Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

Princess Fiona

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As a border resident, we've been suffering at the hands of various governments for six months now. What genius thought that dividing a reasonably large city in half, and leaving it that way for months on end was a good idea?

Locking residents out of their own state is utterly disgusting. End of story.

Roadblocks. NSW police at least used multiple lanes, and even then the traffic jams were often huge. Vic pol make the dual lanes reduce to one. They may have two checking lanes, but the entry is alway single lane. End result is that the traffic banks up so far into Albury that it ends up crossing multiple traffic lights, which adds to the chaos. I know of quite a few people who simply avoid the trip to Albury, unless forced into it.
QLD also reduces to single lanes both M1 and Gold Coast Highway. Took 25-30 minutes to get through on Saturday morning M1, a little quicker on Thursday morning through Gold Coast Highway.
 
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nutwood

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As a border resident, we've been suffering at the hands of various governments for six months now. What genius thought that dividing a reasonably large city in half, and leaving it that way for months on end was a good idea?

Locking residents out of their own state is utterly disgusting. End of story.

Roadblocks. NSW police at least used multiple lanes, and even then the traffic jams were often huge. Vic pol make the dual lanes reduce to one. They may have two checking lanes, but the entry is alway single lane. End result is that the traffic banks up so far into Albury that it ends up crossing multiple traffic lights, which adds to the chaos. I know of quite a few people who simply avoid the trip to Albury, unless forced into it.
I went in and out of NSW last week. In at Echuca and out at Tocumwal. I didn't have to stop but Echuca had large numbers of police standing about, but the traffic was single lane and backed up.
Tocumwal was also single lane and it was easy to see why traffic backed up. We had our pass and so did everyone behind but someone in front had issues so everyone else had to wait. They were set up in a gravel lay-by so it would have been easy to give sufficient width for two lanes.
I think the idea is that they only have to glance at the pass and wave you through but they apparently didn't factor in that not everyone would be efficient and have the pass ready and waiting.
 
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ethernet

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So as you can see the TGA's conditional approval is both late and duplicates more advanced countries with actual medical manufacturing ability. Pfizer probably have a good idea about the SA strain resistance, and UK downgrade - and the TGA had better considered that, and make a mention of it. You assume a 40K trial is in progress in both SA and Brazil right now, to determine that.

There are a few takeaways from the article, like indications 25% of the population will delay or NOT vaccinate and the rate needed is >70% for herd immunity.

I reiterate my call for Australian decision makers to be flexible who gets it first. Australia's wet markets should also be high on the list - think Flemmington markets and Prymont fishies. Vagrants and people sleeping on the streets, and churches where the age profile is mostly oldies.

I want to hear clear policy like Australians can travel out after the shot, once all people in Australian have been offered the shot. I do not want to be delayed those who made bad decisions. They and their communities deserve to fully bear the cost of a loosing bet. Nembutol for those in remote places who would otherwise need ventilation.

Next the Cwth needs to punish states on the teat of public monies. If caps remain on vaccinated returnee's, there will be consequences. They can determine an acceptable policy and an annonce it. It is my belief that being unable or unwilling to announce future travel protocols will drastically lower vaccine take-up rates.
 

RooFlyer

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In amongst all these state-by-state counts, can I just note that we've just achieved a week with no local transmission nationally (and nine days out of the past ten). Well done, Oz.

Federal Health Minister

Flag Australia GIF
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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In amongst all these state-by-state counts, can I just note that we've just achieved a week with no local transmission nationally (and nine days out of the past ten). Well done, Oz.

Federal Health Minister

Flag Australia GIF
Don’t mention it - I personally did nothing different to contribute this week (or last week, given it gets detected a few days later) lol
 

Gremlin

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There are a few takeaways from the article, like indications 25% of the population will delay or NOT vaccinate and the rate needed is >70% for herd immunity.
This stat is relevant in Israel, given that their population have full coverage by the Pfizer vaccine. It will be different for Australia, given most of Australia's population will be covered by AstraZeneca with its lower efficacy.

The article below talks about vaccination rates to achieve herd immunity based on a variety of factors. My take from a few calcs after reading the article below is that, given the lower efficacy of AstraZeneca, Australia will either need to achieve full (or close to it) take up rate for herd immunity or hope that the Novavax vaccine has efficacy much closer to Pfizer/Moderna than AZ's. (Or that the Australian Govt can source Pfizer/Moderna in greater quantities going forward)

 

ethernet

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This stat is relevant in Israel, given that their population have full coverage by the Pfizer vaccine. It will be different for Australia, given most of Australia's population will be covered by AstraZeneca with its lower efficacy.

The article below talks about vaccination rates to achieve herd immunity based on a variety of factors. My take from a few calcs after reading the article below is that, given the lower efficacy of AstraZeneca, Australia will either need to achieve full (or close to it) take up rate for herd immunity or hope that the Novavax vaccine has efficacy much closer to Pfizer/Moderna than AZ's. (Or that the Australian Govt can source Pfizer/Moderna in greater quantities going forward)

Excellent point!
I think the Oxford one was unlucky on multiple fronts, then along comes a variant to poison real time like for like comparisons. With dosage tweaking it should approach towards 90%, unless a new variant throws in another spanner. All vaccine claims are under the hammer to evolving variants. The Oxford one is probably enough to 'not die' for most, and allow for a future mrna booster variant if required. I could find no announcements from Pfizer on the 501.V2 yet they have had >2 weeks to look into it.

Herd immunity is not necessary, and those that reject vaccinations must take their chances going forward. The goal is risk management in a post vaccinated environment., including normal air travel (bar virus resistance).




 

Gremlin

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Whilst herd immunity is not necessary, something approaching it might be required for "normal" air travel. To that extent, I have a number of contacts in various governments overseas, some of whom are considering vaccine passports. Several have mentioned that their countries will not be treating all vaccines as equal. Conditions of entry/quarantine requirements might be very different for those having had Moderna/Pfizer compared to AstraZeneca compared to Sinovac/Sinopharm/Gamelaya.
 

drron

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The Oxford vaccine probably has a head start on the new mutations.Their Phase 3 trials were the UK,South Africa and Brazil.

And just because a vaccine in their phase 3 trials has a 90% efficacy that is not definite proof that they will be better than a vaccine with 70% efficacy.The reason is the number of positives in the Phase 3 trials are quite small.It will be different when millions are vaccinated.

This is the reason the authorisation is Provisional at this point of time.Full authorisation occurs after at least 2 years usage when it is more likely potential problems are either a real problem or not.

An example.There was a dengue vaccine brought to market in 2016.It ended up getting full authorisation in 2018 from the FDA.Then in 2019 young children in the Phillipines who had had the vaccine started dying.It turned out if they did pick up the virus it caused much more severe disease so the vaccine has gone.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Well just to demonstrate that the color of the party has nothing to do with being a bellwether of border closures the Federal Gov has just closed the border to NZ based on one case for at least 72 hours.

And again whether is justified or not is a separate argument/discussion.
 
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Must...Fly!

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Well just to demonstrate that the color of the party has nothing to do with being a bellwether of border closures the Federal Gov has just closed the border to NZ based on one case for at least 72 hours.

And again whether is justified or not is a separate argument/discussion.
From ABC;

Greg Hunt says as a general rule this wouldn't happen but certain facts about this case made the Government take swift action.

"It was simply because of the length of period between the infection and the confirmation that this was one of the potentially far more transmissable variants — and the number of places which the individual in question is understood to have visited."

Mr Hunt says because of the time and because of the transmissability, the AHPPC "unanimously recommended a realtime response from the Government to implement the 72-hour pause".
 

Pushka

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Well just to demonstrate that the color of the party has nothing to do with being a bellwether of border closures the Federal Gov has just closed the border to NZ based on one case for at least 72 hours.

And again whether is justified or not is a separate argument/discussion.
Not unreasonable given it was always one way and there is no quarantine or testing requirement at all. And this being the South African variety and a long exposure period.
 
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Lynda2475

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Well just to demonstrate that the color of the party has nothing to do with being a bellwether of border closures the Federal Gov has just closed the border to NZ based on one case for at least 72 hours.

Not quite - they have reintroduced the quarantine requirement. New Zealanders can arrive, they just have to pay for 14 days hotel quarantine.
 

nutwood

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The Oxford vaccine probably has a head start on the new mutations.Their Phase 3 trials were the UK,South Africa and Brazil.

And just because a vaccine in their phase 3 trials has a 90% efficacy that is not definite proof that they will be better than a vaccine with 70% efficacy.The reason is the number of positives in the Phase 3 trials are quite small.It will be different when millions are vaccinated.

This is the reason the authorisation is Provisional at this point of time.Full authorisation occurs after at least 2 years usage when it is more likely potential problems are either a real problem or not.

An example.There was a dengue vaccine brought to market in 2016.It ended up getting full authorisation in 2018 from the FDA.Then in 2019 young children in the Phillipines who had had the vaccine started dying.It turned out if they did pick up the virus it caused much more severe disease so the vaccine has gone.
Very pertinent post. I'm being concerned by the vaccine comparisons that are based on simple numbers. It's like comparing starters at an old fashioned 1/4 mile. Compared with the complexities of a virus, propelling a car for 400m is simple but the obvious numbers seldom won even then! Too many other factors; 350 hp @ 8000 rpm gets walked by 200 hp @ 2000 rpm. 65% vaccine is better than a 95% vaccine because the 35% failures get sick whilst the 5% failures die. It takes years to get this stuff straight.
 

jakeseven7

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This is a little concerning.... I wonder if the QLD gov has pre-leaked strategically to the media to soften the impending blow.... hope not.... :(

——

Race to trace cases or Queensland border could stay shut until March​



Sydneysiders could remain locked out of Queensland until March as contact tracers race against the clock to link six mystery infections before the border restrictions are reviewed on Thursday.

The Palaszczuk government is sticking to its policy of keeping Queensland’s border closed to declared hotspots until they can go 28 days without a mystery case of COVID-19.

NSW contact tracers must pinpoint the source of each infection or Queensland’s border will not open at the end of the month

The six cases under investigation were found in Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Northern Beaches and Blacktown and reported on January 1, 5, 7, 10 and 15.

 

HappyFlyerFamily

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This is a little concerning.... I wonder if the QLD gov has pre-leaked strategically to the media to soften the impending blow.... hope not.... :(

——

Race to trace cases or Queensland border could stay shut until March​



Sydneysiders could remain locked out of Queensland until March as contact tracers race against the clock to link six mystery infections before the border restrictions are reviewed on Thursday.

The Palaszczuk government is sticking to its policy of keeping Queensland’s border closed to declared hotspots until they can go 28 days without a mystery case of COVID-19.

NSW contact tracers must pinpoint the source of each infection or Queensland’s border will not open at the end of the month

The six cases under investigation were found in Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Northern Beaches and Blacktown and reported on January 1, 5, 7, 10 and 15.

Did they definitively link the Melbourne cluster? I never heard the definitive transmission source of say Black Rock. There was a suspicion of a NSW diner but didn’t that came up negative?
 
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