Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

One hopes that the budget has overly pessimistic assumptions about international travel so that if they remain in government they can talk about how they've delivered a lower deficit than forecast but that remains to be seen.
 
mviy said:
One hopes that the budget has overly pessimistic assumptions about international travel so that if they remain in government they can talk about how they've delivered a lower deficit than forecast but that remains to be seen.
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It's very deliberate, you will see this in all that the government does. Bad cop/Good cop. One day, someone in the government, usually a Cabinet member will distribute some bad news, and the PM will correct it and deliver much better news, and If he can't, then the states will be blamed. I'm getting too old not to be cynical about all of this, but hey the punters lap it up, so why not? None of this is by accident.
 
Lynda2475 said:
Looking at population and vaccine choice tNZ are on track to be fully vaccinated at least 6 months ahead of Australia.
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Last I checked NZ had vaccinated proportionately fewer people than Australia. NZ is also behind schedule - supposed to be on group 3 of 4 but there are still people in group 1 not yet vaccinated.
 
Looks like my chances of getting to the covid delayed Expo 2020 in Dubai are well and truly stuffed. I've been looking forward to this event for years now, and saving hard to be able to go. At 71 and with increasing mobility and health problems, I saw this as my last opportunity to see a World Expo on this scale. I doubt I will be able to go to the next one whenever it is. Like the Olympics, they are just getting too big and too expensive for nations to stage them.

I had planned to try and go in January 2022, but I think I can let that dream go now. My only hope would be a travel bubble with Dubai, but that is unlikely. I will have been fully vaccinated by then as I am due to have my second jab in August. But even assuming I was allowed to go, the cost of quarantine on arrival back home would add too much to the trip and would be a deal breaker anyway.

But it is going to be hard for everyone, specially those with family overseas, and particularly elderly relatives. At the end of the day there's nowt we can do about it. But I will be particularly savage with Morrison if all this does not achieve the desired result, and we end up back where we started and the nation in ruins.
 
dajop said:
Alternate non-AFF reality: Australia (other than Victoria) has enjoyed a relatively free 12 months. Freedom to do many things others haven’t been able. The majority are actually happy enough to holiday at home, Australia/NZ is big enough for many. Whilst that view of freedom prevails and there’s an election in the offing, not much will change. Also many do not even have the economic freedom to travel overseas, and for those who do, it’s something fairly recent. Even air travel is a recent freedom for many.

It is disappointing within the constraints that a way can’t be found to reunite families. I’m ever so grateful that I haven’t had that constraint.

But if writing to MPs just forget the whining about overseas holidays. Focus on family reunions - that’s where to gain sympathy, in a way that overseas holidays will not.
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I have a sister in the UK who I haven't seen for 2 years when she was last in Australia to complete her radiotherapy for breast cancer.She has missed all follow up here.So I certainly did concentrate on that.
 
Fools with short memories. When Covid started, we were told there would be transparency of decisions and medical reasoning. Yesterday budget announcement obviously surprised QF, and the grounds - and quantitative and qualitative thresholds hidden from stupid - to be voters. And the surprise ticks the 'drip feeding' of bad news box. The probable reason is not a botched rollout, but rather than the states wanting open air quarantine facilities, preferably paid by the Cwth. The second reason is instant test strips are not going to be used (except on Tennis players and the like).

We started off to save lives (mostly overs 70's and not overload ICU's./ Ventilators ) Job done or doable by August. I conclude a deal allowing states to get out of the hotel quarantine business has been inked. And to import workers - before getting our own home - first. Disgraceful. To justify the business case for 'for profit quarantine facilities', talk of home quarantine must be quashed. I believe people with full vaccinations should get easy travel, and proportionately easy re-entry. Moreso when mRNA boosters for variants comes online. I will pony up a 20K bond of compliance, and recommend something like it. I now would expect QF to lobby for instant and different types of tests. The Singapore outbreak just means it is probable variant breaktrough with apparently low ' in the community transmission'. This suggests travel for some is still doable where NSW contract tracing capability is present.
 
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What's in the budget is all about expectation management. Anyone who does budgets for large organisations knows that you don't work off a "best case scenario", you are more pessimistic/conservative. Then when everything comes in better than forecast, you are a hero. Same deal here.
 
JohnPhelan said:
What's in the budget is all about expectation management. Anyone who does budgets for large organisations knows that you don't work off a "best case scenario", you are more pessimistic/conservative. Then when everything comes in better than forecast, you are a hero. Same deal here.
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That sounds very old school, def not our businesses approach but we are in faster moving industries and aggressively expanding, different life cycle to lots of more status quo businesses.
 
With the supply of Moderna vaccines coming the assumption about vaccination in the budget doesn’t sound nearly as optimistic as it did before, but rather realistic. So hopefully the border reopening assumption is at worst realistic.
 
mviy said:
With the supply of Moderna vaccines coming the assumption about vaccination in the budget doesn’t sound nearly as optimistic as it did before, but rather realistic. So hopefully the border reopening assumption is at worst realistic.
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Is Australia getting Moderna? I hope this is the case, however, I thought it wasn't approved there yet?
 
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Kiwi_Flyer said:
Last I checked NZ had vaccinated proportionately fewer people than Australia. NZ is also behind schedule - supposed to be on group 3 of 4 but there are still people in group 1 not yet vaccinated.
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As NZ are only going with Pfizer supplies are difficult to get and that will limit how quickly they ultimately can vaccinate everyone.

Australia now has 4 supply deals in place from overseas Pfizer, AZ, Novavax and now also Moderna, plus also makes AZ in Australia. Moderna may also possibly manufacture in Australia as well.

Having 4 vaccines also reduces risk from future problems from any one. Whether that be supply, or medical issues.
 
lovetravellingoz said:
As NZ are only going with Pfizer supplies are difficult to get and that will limit how quickly they ultimately can vaccinate everyone.

Australia now has 4 supply deals in place from overseas Pfizer, AZ, Novavax and now also Moderna, plus also makes AZ in Australia. Moderna may also possibly manufacture in Australia as well.

Having 4 vaccines also reduces risk from future problems from any one. Whether that be supply, or medical issues.
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Yes, the bigger risk for Australia is the people managing the vaccine rollout.
 
Flashback said:
Yes, the bigger risk for Australia is the people managing the vaccine rollout.
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There are different aspects of managing the roll out of course.

Commodore Eric Young, Royal Australian Navy, the fairly new Operations Co-ordinator from the Vaccine Operations Centre is looking after logistics and seems to have ironed outa few wrinkles already.

But he is reliant on the politicians to do the deals to ramp up supply, and then downstream the States and others who are managing the clinics, hubs, GPs practices etc.

Supply is the main handbrake at present. GPs can easily ramp up substantially if they get the supply that they can easily handle, and pharmacists who do flu vaccinations can easily ramp up as well if they are granted supply. More hubs to open up yet as well.


Though the other issue is the inertia of people to actually go and get vaccinated.
 
JohnPhelan said:
What's in the budget is all about expectation management. Anyone who does budgets for large organisations knows that you don't work off a "best case scenario", you are more pessimistic/conservative. Then when everything comes in better than forecast, you are a hero. Same deal here.
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Whilst I agree it works in this instance - people (voters) are more likely to curry favour to those who under-promise and over-deliver.

However, if you work for a company listed on Wall St (and presumably the ASX too). that works maybe 2 or 3 quarters (at most), and creates an expectation of coming in better than forecast, and if you only meet forecast you are punished (for sandbagging).
 
lovetravellingoz said:
As NZ are only going with Pfizer supplies are difficult to get and that will limit how quickly they ultimately can vaccinate everyone.

Australia now has 4 supply deals in place from overseas Pfizer, AZ, Novavax and now also Moderna, plus also makes AZ in Australia. Moderna may also possibly manufacture in Australia as well.

Having 4 vaccines also reduces risk from future problems from any one. Whether that be supply, or medical issues.
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That's not correct. NZ has deals with all the western suppliers (ie excluded Russia and China). They opted to use Pfizer for rollout because it had the earliest delivery schedule and also sufficient volume to do everyone
 
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