Falling!!! Help!!!

[Warks]

US Dollar Watch

There's been a bit of a surge in value for the Aussie dollar vs the greenback in the past week. As I'm headed there in September I'm wondering whether this may just be temporary (c. US$0.70) before the inevitable fall again so maybe it's a good time to pay for some car hire and hotels in advance. It's six months away so no rush but I guess it's always a lottery.
No one here would know any better than anyone else what the currency may do but I'd like to hear what people have done in the past in times of currency fluctuations. It would have been a lot cheaper to travel there last year when it was $US0.90 or better but the other side is the airfares are now so much lower.

Will keep an eye on it for now. The more money they print...

 

[trooper]

Re: US Dollar Watch

It is a cough shoot of course.....

I made the decision back when it was 62 ish that if it got back to 70 at ANY time before my next travel (17 days in June, 5 weeks July /August) I would book all the remaining airfares etc...(the USD priced ones I mean)

Did that last night. Will also get some more cash tomorrow.

It's a subjective and personal decision.... but you have now got me wondering how to pre-pay hotels and car rental! Fine idea!

 

[Febs]

Re: US Dollar Watch

I can personally see it rising...but that's just my uninformed guesstimate!

Having done 5 trips with the $ over or around $0.90, doing two trips last year with it @ $0.68 and $0.62 was certainly painful!

My next US trip should be in Sept, but that's only 3 days, so I'll just hold out and see how it goes.

Cheers,
- Febs.

 

[trooper]

Re: US Dollar Watch

While last years trips were great (.90 or so) I also travelled back in 99? 00? when it was as bad as .47....:shock:

So I am not about to complain about .67!!! :mrgreen:

 

[Gold Member]

Re: US Dollar Watch

I'm a keen reader of the AFR and other financial rags and the consensus view seems to be that the AUD will devalue against the USD over the next 6-12 months. Some are prediciting sub 60c.

I am prepurchasing all US trip items now, especially while I'm still getting 3 points for every dollar on Earth Amex until end of this month. I know AA does, but I wonder if Priceline allows you to buy buy gift cards!

 

[stryker]

Re: US Dollar Watch

got me wondering how to pre-pay hotels and car rental! Fine idea!

That's what I'd be (and am) doing, trooper.

Car rental - just go to www.airlinenetwork.com.

Can't trust the Pacific peso!

 

[serfty]

Re: US Dollar Watch

As posted in the [thread]falling[/thread], the US government last week started effectively printing more money - not quite Zimbabwe style, but along those lines.

I predict* that in the next month or so, the AUD will not drop below USD68¢.

*All predictions are free or your money back.

 

[cove]

Re: US Dollar Watch

It is very brave to predict the course of the dollar.After 25 years practice I would suggest buying at least half in this 69 to 71 cent range and not get upset if you get the other half at a higher rate.
Economics students would say the US dollar should sink like a stone because they are printing money...but it finally is buyers and sellers that determine the exchange rate from all over the world.We are just pawns in a big game with our Aussie dollar.
Bloomberg.com and Comsec.com.au give a pretty accurate exchange rate guide for big money transfers.For small amounts in cash we book through Travellex.com.au.
I use a Cirrus connected CBA cash card at a US ATM of a well known bank to get extra cash of $500 upwards.

 

[stryker]

Re: US Dollar Watch

I predict* that in the next month or so, the AUD will not drop below USD68¢.

*All predictions are free or your money back.

I'll be monitoring your prediction, Serfty, and will report back on 25 April.

I hope you're right but I wouldn't put (my) money on it.

 

[Techie]

Re: US Dollar Watch

I'm a keen reader of the AFR and other financial rags and the consensus view seems to be that the AUD will devalue against the USD over the next 6-12 months. Some are prediciting sub 60c.

Oh that surely means it will stay above 60c. Those guys have proved again and again they can't predict anything haven't they?

 

[Zoom]

Re: US Dollar Watch

Buy an ANZ Travel Card in US dollars and then use it overseas like a normal credit/debit card. Simple and easy and saves prepaying to get today's rate.

ANZ Travel & Foreign Exchange

 

[Alanslegal]

Re: US Dollar Watch

Just exchanged some money today - and got 67.8UScents for one gold coin. Also exhanged some JPY and got 65.6yen for that same gold coin.

After 10 consecutive days of gain, I'd say 3-5 days of downward trend plus a bigger drop early next month with likely official RBA interest rate cuts. I'm predicting 64-65UScents late April (when I travel) and I would personally think anything over 70cents is like winning 2nd division in the lottery!

 

[Warks]

Re: US Dollar Watch

Good points, all.

The big question is whether it's better to book domestic flights this far out (6 months for me) for the potential exchange rate benefit or wait for better airline deals closer to the date. They are usually better on the shorter timeframe it seems. Unless the $A drops to $US0.50 it may be better to grab the cheaper air tickets down the track I think.

However booking and paying for 3 weeks' car rental may be worth it, provided the rental company doesn't go belly-up in the meantime! I guess that's what the gold credit card is for?

 

[davebernie]

Re: US Dollar Watch

We decided to buy some USD when it was over 95c so it has basically insulated us from the fluctuations wrt spending money....allthough we couldn't pay for our accom at the same time...so we got a worse rate when we did....it all balances out.

 

[Alanslegal]

Re: US Dollar Watch

Currently hovering around the 69.75UScent mark! C'mon aussie D - smash the greenies for 70!

 

[NM]

Re: US Dollar Watch

Just exchanged some money today - and got 67.8UScents for one gold coin. Also exhanged some JPY and got 65.6yen for that same gold coin.

Very well done, Alanslegal! I have never been able to exchange the same cash twice into different currencies. When I exchange cash they always want to keep the source currency .

 

[Alanslegal]

Re: US Dollar Watch

Very well done, Alanslegal! I have never been able to exchange the same cash twice into different currencies. When I exchange cash they always want to keep the source currency .

Yes it was easily done Here's the trick:-

I handed the gold coin to the guy, he gave me some US currency.

I then asked him to give that that gold coin back in exchange for another gold coin.

I then gave him the orginal gold coin, he gave me some JPY :mrgreen:

 

[dexia05]

Re: US Dollar Watch

Will there still be an inflation rate in dollar?

 

[kpc]

Keep an eye on 72.5 barrier

Keep an eye on 72.5 barrier
ANZ Bank international economist Amy Auster also said she expects the dollar to rise in the short term.
"For the Australian dollar to appreciate to 72.5 US cents in the short term is still consistent with our long-term forecasts,'' Ms Auster wrote in a note to clients today.

Australian dollar inches up towards 70 US cents

 

[JohnK]

Re: US Dollar Watch

I am more concerned about the Euro rather than the USD as I am spending ~3 1/2 weeks in Greece in August/September. The Euro is hovering around 0.50/0.51 and it not great value at that exchange rate.

Bring back the Drachma....