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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

Gremlin

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While fears will always be what the person holds, the more optimistic view is that Vic, and NSW will continue to drive things down and achieve zero for incubations periods which will then allow even more rules in various jurisdictions to be relaxed and to become more common within the jurisdictions.

With Vic the next 3 weeks should be quite telling (for both Vic and for ultimate national common restriction levels) as with decreased restrictions and more mixing there is the potential for cases to kick up again.

If any such new cases are handled well with third ring measures and quarantining, and good swift contact tracing, then the outlook for low restriction levels and free movement is good.

Note that some cases that may occur in Vic still may already be in quarantined households and contained. So it will be more those new cases that occur from outside of a quarantined household, if any, that if they do occur that will be be the subject of everyone's attention and dare I say fears.
I don't disagree - but the tolerance for different levels of virus in the community is clearly different for different states. I'd daresay NSW at one end of the spectrum and WA at the other. NSW has offset its position for "keeping businesses and borders open" with tighter restrictions on the operation of such businesses. There's a lot of press about the positive economic impacts of "keeping businesses and borders open" but no where near as much commentary on the negative economic impacts of those tighter restrictions. There's no free lunch there.

As an example, both my kids are into their sport. Earlier this month my 13 yr old daughter participated in the largest community sporting event held in Australia since the start of COVID. It was held in regional Qld and attracted over 10,000 people, including over 2,000 participants, under a detailed COVID-Safe plan. NSW Health has declared that the equivalent event in NSW cannot be held in 2020 and it is unlikely to be held in 2021, given the levels of virus in the community. You can't put a price on that. Except, of course, you can - the regional council where the event was held made a big announcement about the fact that this event brought in approx $8.5m to the community.

My 15 yr old son has competed internationally in his chosen sport. Whilst obviously he's not doing that now, he has competed at various competitions across the state over the past couple of months. The equivalent competitions in NSW aren't happening, again because NSW Health have determined that they can't be held safely with the current levels of virus in the community. The NSW governing body for his sport is losing money hand over fist and may not survive. No such worries for the Qld governing body.

From a personal perspective, I would expect Vic's tolerance for an underlying level of virus in the community to be very, very low, but NSW maybe not. If virus levels are driven to effectively zero, then that's fine. That means NSW and Vic are heading towards where every other state is - but the underlying implication in Lynda's comment was that others may need to adapt as borders open. I don't think that's the only solution, nor quite frankly, the right solution.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Just for Pushka..the drinking at the bar question was just asked of Dan. ;)


He said that he hoped as soon as possible. Can't be certain when.
 

drron

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I am not sure what it says in the Tasmanian rules but here in Devonport and surrounds standing and drinking at the bar does occur.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I don't disagree - but the tolerance for different levels of virus in the community is clearly different for different states. I'd daresay NSW at one end of the spectrum and WA at the other. NSW has offset its position for "keeping businesses and borders open" with tighter restrictions on the operation of such businesses. There's a lot of press about the positive economic impacts of "keeping businesses and borders open" but no where near as much commentary on the negative economic impacts of those tighter restrictions. There's no free lunch there.

As an example, both my kids are into their sport. Earlier this month my 13 yr old daughter participated in the largest community sporting event held in Australia since the start of COVID. It was held in regional Qld and attracted over 10,000 people, including over 2,000 participants, under a detailed COVID-Safe plan. NSW Health has declared that the equivalent event in NSW cannot be held in 2020 and it is unlikely to be held in 2021, given the levels of virus in the community. You can't put a price on that. Except, of course, you can - the regional council where the event was held made a big announcement about the fact that this event brought in approx $8.5m to the community.

My 15 yr old son has competed internationally in his chosen sport. Whilst obviously he's not doing that now, he has competed at various competitions across the state over the past couple of months. The equivalent competitions in NSW aren't happening, again because NSW Health have determined that they can't be held safely with the current levels of virus in the community. The NSW governing body for his sport is losing money hand over fist and may not survive. No such worries for the Qld governing body.

From a personal perspective, I would expect Vic's tolerance for an underlying level of virus in the community to be very, very low, but NSW maybe not. If virus levels are driven to effectively zero, then that's fine. That means NSW and Vic are heading towards where every other state is - but the underlying implication in Lynda's comment was that others may need to adapt as borders open. I don't think that's the only solution, nor quite frankly, the right solution.

I agree.

And it is entirely possible to soon bring back free movement between states, but to also have some local differences in restrictions, and especially over the next few months,whether that is event types and numbers, or drinking at the bar etc. There have always been differences between the sates whether it be when you can get a car licence, speed limits, shop or have a drink (licensing) etc and so we can function nationally with ongoing differences still ;)

Without that movement then some sectors like tourism, education and even some business will remain down the gurgler for $billions.

With some restrictions though the question is at what level of risk are certain restrictions just unreasonable? Obviously with recent cases in Vic other states are still quire reasonably protecting themselves. from what the current situation is in Vic. And ditto with respect to NSW.
 

lovetravellingoz

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I am not sure they gave a number today, but with the third ring measures there are probably still hundreds of households in Vic that are still completing their quarantining periods. And quite possibly they may still, as with today's two positive test results, generate further positive test results.

If the practice for these households remains similar to what was recently discussed they will be offered tests on day 3 and 11 (or they can instead just quarantine for the full 14 days without testing).

Hopefully we have no new cases outside those already in quarantine. But there may well be of course.



Post automatically merged:



NSW one new local case.

NSW has reported one new case of locally transmitted COVID-19, linked to a known source, in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. Seven cases were also reported in overseas travellers in hotel quarantine, bringing the total number of cases in NSW to 4,217.



1603845072385.png
 
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Gremlin

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Further to my post above about the level of restrictions in NSW vs here in Qld, Gladys had this to say this morning...

We're allowing our citizens as much freedom as possible in a COVID-safe way

I think it proves the point, that what constitutes "COVID-safe" is a function of the risk of virus in the community. When you stack up all the things you can't do in NSW that you can do here in Qld, there's a definite cost benefit trade-off. And similarly, when you look at what you can do in NZ or WA that you can't do here in Qld, it's equally apparent.
 

drron

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Received an email from the Tasmanian health department today re the new border policy.The relevant part.

"Incoming travellers from low-risk jurisdictions will not need to quarantine, as long as they have not spent time in medium or high-risk areas in the 14 days prior to arriving in Tasmania. Low risk jurisdictions travellers need to register their travel and contact details via the new Tas e-Travel system.

Currently, low-risk areas are: Queensland, ACT, South Australia, Western Australia, Northern Territory, and New Zealand.

Travellers who have spent time in a medium or high-risk area in the 14 days prior to arrival in Tasmania are required to quarantine and need to submit their application and intended quarantine location via the G2G system.

Currently, New South Wales is classified as a medium-risk jurisdiction. Anyone travelling from Victoria, overseas (other than New Zealand), and a cruise ship is considered a traveller from a high-risk jurisdiction.

If a medium or high-risk person’s travel is identified as critical for work, health, compassionate or other specified reasons, they can seek entry as an Essential Traveller via the G2G system and request a full or partial exemption from quarantine. These applications will continue to be individually assessed and a determination made which may result in refusal of entry, entry with strict quarantine or entry with other quarantine conditions applying."

Now when I had my essential traveller pass in April I was allowed to quarantine in my unit but allowed to travel to and from work.At all times when out of the unit I had to wear a mask.No visits to supermarkets etc only work.
Arriving from QLD in September did not have to self isolate but again had to wear a mask for 14 days when outside my unit.

I suspect from Victoria it may be the first option that is applied.That is allowed to work but self isolate at all other times.
 

jb747

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Outside of the hard border WA really don't have many Covid Safe restrictions in place - they may actually have to reintroduce some limits such as no standing bar service and start enforcing mandatory check-ins when they finally open the border on April 1,

And I guess the April Fool’s joke will be in nobody comes, or cares.

NT also seems to allow non-seated service since taking Step 3 on 5 June. It was explicitly not allowed during Step 2 (15 May - 4 June).

Seated service in an NT bar...will wonders never cease.
 
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jakeseven7

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Further to my post above about the level of restrictions in NSW vs here in Qld, Gladys had this to say this morning...



I think it proves the point, that what constitutes "COVID-safe" is a function of the risk of virus in the community. When you stack up all the things you can't do in NSW that you can do here in Qld, there's a definite cost benefit trade-off. And similarly, when you look at what you can do in NZ or WA that you can't do here in Qld, it's equally apparent.

Doesn't really matter anyway (with the always goes without saying 'special' exception of WA...) as they have all agreed to the reopening framework at National Cabinet which has defined periods of time post events (e.g. VIC reopening) for borders to be reviewed and progressively opened, with an end goal of all open prior to Christmas .

Decision has been made, this is the strategy we are going with and I'm sure post March WA Gov will also change their mind too.
 

antycbr

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Doesn't really matter anyway (with the always goes without saying 'special' exception of WA...) as they have all agreed to the reopening framework at National Cabinet which has defined periods of time post events (e.g. VIC reopening) for borders to be reviewed and progressively opened, with an end goal of all open prior to Christmas .

Decision has been made, this is the strategy we are going with and I'm sure post March WA Gov will also change their mind too.
I doubt WA can survive closed to March, the pressure from residents is building internally. If you brave Facebook, anything about the borders is now 50/50 between open and closed.
 

Gremlin

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Doesn't really matter anyway (with the always goes without saying 'special' exception of WA...) as they have all agreed to the reopening framework at National Cabinet which has defined periods of time post events (e.g. VIC reopening) for borders to be reviewed and progressively opened, with an end goal of all open prior to Christmas .

Decision has been made, this is the strategy we are going with and I'm sure post March WA Gov will also change their mind too.
You need to read the releases very carefully. There has been no formal agreement around the reopening framework. There has instead been an "in principle agreement". Same as there has been several times in the past. But, I guess, if you say it often enough, eventually it will be true. It may even be so this time round.

In particular, this line was in the PM's media statement...

The Commonwealth and seven states and territories agreed that reopening by Christmas under the Framework sets a pathway for the removal of domestic border restrictions where it is safe to do so, and with free movement of people and freight consistent with National Cabinet’s strategy of suppression with a goal of no community transmission.

PM's Media Release 23 October

The issue isn't whether this is the end goal. Everyone wants it to be the end goal, including dare I suggest it, WA. The issue is rather, what happens if that goal ('no community transmission') is not achieved. Berejiklian has repeatedly said that the NSW Govt don't believe that goal to be realistic. So what then? Do the state governments then interpret it in their own interests once again?
 

Pushka

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Just for Pushka..the drinking at the bar question was just asked of Dan. ;)


He said that he hoped as soon as possible. Can't be certain when.
It's another coincidence. Just after I posted the question the SA Police Commissioner was asked the same thing on the radio. And he said it will be on the agenda on the next meeting in a weeks time. Clearly drinking whilst standing at the bar is an integral part of Aussie culture. I missed out on that gene!
 

dajop

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Clearly drinking whilst standing at the bar is an integral part of Aussie culture. I missed out on that gene!

Quite some years ago, when I more frequently went to bars and pubs than I do now. standing somewhere in the bar/pub (but not necessarily at the bar) was the default, rare to be sitting down. Solo drinkers were probably more likely to stand at the bar and groups not so much....
 
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It's another coincidence. Just after I posted the question the SA Police Commissioner was asked the same thing on the radio. And he said it will be on the agenda on the next meeting in a weeks time. Clearly drinking whilst standing at the bar is an integral part of Aussie culture. I missed out on that gene!
Standing and drinking was my pet hate when I first came to Australia. Going to the pub for lunch and a drink with fellow workers was common and even though it’s 43 years ago I can still remember how much I hated it. I can walk big distances, but don’t ask me to stand for a lengthy period :)
 

RooFlyer

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I am not sure what it says in the Tasmanian rules but here in Devonport and surrounds standing and drinking at the bar does occur.

HFF beat me to it, but recall the pub we went to in Burnie had signs up re no queuing at the bar, sit-down drinking etc. Dr Veitch was asked yesterday about relaxation of that rule - not gunna happen for a while.
 

RooFlyer

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But the checks if not done this summer would mean that given the dangerous nature of fuel that continued operation would be in breach of safety requirements.

The whole premise of the post I referred to and the 'oh, there could be a problem' thing was invalid. I think every state has an essential worker scheme of some form of another, and for Tas this has been mentioned before, so why it was thought that these essential checks might not get done, and the fuel might stop and we'd all be 'riding bikes' I can't imagine. You might have seen reference to the fact that even plasterers for a new hotel got in under 'essential traveller' ! I only say this because you have been so vigilant in correcting the slightest error or misapprehension on anyone else's part here ;)

In fact, Tas has got on rather well these past few months; two quarters in a row where we had the best economic performance in CommBank's national survey. As much as I've been critical of the Tas Govt's conservative policies, they seem to have worked OK.
 
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