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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

justinbrett

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By the same logic NSW was never really tested either as NSW never had rampant Covid 19 community spread.
Not to the same scale, but nearly 2000 locally acquired cases. Really the first wave was contained to NSW, hardly any cases by comparison in the other states. The fact it didn't get out of hand like Victoria is not because it wasn't tested - it's because is was tested and succeeded. Victoria failed their test spectacularly.

Well I would guess that you would be wrong. The SA outbreak was/is not that big and all that was/is required in the main for such a situation is the two rings of containment method that was demonstrated in Vic to work so well.
Please explain how the SA response was not an overaction and has lasting economic consequences (still not allowed in WA or QLD). My point was that the outbreak itself wasn't big, but the response was not proportional.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Please explain how the SA response was not an overaction and has lasting economic consequences (still not allowed in WA or QLD). My point was that the outbreak itself wasn't big, but the response was not proportional.
Why would I do such a thing when I have expressed the opposite view? Both in the paragraph of my you quoted and in previous posts since the SA outbreak began.

I have stated that they did overact and that all they mainly needed to have done was to put in place two rings of containment.

The pizza guy was as I previously had stated was a scapegoat for their making wrong assumptions early on about how quickly the virus was infecting people, whereas all it really was was one large family becoming infected with the normal transmission that then occurs.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Really the first wave was contained to NSW, hardly any cases by comparison in the other states.

Not sure how you can state that NSW had hardly any cases by comparison to the other states though.
The graph below shows cases per 100,000 residents for each state and territory.

1606918666602.png
 

justinbrett

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Why would I do such a thing when I have expressed the opposite view? Both in the paragraph of my you quoted and in previous posts since the SA outbreak began.

I have stated that they did overact and that all they mainly needed to have done was to put in place two rings of containment.

The pizza guy was as I previously had stated was a scapegoat for their making wrong assumptions early on about how quickly the virus was infecting people, whereas all it really was was one large family becoming infected with the normal transmission that then occurs.
Oh sorry, I misread your post. I guess where we disagree is I think SA would do the same again (I believe both the premier and CHO said exactly that) and from past performance I think VIC would do the same. Hopefully we don’t have to find out.
 
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justinbrett

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Not sure how you can state that NSW had hardly any cases by comparison to the other states though.
The graph below shows cases per 100,000 residents for each state and territory.

View attachment 234957
This graph is not helpful because:
a. It includes the second wave which distorts the scale when I’m talking about the first wave in isolation
b. It includes all cases, most of which where in home or hotel isolation.
c. per captia stats are not always a valid comparison of outbreaks. If the NT had 720 cases it would be worse per capita than Victoria. But it’s still a lot easier to manage and recover from 720 cases in a population of 250K than 20,000 in 6.4M. It’s just the way exponents work, 4 squared is a lot more than double 2 squared.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Oh sorry, I misread your post. I guess where we disagree is I think SA would do the same again (I believe both the premier and CHO said exactly that) and from past performance I think VIC would do the same. Hopefully we don’t have to fiPNR out.

We will have to agree to disagree then on what Victoria would be likely to do with an outbreak the size of the current SA one.

IMO Vic became overwhelmed with the Second Wave (after having eliminated the strains that formed the First Wave) and so had to introduce more drastic means (and while a strict lockdown, it was not a total lockdown, nor the strictest in the world like some like to claim) to minimise people mixing as that is the most efficient way to prevent transmission i such circumstance where there is rampant unknown community spread.

While the restrictions were bring down community transmission, the other covid control systems were all being ramped up. And that meant that at the end of the second wave that they were largely used to stamp out the last cases. ie Larger test volumes within 24 hrs, expanded contact tracing in both staff and systems, adoption of two rings of containment around any new cases, expanding who had to isolate, better support for low paid workers who had no access to sickleave, statewide wastewater monitoring, surveillance monitoring of higher risk workplaces like abattoirs etc.

All of these measures lead me to the conclusion that if Victoria had a similar new outbreak as SA has just had that they would just deploy these tools now assembled, and principally the two rings of containment around any new case. ie Just what was done in Victoria with all the last clusters as they occurred. ie Kilmore, Shepparton, EPIC.


Nationally I would hope that this will be the approach when eventually the next outbreak happens somewhere in Australia.
 

jakeseven7

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Some unfortunate breaking news for NSW.

A community transmission case has been picked up with a hotel quarantine worker testing positive, so appears another quarantine breach.

Just heard on the radio.

This might derail WA opening up to NSW and push that opening past Christmas.

No word from QLD yet on whether their borders will SLAM SHUT - 48 hour linking clock has started ticking... hopefully they can ID the source ASAP.
 
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jase05

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Some unfortunate breaking news for NSW.

A community transmission case has been picked up with a hotel quarantine worker testing positive, so appears another quarantine breach.

Just heard on the radio.

This might derail WA opening up to NSW and push that opening past Christmas.

No word from QLD yet on whether their borders will SLAM SHUT - 48 hour linking clock has started ticking... hopefully they can ID the source ASAP.
Worked at the Novotel and Ibis so hopefully they get on top of it quickly
 

Pushka

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And thank goodness they are now testing Hotel Quarantine workers as routine. Well, I think they are in NSW?

So she worked in quarantine and non quarantine hotels? 🙇🏼‍♀️🤦‍♀️ We learn nothing, do we.

My nephew working in France leaves tonight to spend Christmas in Adelaide with his young kids. His plans to come into Adelaide kyboshed due to our quarantine issues so trust he doesn't get mucked up again. He leaves tonight.

And apparently the initial Parafield cluster in SA is declared over now.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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If the source is quarantine hotel then the key dates are 28-30 November, which is when the worker was on site. (Infected 3-5 days ago)

5 family members tested negative

Travelled to work from Minto (SW Sydney), so there is a small chance not from quarantine.
 

nutwood

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I was just having a conversation with someone regarding how well NSW had done in not allowing the virus to escape from their quarantine hotels, especially given the numbers they are handling.
Oh well, yet another indicator of the risks involved in quarantining people in hotels.
 

jase05

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Travelled to work on trams.... aaargh.... fingers crossed. I thought they were only allowed to work at one site?
Aren’t the Novotel and Ibis all one complex there?
Not sure on the NSW regulations and if they have a dedicated hotel for positives or not
 

Pushka

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Has it been 2 weeks since the last case??? Another strange (SA Health I assume) announcement....doesn’t make much sense.....sigh
I think they have decided to isolate the original "batch of the 5000" people. Their isolation finished yesterday including the Doctor and medical staff who were working when the lady first presented. No more positives from that group once the family had been flushed through.

There is still the cluster of the Uni group of which I fell into as a casual contact, and I am at Day 12. Not that I am counting. 😂
 

jakeseven7

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Has it been 2 weeks since the last case??? Another strange (SA Health I assume) announcement....doesn’t make much sense.....sigh

Maybe they are trying to send a message to the more flustered state governments like QLD and WA that it is in hand and Christmas border openings should be back on the table....
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Maybe they are trying to send a message to the more flustered state governments like QLD and WA that it is in hand and Christmas border openings should be back on the table....
I guess SA has better relations with Qld/WA than NSW, but NSW did try that previously. NSW wasn’t counting old mystery cases, etc.
 

justinbrett

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Some unfortunate breaking news for NSW.

A community transmission case has been picked up with a hotel quarantine worker testing positive, so appears another quarantine breach.

Just heard on the radio.

This might derail WA opening up to NSW and push that opening past Christmas.

No word from QLD yet on whether their borders will SLAM SHUT - 48 hour linking clock has started ticking... hopefully they can ID the source ASAP.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's one case most likely from Quarantine. The system is working.

It's only if they find community transmission that we need to start worrying.

If any state closes it's border to NSW because of this, I hope Gladys starts restricting HQ in SYD to NSW residents. It's about time the other states lift their game.
 

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