. I would just see that as some small households having interactions with a few other family members.

Fair enough, in Queensland, our COVID restrictions define meeting anyone out in public (park etc but not in a business) or inside someone's home is considered a gathering.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Fair enough, in Queensland, our COVID restrictions define meeting anyone out in public (park etc but not in a business) or inside someone's home is considered a gathering.

In the northern suburbs outbreak there were gatherings indoors with typical family interactions. ie hugging being very close etc. Families were sometimes over 10 in size, meeting with other like families.

Post automatically merged: May 27, 2021

Vic Presser

Vaccinations to be expanded.

40-49 for Pfizer for anyone now.

 

[Lynda2475]

the number of outbreaks that have been dealt with is very small...I don't think you can draw any valid statistical conclusions about what might happen in the next outbreak. One day NSW could find itself dealing with a situation that differs from the limited number it has had to manage so far.

There is a different risk appetite in NSW and more confidence in contract tracing, lock downs only considered in the most dire of circumstances and are localised as much possible - there is nothing to suggest that they will change this approach.

Its happened once in northern beaches affecting 250k people not millions like when they lock down whole of greater Melbourne or Brisbane or Perth. And even then family members form outside the NB were allowed into the southern part NB for xmas eve, xmas day and boxing day, meaning many still had family come to visit (so only about 100k were restricted on xmas). Most of the impact of the NB lockdown actually came form other states closing their borders to whole of NSW unnecessarily.

Statistically speaking I think NSW has had the most outbreaks, just they have always been contained to manageable levels never overwhelming contract tracers or hospitals. And most importantly after two impacted nursing homes in April/May 2020, all subsequent outbreaks have been kept out of Aged Care.

NB was our biggest outbreak but resulted in no deaths (and i think 1 hospitalization) and the highest single day of testing at 69k.

True we may yet get another super spreader event like Crossroads, Thai Rock or NB but i dont think we will any non localised lockdowns.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Why is Vic always so vulnerable to these outbreaks. Nobody else seems to cop the same treatment!

The key point announced to today was that transmission has been occurring in some cases in just over a day. That is a person gets infected and then infects another. Prior to this it was typically five plus days.

This has not been seen in Australia before.

 

[Lynda2475]

Mr Merlino commented that "If we had the vaccine, the Commonwealth's vaccine program effectively rolled out, we may well not be here today." yet case 5 the main person responsible for this outbreak has been eligible for a vaccine since May 3, and wasn't vaccinated and didn't get tested when he had symptoms.

The real cause is complacency - people not getting tested when they have symptoms and continuing to go to work in person (instead of WFH) when they have symptoms.

 

[jakeseven7]

The key point announced to today was that transmission has been occurring in some cases in just over a day. That is a person gets infected and then infects another. Prior to this it was typically five plus days.

This has not been seen in Australia before.

Seems actually like its a very virulent strain.....

 

[Lynda2475]

This has not been seen in Australia before.

That needs a fact check. The transport driver in Sydney who caught covid from an arrival, infected his colleague who then started the BWS outbreak in a 2 day window.

 

[dajop]

There are 3 main roads which were patrolled , but in fact many other smaller ones on the southern and western boarder of the NB LGA.

"Many" smaller ones on the southern border? Prey tell, how do they cross Middle Harbour? I thought the south it was just the Spit and Roseville bridges and that is it. In the north it is pm Mona Vale Road (between St Ives and Terry Hills). If you look on google maps the only other access points are small trails through national parks/forests that most wouldn't dare venture on. I'm not sure where all these many smaller roads are.

In any event, with the natural water and forest boundaries, still a lot easier than carving out a section of Melbourne, particularly the northern suburbs where there are dozens of roads, if not 20, 30 or more.

 

[RooFlyer]

Just listening to the Victorian press conference. What a press rabble! One journalist in particular hectoring and talking over the top of all the others.

 

[henrus]

Just listening to the Victorian press conference. What a press rabble! One journalist in particular hectoring and taking over the top of others.

What do you expect... it also looks like it's been done in the basement today. Was the old room booked for something else?

 

[RooFlyer]

Mind you, there are fine Dorothy Dixers being bowled up too ...

 

[bcworld]

There is a different risk appetite in NSW

And again, this is based on a sample size of next to nothing. It may not always be so.