380, is the end near

[BAM1748]

I didn't note it reported elsewhere on AFF

Forbes Welcome

 

[russ]

Probably because it's on Forbes.com which stops people with ad-blockers. I'm not about to turn off my ad-blocker so will have to remain ignorant of the A380's imminent demise!

 

[BillytheFIsh]

It's working for me with Adblock. Not sure what I'm doing right/wrong.

It will be a shame when its no longer produced. So many amazing developments have been made in F in the last 10 years, only for it to be reduce/cut on so many planes.

 

[BAM1748]

It will be a shame when its no longer produced. So many amazing developments have been made in F in the last 10 years, only for it to be reduce/cut on so many planes.

It's just a matter of time, Boeing would do well to stick with low volume 747 production over the next couple of decades as they are doing now.

 

[moa999]

I wonder if Airbus are working on a cargo conversion
- would provide end of life value which might encourage people to order more
And would likely kill off the 747-8 program (given hardly any passenger variants ordered)

But the reliance on EK for deliveries is frightening

 

[Milefest]

Probably because it's on Forbes.com which stops people with ad-blockers. I'm not about to turn off my ad-blocker so will have to remain ignorant of the A380's imminent demise!

You need anti-adblock

 

[Buzzard]

Bring on the 747-8 I say, even if I am yet to fly in one.

 

[TomVexille]

I wonder if Airbus are working on a cargo conversion
- would provide end of life value which might encourage people to order more
And would likely kill off the 747-8 program (given hardly any passenger variants ordered)

But the reliance on EK for deliveries is frightening

IIRC Airbus canned the freighter version as they didn't have the orders to make it work.

 

[smit0847]

It's just a matter of time, Boeing would do well to stick with low volume 747 production over the next couple of decades as they are doing now.

They're already doing extremely low 747 production but it's not by choice.

 

[juddles]

This is simple, and complex.

On the one hand there is a trendy time right now where everyone focusses on smaller aircraft doing untralong range direct flights. So the "flavor of the month" is with aircraft such as the 787 and A350. That makes perfect sense, TODAY.

But the belief which Tim at Emirates has is that there will be a continual expansion fo world travel, with ever more pax moving around the globe. And with airports close (or at) plane movement capacity. In this school of thought there will be, very very soon, huge restrictions on aircraft movements, and a subsequent absolute requirement for the biggest aircraft.

I know this second view is not driving decisions today, but I cannot fault the logic and feel Tim is right.

The A380 program is not healthy, but the 747 program is far worse. IMHO if Airbus can hold on with the A380's, they will cream Boeing within a decade.

 

[Himeno]

IIRC Airbus canned the freighter version as they didn't have the orders to make it work.

They delayed work on the 380F in order to focus on the issues they were having with the pax version. In response to the extra delay, all the freighter orders they had (from UPS, FedEx, EK and ILFC) were cancelled or converted.

 

[TomVexille]

They delayed work on the 380F in order to focus on the issues they were having with the pax version. In response to the extra delay, all the freighter orders they had (from UPS, FedEx, EK and ILFC) were cancelled or converted.

Not to mention the lack of nose loading meant that the 748F was preferred by multiple operators

 

[BAM1748]

This is simple, and complex.

On the one hand there is a trendy time right now where everyone focusses on smaller aircraft doing untralong range direct flights. So the "flavor of the month" is with aircraft such as the 787 and A350. That makes perfect sense, TODAY.

But the belief which Tim at Emirates has is that there will be a continual expansion fo world travel, with ever more pax moving around the globe. And with airports close (or at) plane movement capacity. In this school of thought there will be, very very soon, huge restrictions on aircraft movements, and a subsequent absolute requirement for the biggest aircraft.

I know this second view is not driving decisions today, but I cannot fault the logic and feel Tim is right.

The A380 program is not healthy, but the 747 program is far worse. IMHO if Airbus can hold on with the A380's, they will cream Boeing within a decade.

I think you have some good points, but I think Airbus can't hang on for the next year or two at the present rate let alone a decade in the hope of doing better.

 

[whatmeworry]

I guess one problem for the A380 is the special requirements an airport needs to meet, to be able to handle a plane of its size.

 

[samh004]

Interesting article.

This quote got my attention:

Meanwhile, Emirates has ordered 150 Boeing 777-9Xs, with deliveries starting in 2020. This jet has the same range as the A380, more belly cargo, just 25% fewer seats (the discounted ones, of course) and has two fewer engines. They’re more modern engines, too.

I know this isn't a Qantas topic, but I do hope they're looking in the same (right) direction!

Probably because it's on Forbes.com which stops people with ad-blockers. I'm not about to turn off my ad-blocker so will have to remain ignorant of the A380's imminent demise!

I just added it to my whitelist as it requested, simple!

It's just a matter of time, Boeing would do well to stick with low volume 747 production over the next couple of decades as they are doing now.

I do wonder if Qantas will eventually be forced to head back to the 747's if CASA doesn't allow them to use two-engined planes to South Africa/America in the most efficient routes.

IIRC Airbus canned the freighter version as they didn't have the orders to make it work.

Yet it now seems they don't have the orders for the passenger version either!

 

[jb747]

But the belief which Tim at Emirates has is that there will be a continual expansion fo world travel, with ever more pax moving around the globe. And with airports close (or at) plane movement capacity. In this school of thought there will be, very very soon, huge restrictions on aircraft movements, and a subsequent absolute requirement for the biggest aircraft.

I attended an ATC briefing in London, and they stated that the overall effect on the A380 was a reduction in the airport capacity. Spacing, timing, turbulence. There's lots of growth to be had without using ultra large aircraft (i.e. using 300 versions instead of 200). Many, possibly most, of the orders they're holding at the moment will never be converted into actual aircraft.

I expect the market will actually get worse for it. The 777X will come on line, and probably the bigger 350s.

 

[TomVexille]

Yet it now seems they don't have the orders for the passenger version either!

Nope. But they had enough at the time to continue development

 

[juddles]

...reduction in the airport capacity. Spacing, timing, turbulence. ...

very interesting factors - that may change things.

It appears the day of the 4 engine jet are truly numbered.

 

[777]

It feels like there's a single factor on which the A380s long term future rests: will Emirates order enough new ones to justify/ underwrite a NEO version.

On top of that everything else is a bonus.

 

[juddles]

very interesting factors - that may change things.

It appears the day of the 4 engine jet are truly numbered.

having said that JB, what is the actual difference in spacings between an A380 and the largest 777s ?