AFF Member Stock Discussion

[prozac]

It's interesting comparing the Aus property market to NZ and China recently.

NZ is seemingly down 25+% nationwide, not helped by low migration. China is sporadic but some places have seen 50+% falls. Indeed a it's estimated that some secondary cities are structural basket cases with predicted declining populations and loss of manufacturing.

NZ is back to 2019 values. Leith van Onselen gives a great overview on his site macrobusiness.

New Zealand's twin housing crashes

After experiencing one of the biggest booms during the pandemic, New Zealand home values have crashed back to 2019 levels. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, this decline in home values, combined with falling mortgage rates, has drastically improved housing affordability...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

I think the capacity of the building pipeline is maxed out. Building approvals taking too long, shortage of labor, materials, cost of materials etc etc. Classic case of constrained supply vs outsized demand.

Big issue is the burgeoning cost of government / semi-government fees which are out of step with supply, and lack of materials like timber which is now mostly imported since greens shutting down sustainable timber in Australia

 

[cove]

I consider that new immigration number to be quite crazy @drron .
We have increasing homelessness and jammed up hospitals and it is getting worse.
Australia needs a full reset to stop deficits landing on our grandchildren.
Meanwhile the stockmarket roared today so lots of investors had a great day.