Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

jakeseven7

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Did they definitively link the Melbourne cluster? I never heard the definitive source of say Black Rock. There was a suspicion of a NSW diner but didn’t that came up negative?

Clearly it was linked sufficiently to the Sydney clusters to satisfy QLD given the open border QLD has with all of VIC ;)
 
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drron

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Did they definitively link the Melbourne cluster? I never heard the definitive transmission source of say Black Rock. There was a suspicion of a NSW diner but didn’t that came up negative?
And did QLD ever find out how the young woman got the virus in Melbourne when she returned with her stash?If not everyone should lock out QLD.
But seriously they are hanging their hat on mystery cases 2 of which I believe were on 1/1 and 5/1 so now over 3 weeks since they occurred so over their infectious period most likely so that anyone they passed it onto should have already been found.
But JY is known for her unusual ideas on covid spread such as Bateman's Bay is close to the ACT so the ACT should be locked out.
 

Lynda2475

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Clearly it was linked sufficiently to the Sydney clusters to satisfy QLD given the open border QLD has with all of VIC

They never definitively linked any of the Melbourne cases to a transmission event in NSW, they only linked the strain via genomic tests. Funnily enough all of the 6 Mystery cases flagged in that article have also been genomically linked to the NB or Berala clusters, so by that argument no issues.

AP and JY love a doublse standard.

The thing is they could announce this week liftng of restrictions as at 12th Feb (28 days from the last mystery case on 15th January) subject to no further mystery cases between now and then. They dont have to wait until the meeting at end of Febto implmenta at start March, except that AP loves to tease GB with border restrictions.

If 28 day rule, actually applies for anyone other than NSW, then AP should have cancelled all flight from NZ for the next 3 days based on their new myster case.
 
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And did QLD ever find out how the young woman got the virus in Melbourne when she returned with her stash?If not everyone should lock out QLD.
But seriously they are hanging their hat on mystery cases 2 of which I believe were on 1/1 and 5/1 so now over 3 weeks since they occurred so over their infectious period most likely so that anyone they passed it onto should have already been found.
But JY is known for her unusual ideas on covid spread such as Bateman's Bay is close to the ACT so the ACT should be locked out.
Don’t give her any ideas!
 
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Pushka

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I don't know if it is just the media but the first thing I see on news.com.au is the heading: Isolate Immediately - worrying Virus find, and Premiers wonder why borders get slammed shut with such alarmist headlines. The story is more like watch for symptoms and isolate and get tested. There are moves to stop alarmist anti vaxxer media reports but the media itself needs to be made more accountable.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Assuming these graphs are still current (they may not be as Health Authorities do not always issue updates)

Qld has not applied the 28 day rule to Vic with respect to the latest cases when the border restrictions were removed. This was from memory about 7 or 8 days after he last unlinked case.

.
However Vic has had only the one genomic strain and possibly two cases that remain unlinked by the contact tracing teams (However covid live shows that a unknown case was removed on 20 Jan and so it may now just be the one unknown case).

Whereas NSW has two strains that were circulating recently and going back 28 days now possibly 9 cases from multiple clusters that are not yet linked (including those still be investigated for links.) So possible transmission chains are greater in number.

Days since last local case is 20 days in Vic and 11 days in NSW.

Cases in Vic were found over 7 day period. In NSW this has been over a whole month.


So overall the possible transmission risk to Qld from NSW from no travel restrictions would be higher than from Vic. (More as yet unknown cases, more likely transmission chains and longer duration of cases circulating)

However given that Qld did not apply the 28 day rule to Vic, how much earlier than 28 days will they relax for NSW? Will it be the week or so used with Vic that could see the review this Thursday remove the restrictions? Or will they be more cautious due the greater degree of unkowns?

I suspect and hope that they will not enforce the full 28 days. And I certainly believe that they should not enforce the full 28 days.

.

1611625421295.png


Victorian Transmission
1611625565653.png
 
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ethernet

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News just in

A very weak denial, and no numbers against the age bell curve. Playing their cards tight. The smaller the sample, the lower the confidence interval. If they rejigged the doses and the interval for the elderly, then by omission, they would be covering up an earlier trial finding - leading to more approval delays. Plus the new strain may have caused an efficacy drop in a particular segment, amplified by trial country(bad luck if that was SA or Brazil).

I am sure they have smart people analyzing the numbers. It would be good if the TGA complicates matters by approving different doses tailored for different segments, and approving now, segments that are good to go.
 

drron

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News just in

A very weak denial, and no numbers against the age bell curve. Playing their cards tight. The smaller the sample, the lower the confidence interval. If they rejigged the doses and the interval for the elderly, then by omission, they would be covering up an earlier trial finding - leading to more approval delays. Plus the new strain may have caused an efficacy drop in a particular segment, amplified by trial country(bad luck if that was SA or Brazil).

I am sure they have smart people analyzing the numbers. It would be good if the TGA complicates matters by approving different doses tailored for different segments, and approving now, segments that are good to go.
Though not what the German vaccine regulator is saying.

And it says the oxford vaccine conditional approval will be discussed on 29/1.

As one smart alec on Twitter suggested Pfizer have bigger brown envelopes. ;)
 

ethernet

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Envelopes indeed. I don't see the source quoted either. Useful to know about 29/01 as the South Koreans kinda leaked approval after then, so I guess grooming for a positive outcome is a near certainty.

In other news

Unless I am mistaken, Australia intends to adopt this broken model, and no advertising campaign will alter a potential 40% minority take up rate. It is my expectation that if there is a global vaccine pecking order for OS travel, that is announced at the same time.
 
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OATEK

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Envelopes indeed. I don't see the source quoted either. Useful to know about 29/01 as the South Koreans kinda leaked approval after then, so I guess grooming for a positive outcome is a near certainty.

In other news

Unless I am mistaken, Australia intends to adopt this broken model, and no advertising campaign will alter a potential 40% minority take up rate. It is my expectation that if there is a global vaccine pecking order for OS travel, that is announced at the same time.
Trying to draw analogous comparisons for vaccine rollout between a country without a universal healthcare system and one with such a system, is in my mind bound to fail.
 

Must...Fly!

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If I recall correctly, Bild is more or less the German equivalent of The Sun
 

moa999

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without a universal healthcare system and one with such a system, is in my mind bound to fail.

That said it wouldn't surprise me if there is an underrepresentation of some minority groups and over representation of others in the healthcare community who are scheduled for the early rollout
 

jakeseven7

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Queensland waste water testing just keeps on giving... This will terrify WA...

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Virus fragments found at seven more Queensland wastewater treatment plants​



Coronavirus fragments have been found in sewage samples collected from seven further wastewater treatment plants in Queensland.

The positive test results were found at:

  • Condon in Townsville in the state’s north
  • Cairns South and Cairns Marlin Coast in far north Queensland
  • Nambour and Maroochydore on the Sunshine Coast
  • Urangan in Hervey Bay
  • Yeppoon on the state’s central coast
“While this does not mean we have new cases of COVID-19 in these communities, we are treating these detections seriously,” Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said.

 

lovetravellingoz

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  • As Border Controls really is a Federal issue why after 12 months has not the Federal Government in particular been more pro-active in setting up similar facilities to Howard Springs and a more robust and expanded quarantine process?
  • Why has the Federal Gov not set up Quarantine in separate self-serviced demountable cabins where for 14 days the occupants would not have to mix with staff, unless for medical reasons? ie Those in quarantine cook for themselves and clean them own accommodation (except for a tiny % who cannot). By reducing mixing you reduce risk.

Well it may now be private enterprise taking the lead on the type of projects that already should have been built and operating.

Wagners propose Queensland coronavirus quarantine facility near Wellcamp airport west of Toowoomba


A coronavirus quarantine facility in southern Queensland has been put to the State Government in a detailed proposal, the ABC can reveal.

Construction firm Wagners has submitted the plan to use its Wellcamp airport, just west of Toowoomba, as the landing point for some of the Australians stranded overseas.

Chairman John Wagner revealed the idea for a 1,000-room quarantine facility to ABC News, which would need to be built from scratch on vacant land close to the airport.

He said arriving passengers would be transferred there by bus.

"We believe that it's a much smarter and safer and cost-efficient operation than what they've currently got going."


"We can get them off the plane and be in their accommodation facility in less than five minutes," Mr Wagner said

 
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