Assuming these graphs are still current (they may not be as Health Authorities do not always issue updates)
Qld has not applied the 28 day rule to Vic with respect to the latest cases when the border restrictions were removed. This was from memory about 7 or 8 days after he last unlinked case.
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However Vic has had only the one genomic strain and possibly two cases that remain unlinked by the contact tracing teams (However covid live shows that a unknown case was removed on 20 Jan and so it may now just be the one unknown case).
Whereas NSW has two strains that were circulating recently and going back 28 days now possibly 9 cases from multiple clusters that are not yet linked (including those still be investigated for links.) So possible transmission chains are greater in number.
Days since last local case is 20 days in Vic and 11 days in NSW.
Cases in Vic were found over 7 day period. In NSW this has been over a whole month.
So overall the possible transmission risk to Qld from NSW from no travel restrictions would be higher than from Vic. (More as yet unknown cases, more likely transmission chains and longer duration of cases circulating)
However given that Qld did not apply the 28 day rule to Vic, how much earlier than 28 days will they relax for NSW? Will it be the week or so used with Vic that could see the review this Thursday remove the restrictions? Or will they be more cautious due the greater degree of unkowns?
I suspect and hope that they will not enforce the full 28 days. And I certainly believe that they should not enforce the full 28 days.
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Victorian Transmission
