Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

[MEL_Traveller]

Which has well and truly been achieved and we have rapidly increasing vaccination rates, so restrictions should be softening not getting more severe.




To an extent, yes. If we let this extreme breach of our basic rights slip, what’s next? As I’ve said before, there is no way government is ever giving up all of these new found powers. They’ve already openly misused QR code data. It’s critical that we don’t allow things to go too far.

Again, we’re talking about three deaths in over 2 months. How much flatter do we make that curve?

The curve is being kept under control because of the restrictions. 'Let it rip' would not see the curve stay the way it is.

Of course government will give up the power. It's legislated and when the declared state of emergency runs out, so does their power. That is subject to both parliamentary and judicial review. And by the people at the ballot box.

 

[N860CR]

The curve is being kept under control because of the restrictions. 'Let it rip' would not see the curve stay the way it is.

And again (I really don’t know why I have to keep repeating myself), this “let it rip” is coming from you. The argument I’ve continued to make is that restrictions need to be softened (not dropped), yet they’re getting even more restrictive. There would be less public outcry if there were reasonable restrictions that reflected the risk.

Of course government will give up the power. It's legislated and when the declared state of emergency runs out, so does their power. That is subject to both parliamentary and judicial review. And by the people at the ballot box.

Highly unlikely. Or we’ll just see a lot more “emergencies”

 

[Princess Fiona]

And again (I really don’t know why I have to keep repeating myself), this “let it rip” is coming from you. The argument I’ve continued to make is that restrictions need to be softened (not dropped), yet they’re getting even more restrictive. There would be less public outcry if there were reasonable restrictions that reflected the risk.




Highly unlikely. Or we’ll just see a lot more “emergencies”

What restrictions would you have released now, particularly interested in NSW as I’m here?
And what would the effect be on the numbers hospitalization/ ICU/ deaths be at our current rate of fully vaxxed ?
What would it do to the R eff ?

EDIT Happy also to hear about the rates of death in the elderly /unvaccinated (likely not preventable) v those who aren’t with the softening of restrictions that you have in mind.

 

[Lynda2475]

Unless unbeknown to me the segment of Sydney journalists asking for tougher lockdowns are wealthy......

Well Lisa Wilkinson had a big rant on The Project on Thursday night and she and her hubby (also a columnist) are very very wealthy. She outright attacked Gladys for not having strict enough rules with zero understanding that more rules doesnt address compliance issues. She claimed to speak for all of Sydney, she was so off the mark, I changed the channel.

Lisa is still able to see her family and go to work everyday, she has no idea of the damage being done.

 

[justinbrett]

Well Lisa Wilkinson had a big rant on The Project on Thursday night and she and her hubby (also a columnist) are very very wealthy. She outright attacked Gladys for not having strict enough rules with zero understanding that more rules doesnt address compliance issues. She claimed to speak for all of Sydney, she was so off the mark, I changed the channel.

Lisa is still able to see her family and go to work everyday, she has no idea of the damage being done.

And not once did Lisa or the project mention how well NSW is doing with vaccinations, which is the most important thing.

 

[N860CR]

What restrictions would you have released now, particularly interested in NSW as I’m here?
And what would the effect be on the numbers hospitalization/ ICU/ deaths be at our current rate of fully vaxxed ?
What would it do to the R eff ?

Limited visitors to homes. Allow outdoor dining to reopen. Allow some retail to reopen with restrictions. How about a few more restrictions on the unvaccinated? There will certainly be an increase in cases, but if our system can’t handle it then we’ve got bigger problems.

EDIT Happy also to hear about the rates of death in the elderly /unvaccinated (likely not preventable) v those who aren’t with the softening of restrictions that you have in mind.

You mean the ones who have been eligible for vaccinations for months, but chose not to get them until they saw a more pressing need. They can lockdown and stay at home.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Without wanting to speak for the other member. What really concerns me is that every additional restriction added then adds more and more time to the unwinding of them. We have been told that restrictions will come off in a tapered manner - that's fine. I have no problem with that.

But instead of the first measure to be, for example, an increase in the number of people allowed to congregate outdoors, it will instead be something like a modification to the curfew rule.

Now some would argue that's just the natural order of things and that's fine. But what really keeps me up at night (irony as it is almost 2am as I post...) is that some of the recent restrictions don't really have any evidence to back them up. They are chiefly designed to make enforcement easier, not to improve the health outcomes. And making a false equivalence that "we don't know it doesn't work" is undemocratic and rather insulting to the people, in my view anyway. Another way to put it would be police state - the definition matches closely indeed.

Of course what is happening in the background here is that the majority of the population are doing the right thing, and are being punished the most. IF it is true that a funeral was held in Shepparton last week with hundreds of mourners including from metro Melbourne, some linked to an outbreak location of interest in the western suburbs, then those people have done the wrong thing.

I feel though there is a very real prospect the government in Victoria will tighten restrictions significantly tomorrow, particularly in Melbourne. Again, the vast majority here have done the right thing - and so the only result anyone should reasonably expect from these measures is a further erosion of trust in the government, and the unfortunate people at the front line who are left to enforce these rules. The long term consequences of a failure of the relationship between the community, the authorities, and the government could well be severe. Playing with it is like juggling lit torches. It could go very wrong, very quick. And maybe the fire was never needed in the first place.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think enforcement and outcomes generally designed go hand in hand? If enforcement is easier, it should in theory end up with improved health outcomes. Does the curfew work? If there's no curfew people can be out driving to work, or to get food, go shopping or exercise... or to a party. With limited resources, how many of those cars can police stop and check? With a curfew, the only people out should be those going to or from essential work, or on compassionate grounds. Easier enforcement should equate to better compliance which should equate to improved health outcomes. Can it be directly proven? Hard to do it when you have a whole suite of measures introduced close together. But we don't have time to introduce them at three or four week intervals to really test them individually.

 

[N860CR]

Without wanting to speak for the other member. What really concerns me is that every additional restriction added then adds more and more time to the unwinding of them. We have been told that restrictions will come off in a tapered manner - that's fine. I have no problem with that.

But instead of the first measure to be, for example, an increase in the number of people allowed to congregate outdoors, it will instead be something like a modification to the curfew rule.

Now some would argue that's just the natural order of things and that's fine. But what really keeps me up at night (irony as it is almost 2am as I post...) is that some of the recent restrictions don't really have any evidence to back them up. They are chiefly designed to make enforcement easier, not to improve the health outcomes. And making a false equivalence that "we don't know it doesn't work" is undemocratic and rather insulting to the people, in my view anyway. Another way to put it would be police state - the definition matches closely indeed.

Of course what is happening in the background here is that the majority of the population are doing the right thing, and are being punished the most. IF it is true that a funeral was held in Shepparton last week with hundreds of mourners including from metro Melbourne, some linked to an outbreak location of interest in the western suburbs, then those people have done the wrong thing.

I feel though there is a very real prospect the government in Victoria will tighten restrictions significantly tomorrow, particularly in Melbourne. Again, the vast majority here have done the right thing - and so the only result anyone should reasonably expect from these measures is a further erosion of trust in the government, and the unfortunate people at the front line who are left to enforce these rules. The long term consequences of a failure of the relationship between the community, the authorities, and the government could well be severe. Playing with it is like juggling lit torches. It could go very wrong, very quick. And maybe the fire was never needed in the first place.

Totally agree. And this is how they lose public support. Measures put in place purely for the sake of "looking tough" rather than having any measured result.

As an example, ABC reported that four men from an "area of concern" were found at Drummoyne at 2am and used the excuse that they were exercising. ABC quoted that as the reason NSW Police have requested a curfew. This ignores the fact that 1) they were outside of their LGA of concern (offence 1) and 2) 4 of them were congregating together (offence 2). How exactly does a curfew assist with this? The police already had valid reason (under the current rules) to take issue with them, so all that happens now is the doctor/nurse/cleaner/whoever will get pulled over (and waste even more resources) while driving home from work. And how does that restriction "stop the spread"?

The restrictions are already amongst the harshest on the planet. The harder they become, the more infuriated people will become and then the whole house of cards falls apart (if it isn't doing so already).

 

[Must...Fly!]

Some data to balance things out a little.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428697953762377731

And meanwhile, the undercurrent of consequence from the pandemic restrictions in Melbourne continue to sadly magnify.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428622558010687489

 

[Ric]

Jacinta as well.

I don't recall Gladys ever blaming Joe Biden for the NSW outbreak.

Sure, you can blame the initial outbreak on the source (maybe, not if your borders are closed), but after that it's on you.

Nor Narendra Modi for that matter.

 

[Tiki]

80% is a decoy number, a nudge. The determinant will be real world ICU/Hospital breaking points. Iceland got up to 93% and is having breakthrough infections. UK is going up, but if you count prior infections, 90% is not too far from the mark. Plus compliance for a round three shot will be another rollout hiccup. Plus age will probably have to be expanded to 12 and up. There is a conflict of interest between Cwth and States about who ponies up outbreak costs and at what point.

The assumption that children will not be spreaders of significance is broken. Geographic containment assumptions are proving to be stubbornly difficult while both sides have tried to wimp out of wearing the heat for mandatory vaccinations and not bringing in a France like greencard. I foresee NSW washing its hands when everyone in NSW has had the opportunity to be vaccinated.

Iceland may be getting cases but no deaths since 1 back in May. Iceland COVID: 9,980 Cases and 30 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[I love to travel]

A question for those advocating lessening restrictions. How many deaths are acceptable to you?

 

[Batterytraveller]

There is no evidence to suggest Australia is looking to curtail that the ability to protest once the health risks are managed.

The feds are very into curtailing the right to protest. For example threatening to deregister charities for engaging in political or protest activity.

We should all be very vigilant that the pandemic isn’t used to restrict freedoms, but at the same time 1000s of people gathering together right now is as selfish and moronic as it is dangerous. On balance the restrictions now are appropriate, but shouldn’t last a second longer than necessary.

Australian government crackdown on charities will stifle political advocacy, experts say

The Coalition has been urged to abandon changes that would allow charities to be deregistered if a volunteer commits a summary offence

www.theguardian.com

 

[OATEK]

A question for those advocating lessening restrictions. How many deaths are acceptable to you?

We accept hundreds on the roads and thousands from flu, so I reckon society can cope with something similar.

How many extra deaths can we accept from diversion of resources away from surgeries/treatments of other potentially fatal illnesses. I was lucky to have elective surgery to remove my thyroid before the first lockdown, and if I hadn't the C could probably still be in there growing based on the continuing backlog of elective surgery.

The many issues around hospitalisation and death during this time of a pandemic are not binary.

 

[hydrabyss]

Well Lisa Wilkinson had a big rant on The Project on Thursday night and she and her hubby (also a columnist) are very very wealthy. She outright attacked Gladys for not having strict enough rules with zero understanding that more rules doesnt address compliance issues. She claimed to speak for all of Sydney, she was so off the mark, I changed the channel.

Lisa is still able to see her family and go to work everyday, she has no idea of the damage being done.

I clicked on the news article and was not able to watch more than a few seconds before changing my mind and closed the page. I really don't know much about her but I can see now why Karl was paid more than her as a peace offering to have to put up with her on a daily basis.

 

[kpc]

I clicked on the news article and was not able to watch more than a few seconds before changing my mind and closed the page. I really don't know much about her but I can see now why Karl was paid more than her as a peace offering to have to put up with her on a daily basis.

I believe @drron has met her on a cruise to Antarctica. They got on very well

 

[mbell1510]

Limited visitors to homes. Allow outdoor dining to reopen. Allow some retail to reopen with restrictions. How about a few more restrictions on the unvaccinated? There will certainly be an increase in cases, but if our system can’t handle it then we’ve got bigger problems.

100% agree with you N860CR as someone also in Sydney. Allow retail to open, if staffed by people within 10km of their home initially. They've stopped publishing retail exposure sites like Woolworths, so kind of says this would not lead to a major super spreader event.
Let's allow people to socialise in small groups in public parks and beaches, much better then sneaking inside houses. Let's also allow no restrictions on recreation and finally outdoor dining for the fully vaxxed. Right now that would be the biggest incentive to get people back out there for their second shot.

 

[Pushka]

We accept hundreds on the roads and thousands from flu, so I reckon society can cope with something similar.

How many extra deaths can we accept from diversion of resources away from surgeries/treatments of other potentially fatal illnesses. I was lucky to have elective surgery to remove my thyroid before the first lockdown, and if I hadn't the C could probably still be in there growing based on the continuing backlog of elective surgery.

The many issues around hospitalisation and death during this time of a pandemic are not binary.

And that doesn't even account for the hidden toll of restrictions and poor education outcomes from schooling, children being separated during formative years from all important social interactions, (both family and friends) and let's not even get into the mental health issues here. Lifeline is reaching its highest ever demand. Psychologists booked out for months. People not taking preventive testing for significant health matters. This toll will last for years. And then there are small businesses.

The deaths from Covid - the emphasis needs to be on their vaccination status and then age and other significant morbidities noted. Not that this advocates that such lives are less important, but that we need to look at more than a blunt statistic. And that vaccination saves lives which otherwise would be at risk.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

And that doesn't even account for the hidden toll of restrictions and poor education outcomes from schooling, children being separated during formative years from all important social interactions, (both family and friends) and let's not even get into the mental health issues here. Lifeline is reaching its highest ever demand. Psychologists booked out for months. People not taking preventive testing for significant health matters. This toll will last for years. And then there are small businesses.

The deaths from Covid - the emphasis needs to be on their vaccination status and then age and other significant morbidities noted. Not that this advocates that such lives are less important, but that we need to look at more than a blunt statistic. And that vaccination saves lives which otherwise would be at risk.

Bit of a catch-22 then? If your psychologist is away from work for a month fighting covid, what happens to their clients? if the medical imaging specialist is out for a month sick, who does the work? Same with teachers. It's not 'manage covid' or 'manage the other health issues'. We'd have covid and the other health and social issues as well.