AFF Member Stock Discussion

[prozac]

It's interesting comparing the Aus property market to NZ and China recently.

NZ is seemingly down 25+% nationwide, not helped by low migration. China is sporadic but some places have seen 50+% falls. Indeed a it's estimated that some secondary cities are structural basket cases with predicted declining populations and loss of manufacturing.

NZ is back to 2019 values. Leith van Onselen gives a great overview on his site macrobusiness.

New Zealand's twin housing crashes

After experiencing one of the biggest booms during the pandemic, New Zealand home values have crashed back to 2019 levels. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, this decline in home values, combined with falling mortgage rates, has drastically improved housing affordability...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

I think the capacity of the building pipeline is maxed out. Building approvals taking too long, shortage of labor, materials, cost of materials etc etc. Classic case of constrained supply vs outsized demand.

Big issue is the burgeoning cost of government / semi-government fees which are out of step with supply, and lack of materials like timber which is now mostly imported since greens shutting down sustainable timber in Australia

 

[cove]

I consider that new immigration number to be quite crazy @drron .
We have increasing homelessness and jammed up hospitals and it is getting worse.
Australia needs a full reset to stop deficits landing on our grandchildren.
Meanwhile the stockmarket roared today so lots of investors had a great day.

 

[SydneySwan]

That is interesting @SydneySwan. Are the buildings high rise or smaller site redevelopments?
The plan to have 100,000 plus new homes built in the next couple of years isn’t going too well from what I am hearing.
We are building 5 in Kalbarri in WA for our social housing at the moment.
I don’t know how under 30s can get a home in Sydney without Bank of Mum and Dad assistance.

Predominantly high rise - 20 to 60 stories in Crows Nest and St Leonard's South.

 

[Quickstatus]

I don’t know how under 30s can get a home in Sydney without Bank of Mum and Dad assistance.

Not Sydney, the Hunter Expressway a new dual carriageway with no tolls built 10 years ago between Pacific highway near Newcastle and New England highway near Branxton in the Hunter valley has opened a huge residential development along that route.

When the freeway opened, I toyed with the idea of buying some residential lots there but instead I bought similar in Wagga near the University instead.

The Wagga place doubled in value after I bought but tempered with the Hunter place which doubled in value before I bought.

Apartment vs quarter acre.... that's the question

 

[Happy Dude]

In less than a generation, the Bank of Mum & Dad has become pretty much essential and not just in Sydney. Without them, the money is just not there. I managed to buy an apartment in Doncaster in Melbourne in 2008 on my own. I saved about 100k in 5yrs, which was about 25%. My 20-something nephew is trying to buy an apartment in Melbourne's west. He's earning a little more than I was but the apartments cost double what I paid and strata fees are around triple. He can't get finance so he'll need to couple up or the Bank of Mum & Dad or he'll miss out and get left behind as prices go up faster than his wage and his savings rate.

Edit: this is more than a little OT for this thread, sorry. Was triggered by the Bank of Mum & Dad reference.