General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

[jakeseven7]

A very moving moment at Wimbledon Centre Court. Dame Sarah Gilbert gets a standing ovation.
She is the Oxford scientist who developed the AZ vaccine. Wimbledon
View attachment 251699

Why? it’s not Pfizer

 

[ethernet]

I’m not trying to “disprove” what you have posted.
It’s abundantly clear that you have zero confidence in the AZ vaccine and you cherry-pick data eg. in regards to women under 50 to validate your view point.
And that’s ok, I’m not expecting you to change your mind.

The fact is that the AZ vaccine is one of the TGA approved vaccines for everyone over the age of 18 who is appropriately consented by their GP/Health provider and I encourage everyone who is eligible to get vaccinated.

The .Aus .gov announced today they are rolling out a 'risk calculator' with no further details. Unlike PF I am interested in global statistics for all AZ deaths, not local ones, including underlying medical conditions age sex, had babies and and bloodtype. I also want to see the Operation Research (OR) numbers. We don't know if the Prime Minister is seeking last minute supplies before the election - if he calls an early one. I agree with PF, M and F age injury risk is different.

However the risk calculator, I predict will be a con job. It should be cost/benefit analysis. As airport workers/tip of spear frontline contact people were NOT compulsorily vaccinated, and there are still holes, I will predict the abolition phase/holiday will be broken in the coming months. There will not be enough recommended vaccine for everyone.

The Carrot of sub 40yo vaccinations is job openings and career advancement , over other jobseekers. If they get isolated, you SHOULD have a degree of more movement, and better income security. Perhaps take the vaccinated persons job, or steal their hours/overtime. Your resume may rise, and a big breakout may work to your advantage. Money drives decisions for many. Employers will, going forward, should discriminate in your favor.

The foolish fence sitters and nay-sayers, will discover later, their employ-ability will be less. Bad news for them if they have no savings. I guess Australia will go berko over extended lockdowns.

Alternate strategy for those under 50. Assume if you are 2 hours away from a major city hospital or less, and a good communicator, and think you are responsible enough to detect warning signs, perhaps go for it. Not for Karen's and whinging Wendy's

Thus
Age
Bloodgroup preferably NOT type A only.
Single. Different for a mother with young children.
Figure you are one of the 'never get sick' sorts.
Believe >72% will not happen in au.
Within 2 hours of a first rate hospital (including triage times).
Educated, health aware. Perhaps have someone in the health system.
Have spare (paid) sickleave.
Live in a bad location (LGA lockdowns, fines for not wearing masks, a codeword for lower socio economic locations). But Bondi and quality foodies, proved I was wrong. This Indian variant is disrespectful of the latte line.
You are a lifter, not a leaner, ready to pounce on situations.
Accept you could be unlucky. But if you have private health insurance...

Blood group A is associated with high frequencies in Europe, especially in Scandinavia and Central Europe, although its highest frequencies occur in some Australian Aboriginal populations and the Blackfoot Indians of Montana, USA. Just a wild coincidence AZ is not liked in these groups.

 

[jb747]

Interesting graph on ‘news’. I don’t think it was age specific, but it had the risk of dying from AZ at about the same level as being killed by lightning.

I still don’t understand why GPs are being pushed to the forefront in this. Many people don’t even have a GP. All it seems to do is add more complexity. Mine actually sent out an SMS about my being eligible to get vaccine, weeks after the case. The phone number they gave never answers.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Interesting graph on ‘news’. I don’t think it was age specific, but it had the risk of dying from AZ at about the same level as being killed by lightning.

Exactly right! And plenty of people choose not to go outside during an electrical storm so they reduce their chances to zero!

 

[Pushka]

Exactly right! And plenty of people choose not to go outside during an electrical storm so they reduce their chances to zero!

The next graph is far more relevant to the Risk in just going about your normal daily life though. Maybe just stay at home. Period.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The next graph is far more relevant to the Risk in just going about your normal daily life though. Maybe just stay at home. Period.

Yes, but risk is only relevant if you are prepared to accept it!

Look at aviation… lower risk than AZ but some people won’t get on a particular plane, or airline. In fact many on AFF champion others avoiding certain airlines, despite the risks being lower than AZ! And equally with the vaccines, anecdotal evidence and media headlines can sway people’s view of risk, and the acceptance of that risk.

(And even with the low risk of flying, there are a lot of $$ and a lot of time put in to making it even safer still.)

 

[drron]

Another Novavax Phase 3 trial.Good efficacy.One report of myocarditis which was felt to be a viral infection.As Novavax is not a mRNA vaccine that is likely.as well 44.6% had co morbidities.

Phase III trial shows NVX-CoV2373 vaccine confers 89.7% protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection

A two-dose regimen of the NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) vaccine administered to adult participants conferred 89.7% protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and showed high efficacy against the B.1.1.7 variant, according to a study published in The New...

dgalerts.docguide.com

And encouraging study for vaccinations.80% of people who had Covid over a year previously had adequate levels of antibodies to covid.

 

[jakeseven7]

Exactly right! And plenty of people choose not to go outside during an electrical storm so they reduce their chances to zero!

What part of global pandemic are you not quite grasping....? You just keep on posting the same thing over and over on here.... the virus will come here and spread, probably imminently and will continue to strike people down randomly.

So your justifications simply don’t make sense no matter how many times you repeat them, I’m sorry it’s time for a reality check

 

[RAM]

The next graph is far more relevant to the Risk in just going about your normal daily life though. Maybe just stay at home. Period.


View attachment 251861

These figures that keep getting waved around have no mathematical validity in the way they are portrayed. AKA misleading.

A more valid comparison, but would not do faith in the medical profession much good, would be to compare it with the risks of medical mistakes. Such as probability of dying from an illness/infection/mistake made while in hospital that you did not enter hospital with aka a medical error.

The risks for AZ is the risk from receiving ONE injection not one injection 2 or 3 times a day for 260 to 365 days in a row which is what the risk figure for car accidents represents.

Think of it this way - were there over 1,000 deaths in car accidents reported on any day for Australia in your lifetime ?
25.5m x 2 journeys x 28 deaths per million population > 1,000 deaths a day.

Every other risk is on a 365 day basis not a one-off event. For car accidents that may well be a 2 or 3 times per day coughulative risk. For a taxi driver it is more like a 10,000x risk.

So, simplistically think of someone who drives to/from the railway station 52 weeks/year. Goes out after work using the car 1 night during the week, makes 1 shopping trip, 1 social trip per weekend, = 832 separate journeys.

Risk of dying in a car accident from one trip = 28/832 = 0.03

Risk of dying a single car outing for them using the 'community-wide' figure per annum is nearly 1 / 20th the risk of dying from AZ due to clots.

So AZ is nearly 20 times as risky. How many people do you know who have had a car accident despite it being nearly 1/20th the risk from CV?

Equally invalid, but put that question to prove the point. People you know have driven for perhaps decades, and you know X people, cannot validly compare different frequencies of events without adjusting for the frequency.

The risk of being hit by lightening on one outing is similarly much less risk that that of AZ clots. As could get hit by lightening on any outing made over a year. Say to/from work etc. = 0.4 / 730 = 0.0005 vs 0.5 from AZ clots, or 1,000 times the risk of being hit by lightening on an outing.

 

[Pushka]

These figures that keep getting waved around have no mathematical validity in the way they are portrayed. AKA misleading.

A more valid comparison, but would not do faith in the medical profession much good, would be to compare it with the risks of medical mistakes. Such as probability of dying from an illness/infection/mistake made while in hospital that you did not enter hospital with aka a medical error.

The risks for AZ is the risk from receiving ONE injection not one injection 2 or 3 times a day for 260 to 365 days in a row which is what the risk figure for car accidents represents.

Think of it this way - were there over 1,000 deaths in car accidents reported on any day for Australia in your lifetime ?
25.5m x 2 journeys x 28 deaths per million population > 1,000 deaths a day.

Every other risk is on a 365 day basis not a one-off event. For car accidents that may well be a 2 or 3 times per day coughulative risk. For a taxi driver it is more like a 10,000x risk.

So, simplistically think of someone who drives to/from the railway station 52 weeks/year. Goes out after work using the car 1 night during the week, makes 1 shopping trip, 1 social trip per weekend, = 832 separate journeys.

Risk of dying in a car accident from one trip = 28/832 = 0.03

Risk of dying a single car outing for them using the 'community-wide' figure per annum is nearly 1 / 20th the risk of dying from AZ due to clots.

So AZ is nearly 20 times as risky. How many people do you know who have had a car accident despite it being nearly 1/20th the risk from CV?

Equally invalid, but put that question to prove the point. People you know have driven for perhaps decades, and you know X people, cannot validly compare different frequencies of events without adjusting for the frequency.

The risk of being hit by lightening on one outing is similarly much less risk that that of AZ clots. As could get hit by lightening on any outing made over a year. Say to/from work etc. = 0.4 / 730 = 0.0005 vs 0.5 from AZ clots, or 1,000 times the risk of being hit by lightening on an outing.

I reckon most of us have had at least one traffic accident......

 

[serfty]

I still don’t understand why GPs are being pushed to the forefront in this. Many people don’t even have a GP.

I agree, it does not make sense. However, I believe from day one the AMA heavily lobbied the Federal Government to promote using GPs for vaccinations; effectively it seems. Most appear to be able to bill Medicare with at least three item numbers in the vaccination consultancy process.

 

[Pushka]

I agree, it does not make sense. However, I believe from day one the AMA heavily lobbied the Federal Government to promote using GPs for vaccinations; effectively it seems. Most appear to be able to bill Medicare with at least three item numbers in the vaccination consultancy process.

Dead scared the pharmacies will move in on their territory.

 

[jonboixxx]

I reckon most of us have had at least one traffic accident......

I've had 3 traffic accidents but haven't been hit by lightning.

 

[jeza]

I'd guess a couple of reasons for using GP's would be a high level of trust as well as medical history knowledge. Whilst some don't have a regular GP, a lot do & quite often the whole family will see the same doctor or at least the same GP practice.

There is still a lot of people who for a variety of reason are still hesitant to have the vaccine & let's face it the events of the past few days would not have helped with that. Anything that can help ease their concerns & keep the program moving forward is a good thing.

 

[Pushka]

I'd guess a couple of reasons for using GP's would be a high level of trust as well as medical history knowledge. Whilst some don't have a regular GP, a lot do & quite often the whole family will see the same doctor or at least the same GP practice.

There is still a lot of people who for a variety of reason are still hesitant to have the vaccine & let's face it the events of the past few days would not have helped with that. Anything that can help ease their concerns & keep the program moving forward is a good thing.

I have a GP but they aren’t doing the vaccination and they are not alone so…..

 

[Port Power]

Dead scared the pharmacies will move in on their territory.

Pharmacists already can give the Covid immunisation and are geared up to do as many as they do the standard flu vax.

 

[ethernet]

Another Novavax Phase 3 trial.Good efficacy.One report of myocarditis which was felt to be a viral infection.As Novavax is not a mRNA vaccine that is likely.as well 44.6% had co morbidities.

Phase III trial shows NVX-CoV2373 vaccine confers 89.7% protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection

A two-dose regimen of the NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) vaccine administered to adult participants conferred 89.7% protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and showed high efficacy against the B.1.1.7 variant, according to a study published in The New...

dgalerts.docguide.com

And encouraging study for vaccinations.80% of people who had Covid over a year previously had adequate levels of antibodies to covid.

+1 for Novavax. I think Australia should do an early deal with them, as I know good Catholics who will not take AZ, even though the Pope has said yes. If we can accept known rare risks for one, we should accept seemingly lesser rare risks for another, seemingly more effective.

Australian Bishops urge Catholics to get vaccinated amid push for more vaccine options - The Catholic Leader

CATHOLICS in Australia are being encouraged to receive a COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available to them, with the Australian Catholic Bishops Conference saying it is morally permissible to accept any vaccine. In a document published today, the Bishops Commission for Life, Family and Public...

catholicleader.com.au

Catholics should choose the least morally compromised vaccine – which in Australia would currently mean the Pfizer vaccine or, if it is approved in the future, Novavax.

Perhaps reserve limited quantity for religious persons or a trial for anyone who ticks the 'Religious Box'. The premise below is based on 'lockdowns fail, Delta on the loose and killing again'.

Here is the Operations Research on a back of envelope. We will loose a minimum 4-5 months vax momentum to to public distrust, no matter how we pontificate that is illogical. People will be long covid damaged due to Delta or other strain being unstoppable during Pfizer or Moderna shortages, likely spread by children, and likely deaths, including Catholics of high moral standing.

If we do nothing, there will be many extra billions of dollars in economic damage due to lockdowns. There will additionally be a costly delta learning curve in new leaks. Not many lives are valued over 2-8 million dollars as in compensation cases. 100 plus extra deaths is politically acceptable (See failing to repatriate stranded Aussies). Assume the American $1 Million dollar covid lottery draws are marginally cost effective. Assume Pifzer may generate equally rare below 18yo side effects.

Conclusion: Grant conditional emergency approval for Novavax, that requires a similar risk discussion and waiver. Prioritize for 'stated' reasons of religion, Do it ASAP.

 

[Pushka]

I've had 3 traffic accidents but haven't been hit by lightning.

A friends son was playing footy at his school and was hit by lightning and died.

Student hit by lightning at oval

A teenager is in a critical condition in hospital after he was struck by lightning as storms swept across Adelaide and surrounding areas.

www.abc.net.au

Post automatically merged: Jul 2, 2021

Pharmacists already can give the Covid immunisation and are geared up to do as many as they do the standard flu vax.

not in SA yet.

 

[trevella]

These figures that keep getting waved around have no mathematical validity in the way they are portrayed. AKA misleading.

A more valid comparison, but would not do faith in the medical profession much good, would be to compare it with the risks of medical mistakes. Such as probability of dying from an illness/infection/mistake made while in hospital that you did not enter hospital with aka a medical error.

The risks for AZ is the risk from receiving ONE injection not one injection 2 or 3 times a day for 260 to 365 days in a row which is what the risk figure for car accidents represents.

Think of it this way - were there over 1,000 deaths in car accidents reported on any day for Australia in your lifetime ?
25.5m x 2 journeys x 28 deaths per million population > 1,000 deaths a day.

Every other risk is on a 365 day basis not a one-off event. For car accidents that may well be a 2 or 3 times per day coughulative risk. For a taxi driver it is more like a 10,000x risk.

So, simplistically think of someone who drives to/from the railway station 52 weeks/year. Goes out after work using the car 1 night during the week, makes 1 shopping trip, 1 social trip per weekend, = 832 separate journeys.

Risk of dying in a car accident from one trip = 28/832 = 0.03

Risk of dying a single car outing for them using the 'community-wide' figure per annum is nearly 1 / 20th the risk of dying from AZ due to clots.

So AZ is nearly 20 times as risky. How many people do you know who have had a car accident despite it being nearly 1/20th the risk from CV?

Equally invalid, but put that question to prove the point. People you know have driven for perhaps decades, and you know X people, cannot validly compare different frequencies of events without adjusting for the frequency.

The risk of being hit by lightening on one outing is similarly much less risk that that of AZ clots. As could get hit by lightening on any outing made over a year. Say to/from work etc. = 0.4 / 730 = 0.0005 vs 0.5 from AZ clots, or 1,000 times the risk of being hit by lightening on an outing.

Total fruitcakery. These repeated attempts at "debunking" are just so tiresome.

My interaction with AZ is now over, it was a two-shot one-off. I'll keep on driving day in day out throughout this year and beyond. Over any meaningful period of time it's the car that's much more likely to kill me whether on riskier Tokyo roads or in Australia (especially if I get hit by one of the millions of infant commuters included in your "analysis"). And the AZ will afford me benefits that are impossible to accurately quantify. Because nobody knows what lies ahead, there is no precedent that lends itself to valid extrapolations, and nobody is working with full information.

People who believe they can accurately compare risks at such low orders of magnitude are kidding themselves. Which is fine, it's just annoying and potentially harmful when they do it so loudly and relentlessly.

 

[Lynda2475]

I still don’t understand why GPs are being pushed to the forefront in this. Many people don’t even have a GP

If state run mass vax clinincs has been put in place from day one, and in decent numbers, wouldnt need GPs at all in metro. The planners assumed that people have a GP they see regulalry, but many under 50s do not.