Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[OATEK]

Is 1599 cases in NSW another statical outlier?

Seems pretty consistent with the trend to me - but I guess you were poking a different bear.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Is 1599 cases in NSW another statical outlier?

56 cases more today than a week ago today, seems like a pretty flat curve to me, no ?

 

[moa999]

Seems pretty consistent with the trend to me - but I guess you were poking a different bear.

Consistent with the trend.

Albeit I think the Billington graphs are over optimistic about the ability of the vaccine to prevent infections.

It assumes 40% first dose, 80% second, whereas I understand a recent British study was closer to 50% second.

I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers contains to climb towards 2000 by end September.

And Victoria is in track to exceed NSW numbers within the fortnight.

 

[drron]

The Bitish and Canadian studies were 50% for the Pfizer vaccine after 6 months.Not many have been fully vaccinated with Pfizer for 6 months and the figure for AZ was over 60% at 6 months if fully vaccinated.None of the AZ cohort would be at 6 months.

 

[N860CR]

Is 1599 cases in NSW another statical outlier?

Is there a specific number you were after?

 

[jakeseven7]

Is 1599 cases in NSW another statical outlier?

Sure will be in a few months will be the lowest number we would have heard of, although who will be looking at them then who knows…

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Sure will be in a few months will be the lowest number we would have heard of, although who will be looking at them then who knows…

Are you assuming many of the vaccinated would bother getting tested??? Random guess maybe 30% might bother for symptoms/exposure sites.

 

[Pushka]

Are you assuming many of the vaccinated would bother getting tested??? Random guess maybe 30% might bother for symptoms/exposure sites.

I was tested week before last with symptoms simply because I had a specialist appt. Otherwise?

 

[Lat34]

I was tested week before last with symptoms simply because I had a specialist appt. Otherwise?

I have no proof or basis for suspecting there may be a ‰ who are hyper-anxious and test regularly while the more casual /laissez-faire who don't follow news closely just get on with things and think "no probs here, I'm double vax"

 

[burmans]

Consistent with the trend.

Albeit I think the Billington graphs are over optimistic about the ability of the vaccine to prevent infections.

It assumes 40% first dose, 80% second, whereas I understand a recent British study was closer to 50% second.

I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers contains to climb towards 2000 by end September.

And Victoria is in track to exceed NSW numbers within the fortnight.

Other way around I suspect, UK case numbers peaked and started to decline(fairly rapidly) at 75% first and 50% fully based. We are above the first but below (but close) to the second.

 

[TonyHancock]

Other way around I suspect, UK case numbers peaked and started to decline(fairly rapidly) at 75% first and 50% fully based. We are above the first but below (but close) to the second.

It is worth remembering that by the time the UK reached 50% double vaccinated Covid-19 had been circulating widely for the best part of 18 months. Australia has barely been touched by Covid so natural immunity will be considerably lower.*

*Data gathered from The Fortean Times and Viz^ (No offence )
^Data not really gathered from these sources, nor from the BBC or Daily Mirror

 

[Quickstatus]

Some here seem to portray themselves as having an understanding of biostatistics in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
I would suggest that statements such as “statistical outlier” as indicating a very poor understanding of the subject.
Let’s refrain from pretending that we (me included) have such understanding ( unless of course there is training and practice in biostatistics and epidemiology)
Unfortunately we are getting over-simplified information such as Ro, Reff from the mass media and then projecting/extrapolating opinions based on such numbers without even a basic understanding of the subject (edit : oversimplified versions of…)

Most with an basic understanding of biostatistics understand that in a pandemic, Ro or Reff actually sit within range of possible values framed by certain confidence intervals. So Reff is actually never X but actually X but within a range of +y -z at 95% confidence or another range at 50% confidence.
There is also the “k statistic” which is of major importance when trying to understand biological variability or dispersion.

k statistic is not generally mentioned in pandemic data and is a slightly more complex number.
There are several methods to calculate Reff. moving averages is one.
Another one is Reff = R0(1-Pi). Pi= Proportion of population immunised

I’m not saying we should not comment at all, or express opinions based on what is published in the media but I think we should be a little more cautious as to the true meaning behind these numbers.

See here for k statistic - it’s a lot more complex that we would like to imagine, BOTH k and Reff are actually important in analyses of pandemic and the Impact of Health measures such as backward and forward contact tracing.
It is not as simple as it may seem
Cheers!

 

[Quickstatus]

It is worth remembering that by the time the UK reached 50% double vaccinated Covid-19 had been circulating widely for the best part of 18 months. Australia has barely been touched by Covid so natural immunity will be considerably lower.*

Estimates are that about 11% of the UK population have been covid + whereas 0.2% of the Aus population
We cannot really extrapolate opinion/conclusions from UK data into the AU scenario (for this and a variety of other reasons)

 

[TonyHancock]

Estimates are that about 11% of the UK population have been covid + whereas 0.2% of the Aus population
We cannot really extrapolate opinion/conclusions from UK data into the AU scenario (for this and a variety of other reasons)

11% is the reported number but modelling suggests it may be double that. (Taking into account the cases that have gone unreported.) I think we are in agreement though. The point of my post and previous posts, was to highlight that 70/80% double vaccination in the UK is likely to be different to 70/80% double vaccination in Australia, and that could well lead to higher hospitalisation rates in Australia.

At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate and determine the acceptable level of risk for opening up. There will be hospitalisations and deaths.

 

[OATEK]

11% is the reported number but modelling suggests it may be double that. (Taking into account the cases that have gone unreported.) I think we are in agreement though. The point of my post and previous posts, was to highlight that 70/80% double vaccination in the UK is likely to be different to 70/80% double vaccination in Australia, and that could well lead to higher hospitalisation rates in Australia.

At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate and determine the acceptable level of risk for opening up. There will be hospitalisations and deaths.

UK is useful around impact of vaccines given we have been using the same. If there is one statistic that reinforces TH's vaccinate, vaccinate... mantra above it is the number of unvaccinated deaths in the daily figures of the virus spread (being the majority).

 

[jakeseven7]

I have no proof or basis for suspecting there may be a ‰ who are hyper-anxious and test regularly while the more casual /laissez-faire who don't follow news closely just get on with things and think "no probs here, I'm double vax"

There was a study done in the UK, and found a majority of double vaxxed people were not getting tested unless there was a requirement (eg OS travel etc).

I highly suspect the same is already happening here which means the case numbers in both NSW and VIC are probably understated again on another level.

I personally believe Australians are so fatigued by everything and our extended experience over the months gone by that even in the little states, that once they, their family/friends are double vaxxed - that is it.

They have done their part and now are prepared to accept whatever happens happens, what else can you do to protect yourself and let’s get on with it.

 

[jakeseven7]

Some here seem to portray themselves as having an understanding of biostatistics in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
I would suggest that statements such as “statistical outlier” as indicating a very poor understanding of the subject.
Let’s refrain from pretending that we (me included) have such understanding ( unless of course there is training and practice in biostatistics and epidemiology)
Unfortunately we are getting over-simplified information such as Ro, Reff from the mass media and then projecting/extrapolating opinions based on such numbers without even a basic understanding of the subject

Most with an basic understanding of biostatistics understand that in a pandemic, Ro or Reff actually sit within range of possible values framed by certain confidence intervals. So Reff is actually never X but actually X but within a range of +y -z at 95% confidence or another range at 50% confidence.
There is also the “k statistic” which is of major importance when trying to understand biological variability or dispersion.

k statistic is not generally mentioned in pandemic data and is a slightly more complex number.
There are several methods to calculate Reff. moving averages is one.
Another one is Reff = R0(1-Pi). Pi= Proportion of population immunised

I’m not saying we should not comment at all, or express opinions based on what is published in the media but I think we should be a little more cautious as to the true meaning behind these numbers.

See here for k statistic - it’s a lot more complex that we would like to imagine, BOTH k and Reff are actually important in analyses of pandemic and the Impact of Health measures such as backward and forward contact tracing.
It is not as simple as it may seem
Cheers!

I have no idea why these ‘certain someone’s’ are even being listened to in the first place with such fervour…even when they grandstand as experts in whatever they say… take it with a bucket of salt this is just a frequent flyer social media platform , they could well just be high school students playing Warcraft between comments for all we know

Anyway on case numbers in NSW, ACT, VIC and soon to be everywhere…. seems a few people here need to chill and absorb this:

——

Berejiklian said as much when outlining when she would hold media conferences going forward. "Apart from repeating the numbers that health repeats, we have to make sure that we have something important to say," she said.

In other words: stop looking at case numbers for signs of progress, that ship has SAILED.

Berejiklian's week of contradictions delivered something completely unexpected

It was a week of contradictions, as NSW put their COVID winter in the rearview mirror and marched towards freedom to the alarm of medical experts.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Pushka]

Berejiklian said as much when outlining when she would hold media conferences going forward. "Apart from repeating the numbers that health repeats, we have to make sure that we have something important to say," she said.

In other words: stop looking at case numbers for signs of progress, that ship has SAILED.

Berejiklian's week of contradictions delivered something completely unexpected

It was a week of contradictions, as NSW put their COVID winter in the rearview mirror and marched towards freedom to the alarm of medical experts.

www.abc.net.au

Yes but the media, who seem to be the only communication drivers, hate being shut off from their source of sensationalist headlines so unfortunately they will find some likely more distateful, to bring to the headlines.

 

[moa999]

A down day for Vic after yesterday's high (450)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1436822276708593665

And today represents the last day for the popular NSW mini-series - one full of angst, apologies, broken glasses, hard questions, evasive answers and repitition.

And just as it all reaches a high point they cancel it.

 

[moa999]

And a big down day for NSW with 1262 (vs 1599 yesterday)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1436857990062100481

220 in ICU now, 92 on ventilation