380, is the end near

[jb747]

having said that JB, what is the actual difference in spacings between an A380 and the largest 777s ?

Not that great, but the effect of the large aircraft upon the smaller was what was causing lots of capacity loss. The A380 is also very slow handling on the ground...it can sometimes take forever to get a gap that it can fit into for departure.

 

[moa999]

Would the 'wake turbulence' be potentially lesser for the A380 with four 'medium' engines versus the 777 with two 'massive' engines.

Although if your a 737 or smaller it probably doesn't matter

 

[jb747]

Wake is a function of wing design and weight. I don't think the number of engines comes into it at all.

 

[Simo]

We might see the last A380 in production but we will be seeing them for many years in the sky...

 

[straitman]

We might see the last A380 in production but we will be seeing them for many years in the sky...

The economics will win quickly. If there are significantly cheaper options to operate appearing the 380 will go the way of the dinosaur quite quickly.

 

[BAM1748]

We might see the last A380 in production but we will be seeing them for many years in the sky...

Sure they will be around, but I don't think they will have the longevity of other aircraft.

 

[Melburnian1]

The economics will win quickly. If there are significantly cheaper options to operate appearing the 380 will go the way of the dinosaur quite quickly.

straitman, and yes, 'economics' includes not just the capital cost of each model of aircraft but also the capital cost of airports having to refit or provide additional aircraft gates at terminals - if indeed they can.

I'd love to know of say the busiest 300 airports around the world in how many it is feasible to fit in extra A380 gates.

straitman, Boris spatsky or jb747, did airfield taxiways at any major airports or runway infrastructure now used by A380s require modification when SQ led the way with introduction of this now decade-old aircraft, and other airlines such as QF and EK soon followed? How many of the top 100 by passenger numbers airports have at least one gate that can be used by A380s in revenue passenger service (as distinct from airports like MNL where they may go to be maintained)?

 

[straitman]

straitman, Boris spatsky or jb747, did airfield taxiways at any major airports or runway infrastructure now used by A380s require modification when SQ led the way with introduction of this now decade-old aircraft, and other airlines such as QF and EK soon followed? How many of the top 100 by passenger numbers airports have at least one gate that can be used by A380s in revenue passenger service (as distinct from airports like MNL where they may go to be maintained)?

Yes and I have no idea.

 

[whatmeworry]

List of airports with A380 routes.

a380flights.net

 

[Log0008]

While it is unlikely we will ever see another version of either the 747 or A380, what had me thinking is what about routes like Dubai - LHR, Emirates currently have 6 A380's on the route, plus 2 from Qantas, if say the 777X has 25% less seating, thats 2 - 3 extra flights on that route each day just to keep up with demand and it hard enough to get 1 slot. It may come a point when LHR sees a reduction in passangers with the same number of flights.

 

[harvyk]

While it is unlikely we will ever see another version of either the 747 or A380, what had me thinking is what about routes like Dubai - LHR, Emirates currently have 6 A380's on the route, plus 2 from Qantas, if say the 777X has 25% less seating, thats 2 - 3 extra flights on that route each day just to keep up with demand and it hard enough to get 1 slot. It may come a point when LHR sees a reduction in passangers with the same number of flights.

I wouldn't be too quick to discount the big birds just yet. As you point out, there is only so much air traffic which can physically (and safely) fit in the air and use takeoff / landing infrastructure. In the future we may very well see a move back to few flights on larger birds flying hub and spoke, with smaller "air taxi" type service for those willing to pay for direct flights or flights at times commercial airlines are not offering.

I can't say for sure if in this future it'll be A380's or 747's or another type of plane designed closer to this date. It is however a pretty safe bet that if it is something other than an A380 / 747 it'll be a twin. I suspect the A380 will be the last of the quads.

 

[straitman]

I wouldn't be too quick to discount the big birds just yet. As you point out, there is only so much air traffic which can physically (and safely) fit in the air and use takeoff / landing infrastructure. In the future we may very well see a move back to few flights on larger birds flying hub and spoke, with smaller "air taxi" type service for those willing to pay for direct flights or flights at times commercial airlines are not offering.

I can't say for sure if in this future it'll be A380's or 747's or another type of plane designed closer to this date. It is however a pretty safe bet that if it is something other than an A380 / 747 it'll be a twin. I suspect the A380 will be the last of the quads.

Have a look at the comments from jb747 which include that the A380 actually slows down the patterns and further back some comments by me (from a test pilot) referring to the A380 carrying fuel to burn fuel on the very long legs.

Also have a look at the post I just made re the B747 its nearing production end.

 

[Flying Fox]

More bad news for the A380 from QF (but not surprising really)

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says the airline has no plans to buy any more Airbus A380s, including the eight superjumbos still listed on the order books at Airbus HQ.

Beyond the A380 -

Qantas is now considering both the Boeing 777X and the ultra-long range Airbus A350-900ULR for its post-2020 fleet, especially as the airline begins to redraw its network map around non-stop flights of 16+ hours.

Qantas Airbus A380 orders cancellations - Australian Business Traveller

 

[TomVexille]

More bad news for the A380 from QF (but not surprising really)

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says the airline has no plans to buy any more Airbus A380s, including the eight superjumbos still listed on the order books at Airbus HQ.

Beyond the A380 -

Qantas is now considering both the Boeing 777X and the ultra-long range Airbus A350-900ULR for its post-2020 fleet, especially as the airline begins to redraw its network map around non-stop flights of 16+ hours.

Qantas Airbus A380 orders cancellations - Australian Business Traveller

I'm reading that as.

We'll keep deferring until Airbus offers us a deal on the A350 and then convert the order

 

[codash1099]

Perhaps a bit nearer:

Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal: sources

 

[BAM1748]

It becomes the downward spiral, once the orders slow up and Airbus flags an end, even off into another decade, the airlines who might be considering buying start looking elsewhere. It becomes self fulfilling.

Emirates is the only hope and then not long term (in the airline business) anyway.

 

[moa999]

I think orders will slow for a few years until an engine manufacturers comes up with something new and most airlines will hang onto existing aircraft once lease expires at cheaper rates and refurb.

Ideally an engine that can be shared with the A350/787 to amortise development costs. (The 787 Trent 1000/A350 Trent XWB are somewhat related to the A380 Trent 900 in most dimensions for example)

Then Airbus will spend on a reduced weight wing (if they don't go a stretch) and roll out 11-across seating plus the other improvements that were flagged in the 380Plus package.

The only caveat is financing as I suspect lease rates on future aircraft won't be as good due to the lack of a second hand market

 

[jb747]

Not a chance of there ever being an upgraded version. As much as I like the aircraft, the future for Airbus is the A350. The quads are dead. Their running costs are too high compared to the large twins.

 

[straitman]

I think orders will slow for a few years until an engine manufacturers comes up with something new and most airlines will hang onto existing aircraft once lease expires at cheaper rates and refurb.

Ideally an engine that can be shared with the A350/787 to amortise development costs. (The 787 Trent 1000/A350 Trent XWB are somewhat related to the A380 Trent 900 in most dimensions for example)

Then Airbus will spend on a reduced weight wing (if they don't go a stretch) and roll out 11-across seating plus the other improvements that were flagged in the 380Plus package.

The only caveat is financing as I suspect lease rates on future aircraft won't be as good due to the lack of a second hand market

I wish you were right but I have to agree with jb747.

 

[harvyk]

Agree, the quads are in their death throws. I am also curious what will happen to all the current A380's which no one wants. I suspect that airbus is not going to be the only company which is about to lose out big time on them.