Falling!!! Help!!!

[v8Statesman]

What's your take on the falling Dollar!

I don't have any idea why,
but is is giving me the "Number 2's"

 

[Mal]

Doesn't worry me at the moment, with no US trips planned. Next one is in Nov - so I'll be watching closely.

Perhaps the US has started turning the corner in their economic woes and futures markets are seeing Obama as a stable future leader. Fuel is coming down, and the $ is improving.

Then again, I'm not a finance expert, so I don't really know!

 

[v8Statesman]

It's falling against everything SGD, GPB, LYD, ZAR

Each day I dont book my tickets, the cost goes up

 

[Travel Guru]

From what I understand, it's tied in with the drastic drop in the barrel price of oil, and was expected as soon as oil dropped it would.

I expect its a combination of factors including the US economy stabilising, but I believe oil is playing a large role.

I knew I should have paid for my ebay wins last week!! DOH! :mrgreen::mrgreen:

TG

 

[NM]

Its good for people paid in US$ (such as overseas per-diem allowances). The reason is partly due to the outlook for interest rates in Australia. When they are on the way up, the A$ is popular and increases in value, when the next move in interest rates is expected to be down, the A$ is less popular for investors so its value drops against other currencies. So people with mortgages will appreciate a falling A$.

 

[serfty]

Looking at "Alan Kohler" tonight, it seems the price for most major resources fell today continuing a recent trend.

As the Oz economy is seen in financial markets as resorces driven, when you couple this with the almost certain chance of imminent reserve bank interest rate cuts, it's a double whammy at the moment (if not Squared).

I'm just glad I booked over 1K in fares at 96% last week. :-|

 

[Maca44]

It's good for me as I am back to the USA next week, and the AUD has dropped about 10 cents in under three weeks. Can't complain too much, as in 2001 I was only getting 51cents conversation rate.

 

[Danger]

I'll gamble and say I think the exchange rate against the $US will appreciate above $0.90 US in the not too distant future. Three or four months ago a number of economists were tipping parity by year's end. I'd be surprised if this happened but I think the quick devaluation recently will turnaround.

A prediction, only.

 

[Evan]

I always said if the AUD = USD then buy USD big since the market would get spooked and it would not be long before it dropped again.
But its a bit of a pain if you want to book fares at the moment
I am sure it will move up and down and your guess is a good as mine as to what it will do next since it does not really move as you would expect, if it moves somebody just comes up with a new reason that works that day of the week.
E

 

[oz_mark]

Sorry guys. Blame me. I am out of the country at the moment, and true to form the dollar tumbles when I do that. I am back next week, so the tumble may stop

 

[Keith009]

Ugh... and I'd planned to do some major shopping in LA next month...:evil:
Not that it's going to stop me anyway..

 

[simongr]

And guys let's put this in perspective. A couple of years ago the US$ dollar was close to 60c:A$1.

Now it has dropped maybe 10% in the past week - it still makes for bargains in the US. If it falls to 70c then I still find shopping in the US to be cheaper than Oz.

Example - I bought two kitchen knives in the US a few weeks ago and compared prices to similar knives from the same brand here in Oz (they don't have the latest styles here of course) and the knives were around $100 cheaper in the US. When I go back in September I will get a couple more and maybe save A$80-A$90 - not a bad saving in my book

 

[NM]

My share options in US$ are looking healthier than last week .

 

[codash1099]

Three or four months ago a number of economists were tipping parity by year's end.

These were no doubt the same guys who were confident that oil was going to go through $200.

 

[Keith009]

BTW for anyone considering a shopping trip to the US, things there are much much cheaper than here even with currency conversions taken into account. I didn't realise it before as I only look at stuff that's not available here when I'm over there, but I took taipeiflyer shopping when he was down here and apparently there's at least a 10% mark up on everything here. Even at Dan Murphy's. :shock: I feel so ripped off living here now...

 

[Travel Guru]

Example - I bought two kitchen knives in the US a few weeks ago and compared prices to similar knives from the same brand here in Oz (they don't have the latest styles here of course) and the knives were around $100 cheaper in the US. When I go back in September I will get a couple more and maybe save A$80-A$90 - not a bad saving in my book

I didn't know you were a knife fan Simongr, my estimation of you just went up, even if you do hate corporate TA's!! :mrgreen::mrgreen:

TG

 

[Evan]

So getting O/T here a lot... I have always wanted some special knifes from Japan but always been worried how do i import them to Australia ? I assume they are often considered weapons and as such cannot be put in checked lugguage ?
E

 

[dajop]

BTW for anyone considering a shopping trip to the US, things there are much much cheaper than here even with currency conversions taken into account.

Yes even when the dollar was hovering in the range 0.5-0.65 it was still substantially cheaper to shop in the US than in AUS. I can remember purchasing a 3 pack of branded underwear in Boston for what worked out to be about $20 AUD (ER at time ~ 0.6). Made in Thailand. Same pack in Australia ... $55 AUD. Say no more. That's just one example that came to mind, but compare a whole range of (clothing) products of similar brand or quality and there is often a 2x multiple involved.

 

[codash1099]

Yes even when the dollar was hovering in the range 0.5-0.65 it was still substantially cheaper to shop in the US than in AUS. I can remember purchasing a 3 pack of branded underwear in Boston for what worked out to be about $20 AUD (ER at time ~ 0.6). Made in Thailand. Same pack in Australia ... $55 AUD. Say no more. That's just one example that came to mind, but compare a whole range of (clothing) products of similar brand or quality and there is often a 2x multiple involved.

That's reassuring - I was busy kicking myself for not locking in the rate ahead of my DONE4.

I must not to listen to economists.
I must not to listen to economists.
I must not to listen to economists.
I must not.................

 

[Alanslegal]

Read a few analysts forecasting that the AUD should bottom out at 85c before a likely rise to closer to 90-91c by end of year.

I also recall them forecasting in October 07 that the AUD will hit 95c by June 08 - this was very very close.

So I'm having faith in some of these latest forecasts and have my fingers crossed.