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Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

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Is there a flagging of an early half step?...courtesy of abc COVID live blog


Premier Daniel Andrews:
I would think they will be assessing where the cases are. The guide is an average of 5 a day with 5 unknowns over the two weeks. If the numbers got to say 8 with 5 unknowns, but the majority of cases were coming from care then they could still move to step 3. That was the rationale for lifting the curfew.

They were adamant about the new date as they said they needed 3 weeks before they could fully assess the impact of the new freedoms.
 

lovetravellingoz

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History is a great predictor of future unless hard lessons have been learnt.
And recent history perhaps an even better predictor? So what are the issues that you are concerned about that have not been worked on, or are being worked on?

Hotel quarantine is now run by Prisons Vic and dedicated staff have been employed so that they can be trained for the task (Other state still using contractors who may be at a shopping centre one week and hotel quarantine the next. Also the ADF cannot stay at Hotel Quarantine permanently and so all other states will eventually need to make other arrangements too. While international arrivals ceased in Victoria for the time being, quarantine has still be operating for various people and no leakage has occurred.

The Heath Team: The CHO has had three new Deputy HOs added to his team all of whom focus on Covid 19 =Allen Cheng, from The Alfred hospital, Rhonda Stuart, from Monash Health, and Paul Johnson, from Austin Health. Deputy Chief Health Officer Annaliese van Diemen shifted back to non-COVID duties (her previous role) including the Bird Flu Outbreak which commenced in late July in Victoria.

Contract tracing has been completely overhauled in technology and staff resources in quality and quantity increased. It also now includes better decentralisation and integration with the other states with plans all states become even better integrated.

Measures are also in place now to better work with affected migrant minorities when that group is affected.

South Korea is lauded for its contract tracing. If you compare the recent history in Victoria the overall measures (including control measures) compare extremely well to other jurisdiction in the world which had to deal with a like numbers of cases.

1601346364598.png

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Testing. Vic has developed several new tests including the saliva test, as well as expanding test capacity. Other measures such as in-home testing is available.

Workplaces. Strictest controls in Australia. However CV19 has brought to the fore various problems with the casualisation of workforces in Australia and which are not unique to Victoria and include matters like lack of sickleave. All states need to take note. This will be a longterm issue.

Which basically leaves Aged Care as the main ongoing concern. The Federal Gov is the government that sets the standards here, and which is responsible for monitoring. Which is not to say that State Governments have no role because they do, but it is the Federal Government who has the responsibility to shape Aged Care in Australia. Covid 19 obviously exposed the lack of preparedness in some Aged care Facilities, but this should perhaps not really a surprise as the flu rips through many aged care facilities throughout Australia each year with fatalities each year but which seem to have not caused the required change. Some Private Aged Care Facilities and some run by Religious Organisations have been found to be in particular lacking. With what has been said at the Federal Inquiry this does not surprise. It personally did not surprise me as over a year ago I looked closely at aged care facilities due to by parents, brother and MIL and while there are some good ones there were many disgraceful ones, and others that were sadly lacking. Age Care, in all its forms, remains a problem and not just with respect to Covid19.


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Added

Controls.


Early in the second wave one could argue that various controls were brought in a week too late each time.

More recently this has more to a more cautious approach of tighter controls, and to only relax them a week or so after when they perhaps could have been.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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A higher proportion of cases not immediately classified today.

Community cases over 14 days (note the 48hr lag) after having plateaued for 3 days have once again dropped. The trend being still good, but this looks likely to remain the hardest next trigger to achieve.

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The trends for those in hospital are all positive. Though sadly deaths are still occurring and are likely to for some weeks yet.

1601350025544.png
 

dajop

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Just a comment, comparing to Singapore is an apples vs oranges comparison. The overwhelming majority of cases in Singapore were fenced off from the community in worker dormitories (with high density living conditions) and the governments strategy was to isolate those in the dormitories and systematically work through them. From memory the aim was to eliminate as much as possible from dorms by National Day (Aug 9). The number of cases in the dorms was a function of amount of testing. You will notice the day average initially troughed around July 10 and then increased again. A co-incidence perhaps that July 10 was election day? :rolleyes: Also in last two months, they've made it easier for employment and work pass holders to re-enter the country which has seen a surge of imported cases (mainly from India, and to a lesser extent Philippines), albeit isolated in hotels.
 

drron

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And South Korea and Victoria is more like comparing a grape to a watermelon.South Korea has a population of 51.6 million so if it's second wave followed the Victorian pattern the would have exceeded 5000 cases per day in the second wave instead of less than 500 actual cases.Because their contact tracing and quarantine works well.As well they do not have a lockdown any where as severe as Victoria.
 

RAM

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Yes this inquiry seems to have totally missed the mark, and been too focussed on the security guards rather that why and how hotel quarantine failed so badly. We all know that it failed badly. That was a given.

I noted:

Earlier today, the inquiry heard Victoria Police's preference for private security to be used in the program contributed to a "creeping assumption" among authorities that the decision had been made.
Counsel assisting the inquiry, Rachel Ellyard, said this morning it was "astonishing" that not one senior member of the Victorian Government could determine where the decision originated.

This seems to sum up the whole Victorian Hotel Quarantine as it existed. ie That no one person, or organisation was running it. That the inquiry has yet to flesh this out I also find quite amazing.

If no one was captaining the ship, it is no wonder that it founded. Rather than asking who appointed the security guards, why was the question not asked on why was no one person/organisation appointed to run hotel quarantine?
Not an intentional pun but...

Seems like a case of Chinese Whispers having an almost worst case outcome.

Is this just another example of the falling educational standards that see comprehension skills failing? The ability of people these days to accurately paraphrase a message is abyssmal. Since the late 1990s as a matter of course I always check the source when someone passes on a message to me. After the first few 'fails' I automatically assumed the message will have been lost in translation.
___________________________________​

Perhaps the new maxim for all State & Federal Health Departments, when dealing with a suspected highly contagious outbreak, shoudl be:

"Act in haste, repent at leisure"

with a tip of the hat to the medical profession thrown in:

"An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure"

Some how the metric-alation of it does not sound so good;

"28.4 grams of prevention is worth 454 grams of cure"
 
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lovetravellingoz

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And South Korea and Victoria is more like comparing a grape to a watermelon.South Korea has a population of 51.6 million so if it's second wave followed the Victorian pattern the would have exceeded 5000 cases per day in the second wave instead of less than 500 actual cases.Because their contact tracing and quarantine works well.As well they do not have a lockdown any where as severe as Victoria.
We all know that the performance in Victoria at the start of the second wave was not good and so I was not comparing pre-peak performance of the second wave, nor relative maximums of the second wave in each country, but I was making the point that the recent Victorian performance from the peak of the second wave has been good if you compare trends. There are many regions/countries that have struggled with suppressing the second wave if they have had one. I only showed Singapore and South Korea as they too have done well. Many other second wave regions/countries are not so good.

ie That Victoria has gotten its act together after the second wave really took hold and that compared to many places has seen real declines.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Just a comment, comparing to Singapore is an apples vs oranges comparison. The overwhelming majority of cases in Singapore were fenced off from the community in worker dormitories (with high density living conditions) and the governments strategy was to isolate those in the dormitories and systematically work through them. From memory the aim was to eliminate as much as possible from dorms by National Day (Aug 9). The number of cases in the dorms was a function of amount of testing. You will notice the day average initially troughed around July 10 and then increased again. A co-incidence perhaps that July 10 was election day? :rolleyes: Also in last two months, they've made it easier for employment and work pass holders to re-enter the country which has seen a surge of imported cases (mainly from India, and to a lesser extent Philippines), albeit isolated in hotels.

Yes it is . I was more making the point that post second wave that the recent performance in Victoria has been good and so I just showed the graphs of other countries that had also done well and where countries that have been considered to have been good performers in the pandemic. Comparing any region/country will always be problematic.

Maybe I should have shown showed jurisdictions that have struggled. Say Israel instead (took off at about the same time, population not greatly larger).

1601362314573.png


Greece (about 50% more population that Vic) was going very well pre-second wave (indeed stellar compared to many of its neighbours) , but trying to get tourism going again has not helped, along with a lack of restrictions. Their peak has not been as high in relative terms (largely because they did so well previously), but things are dragging out for longer. On the world stage Greece remains a good performer.

Tourism has partly played a role for the sudden increase. But echoing government officials, Magiorkinis attributed the resurgence mostly to lax observance of hygiene protocols by Greeks, particularly younger generations who have flooded bars and beaches in recent weeks.


Evidently the Greek Government is wrestling over whether to adopt stricter measures or not. Obviously Vic went with quite strict controls.


1601362073693.png
 
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drron

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Yes they have done better in the Contact Tracing since they switched to the Salesforce program.the pity is that several months ago the Commonwealth offered that to all states but Victoria declined the offer.I did post that info a couple of months ago.
 

RooFlyer

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Yes this inquiry seems to have totally missed the mark, and been too focussed on the security guards rather that why and how hotel quarantine failed so badly. We all know that it failed badly. That was a given.

<snipped>
While I saw much of the news reporting of the inquiry, I am sure there were other questions and angles investigated beyond the few minutes of what's reported. Maybe it was live streamed somewhere? Were those angles definitely not looked at?

The inquiry has yet to actually state its findings (although there is some broad hints being revealed today) - for the most part, its just been taking evidence and statements. Ya gotta grind through all those materially involved before they get to their conclusions, and have those backed up by what was tendered in evidence. We'll see in time what they did look at, and concluded.

I think if the question "why was no one person/organisation appointed to run hotel quarantine?", was asked, the answers would have been, as they were for many issues "I know nothing ... nothing .." <Sgt Shultz> AND the reasons for these types of answers might be related to the following:

Apologies if this has been noted already (not following this thread every day, although I do skim), another fascinating thing recently launched is the complaint to WorkSafe Victoria that it prosecute four ministers, 16 public servants, the state of Victoria, four departments and the Trades Hall Council under the 2004 Act brought in by Steve Bracks. The head of WorkSafe Victoria is Colin Radford, a former Press Secretary to several Labor Premiers. Any citizen can bring a complaint to WorkSafe Victoria, which is bound to investigate or give reasons why it won't investigate. If they won't prosecute, the Director of Public prosecutions can receive the same complaint and prosecute, if they choose. Given that the failure of the hotel quarantine thing is so self-evident (let alone the inquiry findings to come), the hundreds of people that have died as a result, and many more ill with variable long term effects as a result, it is barely credible that prosecutions won't be forthcoming.

Four ministers have been alleged to have contravened four sections of the act, which are:

• Section 26, which — with great clarity — says that persons who manage or control workplaces must ensure so far as is reasonably practicable that the workplace and the means of entering and leaving it are safe and without risks to health;

• Section 32, which says that persons who manage or control workplaces have a duty not to recklessly endanger persons at workplaces;

• Section 39 G, which says a person who is not a volunteer must not engage in conduct that is negligent; nor conduct that constitutes a breach of an applicable duty that the person owes to another person; nor conduct that causes the death of that other person; and

• Section 144, which sets out that if a body corporate (including a body corporate representing the Crown) contravenes a provision of the OHS act and that contravention is attributable to an officer of the body corporate failing to take reasonable care, the officer is guilty of an offence.


The hotels were clearly 'workplaces' for the government-contracted guards and other public servants who were there monitoring.

Fascinating to see what happens.
 
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lovetravellingoz

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Victoria's largest clusters and outbreaks.

I have sorted the table below so that it is in order of the number of cases in the last 14 days.

If you wish to look at all the clusters (there are 5 pages) go the link I will post at the bottom.

1601368663621.png


Sorted by largest clusters.
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For all 5 pages go to Clusters and outbreaks | Covid-19 data in Australia | covid19data.com.au
 
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p--and--t

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Given the clamouring and criticism around the place over using security guards in lieu of ADF, interesting report out of the inquiry......

the inquiry was told in closing submissions that it could not find on the evidence before it that the ADF should have been used or make adverse decisions in relation to the decision not to use the military.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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All States and Territories now reporting

Vic 10
NSW 2, all international quarantine
WA 8, noted yesterday from ship

So Vic still not yet officially passed by any State yet.
 

drron

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Given the clamouring and criticism around the place over using security guards in lieu of ADF, interesting report out of the inquiry......

the inquiry was told in closing submissions that it could not find on the evidence before it that the ADF should have been used or make adverse decisions in relation to the decision not to use the military.
Funny as Dan did acknowledge the PM's offer of ADF personnel for hotel quarantine on 27/3/20.
 

dajop

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Apologies if this has been noted already (not following this thread every day, although I do skim), another fascinating thing recently launched is the complaint to WorkSafe Victoria that it prosecute four ministers, 16 public servants, the state of Victoria, four departments and the Trades Hall Council....
It is interesting discussion, but one thing that annoys me, as one who has spent a chunk of my career as a safety professional, is this endless quest to blame one, or a small number of parties. There are a whole range of contributing factors, some no doubt due to poor decisions made, others due to culture that exists within organisations (DHHS seems ripe for the picking), some perhaps to do with abrogation of responsibility, and other to do with poor oversight and poor preparedness. And various other matters. Even the operators of the security firms - who have a duty to protect their workers, and it's not as if there is a dearth of information about how to deal with people infected with a virus.

For the aged care deaths (the vast majority) there surely also has to be some shared responsibility between state DHHS, facility operators and the federal government department with oversight of aged care.

Even on the quarantine aspect, some writers (in the Australian of all places!!) suggested that regarding Ruby Princess and Victorian quarantine the Commonwealth government has constitutional responsibility for quarantine, but abrogated that responsibility to state governments (in these cases state Liberal and state Labor governments respectively, to ensure we remain politically neutral :) ) - or as the writer notes "second rate administrators" as they are sometimes called by federal politicians. 🤣

(nb link behind a paywall but search for article on google "The buck on quarantine stops with the commonwealth" by Peter Van Onselen).

A complex mess that I am sure will enrich the pockets of many lawyers!
 

Austman

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Funny as Dan did acknowledge the PM's offer of ADF personnel for hotel quarantine on 27/3/20.
True, but I think, from what I can read of the latest reports, the inquiry is commenting that there were many systematic failures of the Victorian hotel quarantine system.

The choice of using private security was likely one of them. But far from the only one.

As I personally noted from my hotel stays when all of this first started, elsewhere in Australia there initially wasn't any hotel quarantine security done at all.
 
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p--and--t

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Funny as Dan did acknowledge the PM's offer of ADF personnel for hotel quarantine on 27/3/20.
Did you even read the quote?
That wasnt the subject being responded to?
Totally irrelevant response.

The inquiry found whether the ADF was used or not was basically irrelevant to the outcome. Nothing in the quote was referring to the matter in your response.
 

drron

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Did you even read the quote?
That wasnt the subject being responded to?
Totally irrelevant response.

The inquiry found whether the ADF was used or not was basically irrelevant to the outcome. Nothing in the quote was referring to the matter in your response.
Please The Victorian Premier on 27/3 is commenting on the PM's announcement of hotel quarantine which was to start the next day.He says there will be private security helped by Victorian police and thank's the PM for his offer of ADF personnel that under oath he says he did not know about.And he knew that day Victoria would be using private security.how is it not relevant?
 
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