Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

lovetravellingoz

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All definitional. But I think Vic was fortunate that both MCG and AAMI were under 10 ppl given the crowds.

Or for outside events they were a record.


But yes what places a super spreader is at makes a huge difference. At a party as in Sydney they will quite possibly talk with everyone.

At say Young and Jacksons it may be limited to who is near you.

Key super spreaders really gave Maribyrnong Cluster rapid momentum.

The super spreader at the MCG also created cases at the Young and Jacksons, and 3 other clusters directly. The Barwon Heads Cluster then birthing Bacchus March Cluster.

But the case he created at the MCG was a super spreader who created:
  • The AAMI Park cluster
  • The MS Frankie Cluster
  • The Trinity Grammar Cluster
  • The Westgate Tunnel Cluster
which all combined to grow to 112 cases. The Maribyrnong Cluster was 201 cases and so that one contact was key in creating many of the cases.

By the time the first case returned a positive test at the Airele Apartments (from the removalists), it is estimated that more than hundred people were infected. So that started the outbreak with a bang. Which is a key reason I am nervous about the Al Taqwa teacher who may have been infectious for a week :( School clusters have been significant in the current Victorian Outbreak.

Crossroads had a pub to start with and Avalon too (though I suspect Avalon may have been growing for a while before the first case was found).

1628083606233.png
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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But you didn't have a super spreader event.Sydney has had at least 3.your attitude could well lead to a fall.


I am not sure what you define as a super-spreading event, but I would have thought that :
  • MCG
  • AAMI Park
  • Ms Frankies
were all super-spreading events?

ie all had a super-spreader attend who infected multiple random people. 2 of them being outdoors which had not been seen on that scale in Australia before.


ie Ms Frankies:
View attachment 254530

All definitional. But I think Vic was fortunate that both MCG and AAMI were under 10 ppl given the crowds.
Frankie's was definitely a super spreader.

But NSW had Hoxton Park which was 30+ on Day 3 and unfortunately not detected until about 7 days later.

And then later the 50-person wake (illegal but understandable) which was a massive spreader back into other households in the SW.

Well drawing from the NSW Health weekly surveillance reports, the following arguably are super spreaders events:
- Cafe at Bondi - 8 primary cases
- Food distributor at Marrickville - 16 primary cases
- Hair Salon at Double Bay - 11 primary cases
- West Hoxton party - 28 primary cases

The Bondi cafe, Double Bay hair salon and West Hoxton party were probably not avoidable being within a few days of the first case.

The Marrickville food distributor while infectious from about 5 days later than the first case being identified is probably also not avoidable being a critical workplace.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Well drawing from the NSW Health weekly surveillance reports, the following arguably are super spreaders events:
- Cafe at Bondi - 8 primary cases
- Food distributor at Marrickville - 16 primary cases
- Hair Salon at Double Bay - 11 primary cases
- West Hoxton party - 28 primary cases

The Bondi cafe, Double Bay hair salon and West Hoxton party were probably not avoidable being within a few days of the first case.

The Marrickville food distributor while infectious from about 5 days later than the first case being identified is probably also not avoidable being a critical workplace.


Yes, these events really help to fuel any outbreak.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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lovetravellingoz

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Vic Exposure Sites now updated. The Al-Taqwa College is now listed as a Tier 1 sites for the days of 28, 29 and 30th July. So at this stage does not appear to have worked this week.

The school being made a Tier 1 site means that all 2100 students and 300 staff must going into 14 day quarantine from last exposure.
So by the time you add in all the other household members that will be quite a number of people. If any of them are positive that will then flow out.

Typically all the really close contacts will be contacted (or the parents for the students) directly and will undergo priority testing (ie her students and any staff members that she interacted with).

She was tested yesterday (Tuesday) with the positive result back today (Wednesday).

Given the exposure sites start on the 28th that probably means she was symptomatic from the Saturday even though did not get tested till the Tuesday. Though perhaps that symptom/s was only slight. A three day lag in getting tested could prove to be costly though.


1628087489760.png
She
 
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lovetravellingoz

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For those following the spread north from the greater Sydney lockdown areas it has happened. The Primary School is in the lockdown area but the High School is not in an LGA currently in the lockdown area.

View attachment 254542

Evidently 2 students at the public school and 1 at the high school.

1628088666974.png


1628088778622.png



and which fit with the Sewage Detection earlier in the week for this region, when they stated no known cases, though now there are.

1628089083893.png
 
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jakeseven7

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Resentment and compliance with lockdowns falters in QLD as well as NSW…. People are starting to lose it (despite some people who live in a bubble thinking everything is cool and norma!)

——

Fear, desperation and anger grow as Queensland's COVID-19 cases rise days before lockdown set to end​



Queensland Police have noted increased community frustration as lockdown pushes some businesses towards "extinction" and thousands of cross-border residents face confusing health orders.
  • The state government is trying to convince Queenslanders to consider what they should do under lockdown, rather than what they can do
  • Confusion continues to mount for people on the border and businesses are being pushed to the brink
  • Police say more compliance is needed if lockdown is to end on Sunday


 

hydrabyss

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I wonder if that will change the mind of Queenslands' stubborn CHO regarding AZ. She specifically called out the risk to 18yos of Covid was much lower than the risk associated with AZ shot, but with this report and the death of a 27 yo in last 24 hrs, that statement seems even more fallacious than it did before.
I just hope she does not come back with "I said an 18 year old this person was in their 20's".
 

hydrabyss

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For those following the spread north from the greater Sydney lockdown areas it has happened. The Primary School is in the lockdown area but the High School is not in an LGA currently in the lockdown area.

View attachment 254542
My partner works in aged care in that area and she said there was a number of staff off work this morning. She actually was not keen on going to work this morning as they are having some sort of work dress up day. I just told her to lunch on your own and don't worry if others notice you not joining in.
 

drron

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Resentment and compliance with lockdowns falters in QLD as well as NSW…. People are starting to lose it (despite some people who live in a bubble thinking everything is cool and norma!)

——

Fear, desperation and anger grow as Queensland's COVID-19 cases rise days before lockdown set to end​



Queensland Police have noted increased community frustration as lockdown pushes some businesses towards "extinction" and thousands of cross-border residents face confusing health orders.
  • The state government is trying to convince Queenslanders to consider what they should do under lockdown, rather than what they can do
  • Confusion continues to mount for people on the border and businesses are being pushed to the brink
  • Police say more compliance is needed if lockdown is to end on Sunday


The most concerning thing in that article was that they are rotating registrars from Liverpool hospital to the Tweed heads hospital.There is a Liverpool hospital cluster.
They are not going to have to Quarantine and will be tested every 3 days.i hope they also are isolating at their accommodation for the first 14 days,mask to be worn at all times and full PPE when working.That is what I had to do on 2 visits to LGH during 2020.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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Vic Exposure Sites now updated. The Al-Taqwa College is now listed as a Tier 1 sites for the days of 28, 29 and 30th July. So at this stage does not appear to have worked this week.

The school being made a Tier 1 site means that all 2100 students and 300 staff must going into 14 day quarantine from last exposure.
So by the time you add in all the other household members that will be quite a number of people. If any of them are positive that will then flow out.

Typically all the really close contacts will be contacted (or the parents for the students) directly and will undergo priority testing (ie her students and any staff members that she interacted with).

She was tested yesterday (Tuesday) with the positive result back today (Wednesday).

Given the exposure sites start on the 28th that probably means she was symptomatic from the Saturday even though did not get tested till the Tuesday. Though perhaps that symptom/s was only slight. A three day lag in getting tested could prove to be costly though.


View attachment 254544
She
If this turns out into a cluster that causes another lockdown, then Victorian authorities probably wished they extended lockdown for another 3-5 extra days
 
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nickykim

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Just for clarity, Hobsons Bay includes the whole area south of the freeway and east of Seabrook (i.e. includes all of Altona, Spotswood, Newport) - not just the green shaded portion of the earlier map. 1628077823379.png
 

lovetravellingoz

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If this turns out into a cluster that causes another lockdown, then Victorian authorities probably wished they extended lockdown for another 3-5 extra days

Well for the moment the restrictions that were kept including in particular no visitors to households and mask wearing everywhere including outdoors are looking most prudent.

With the demographic at Al-Taqwa we know that larger households and regular visiting between households occurs. So if it has spread from the teacher to anyone at the school then whatever the situation is , it will have been a much worse situation now if household visitors had of been allowed.
 

lovetravellingoz

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Just for clarity, Hobsons Bay includes the whole area south of the freeway and east of Seabrook (i.e. includes all of Altona, Spotswood, Newport) - not just the green shaded portion of the earlier map. View attachment 254551

Yes you are correct. Here is the corrected area. So it includes where the Traffic Controller's partner lives (Newport apartment).
1628117774323.png
 
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