Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jakeseven7]

I am not too sure any of us really knows what the Government plan really is.

The true plan will be revealed post-Federal election. Let's all have a nap until then, sigh.

 

[dajop]

So the Victoria government Mickleham facility is being proposed but no decision until September:

Merlino names Mickleham pet complex as state’s preferred alternative hotel quarantine site

The new quarantine hub would be designed with portable cabins and be able to accommodate 500 passengers at any one time, with the ability to scale up to 3000 beds.

www.theage.com.au

Although I can’t help but think someone is taking the urine with the costings (and taking the taxpayer for ride) ....

Design cost $15m. ... I may be out of touch if you employed professional services firms @$3000/person/day that’s a team of 100 working on the design for a year.

Construction cost $200m. For 500 pax. You can buy a house and land package for $400k in nearby Craigeburn, so you could buy 500 of these for $200m. They include 3BR/2 bathroom and garage. And easily accommodate 500 families not people. I know there are extra costs for infection control but they won’t be 3BR houses with garages either, and the construction cost doesn’t include land ....

 

[oznflfan]

The true plan will be revealed post-Federal election. Let's all have a nap until then, sigh.

Sadly you are correct, however the Australian Government repeating 'the risks have/will change and reduced risk means changes will be coming' will be on repeat out to Christmas.

The Australian Government legitimately doesn't have the data to even think options to re-open now, but will in the campaigning couple of months leading up to the (I think) May election.

Both camps will not know what direction to take re: international borders, and only importance will be how the plebs vote. Once election won this may chance very very quickly.

 

[Lynda2475]

Not publishing the plan will likely lose the current Australian Government the election, then if the states are anything to go by we will be looking at more severe restrictions as the Labor run states have had the worst and most frequent lockdowns and least pragmatism to accepting any risk.

 

[hb13]

So the Victoria government Mickleham facility is being proposed but no decision until September:

Merlino names Mickleham pet complex as state’s preferred alternative hotel quarantine site

The new quarantine hub would be designed with portable cabins and be able to accommodate 500 passengers at any one time, with the ability to scale up to 3000 beds.

www.theage.com.au

For all of us looking for any sign of predictions/plans of when international travel resumes, this article says:

"The Andrews government expects travellers to be subject to quarantine upon arrival in Australia for the next two to three years".

So 2024/2025 for international borders to open up.....

 

[Flashback]

Which is why I predicted the 12th of Never. Our government is no longer reacting rationally and the whole thing just leaves me despondent. There are all kinds of foul diseases out there, that we accept the risk for when we travel, and vaccination has always meant that we could travel and return free of quarantine. I'm old enough to have been required to get smallpox vaccine in the mid 1970s when travelling to Asia - get the vaccine, no need to quarantine on return. I just don't get the reluctance to open up after vaccination - people need hope and incentive, and it's just not there.

And now, 2 more people 50+ die after being vaccinated (I know, correlation not causation), being investigated now for links to the vaccine. This is why people are hesitating.
Review launched after two men die days after receiving COVID-19 vaccination

Couldn't agree more here, I'm travelling soon to countries where both Yellow Fever and Ebola are a problem and even with a recent Ebola outbreak it's just not a concern.

I thought that non-Aussie immediate family members (eg wife, children) were allowed in? I know they were at one point, but perhaps that changed somewhere along the line?

Unfortunately not, it's never been the case. You need to a) apply for an exemption b) apply for your usual visa.

So the Victoria government Mickleham facility is being proposed but no decision until September:

Merlino names Mickleham pet complex as state’s preferred alternative hotel quarantine site

The new quarantine hub would be designed with portable cabins and be able to accommodate 500 passengers at any one time, with the ability to scale up to 3000 beds.

www.theage.com.au

Although I can’t help but think someone is taking the urine with the costings (and taking the taxpayer for ride) ....

Design cost $15m. ... I may be out of touch if you employed professional services firms @$3000/person/day that’s a team of 100 working on the design for a year.

Construction cost $200m. For 500 pax. You can buy a house and land package for $400k in nearby Craigeburn, so you could buy 500 of these for $200m. They include 3BR/2 bathroom and garage. And easily accommodate 500 families not people. I know there are extra costs for infection control but they won’t be 3BR houses with garages either, and the construction cost doesn’t include land ....

PS consultants charging only $3k/day (~£1500)? Cheap! Hook me up! I'd expect the rate to be higher, in the UK at least, it seems well below market rates.

 

[Pushka]

For all of us looking for any sign of predictions/plans of when international travel resumes, this article says:

"The Andrews government expects travellers to be subject to quarantine upon arrival in Australia for the next two to three years".

So 2024/2025 for international borders to open up.....

Then why bother getting vaccinated in Australia.

 

[hb13]

Then why bother getting vaccinated in Australia.

I've spoken to a few friends and family over the past week who have said the same thing. "Why bother when we won't be allowed out for years and when we are, we will need to blow our budget on quarantine".

International travel for Australia will pretty much die with this.

 

[bcworld]

Then why bother getting vaccinated in Australia.

I think the suggestion is that this is the length of time it will take for some countries to become sufficiently vaccinated. So it could be that unvaccinated travellers will be permitted to travel to Australia but be subject to quarantine.

 

[dajop]

PS consultants charging only $3k/day (~£1500)? Cheap! Hook me up! I'd expect the rate to be higher, in the UK at least, it seems well below market rates.

OK might be out of kilter, I'd assumed that on average wouldn't be paying any more than, say a partner at KPMG?

KPMG charges federal government up to 50pc more than NSW government

The federal Department of Human Services has agreed to daily rates for KPMG professionals that are up to 53 per cent more than the maximum rates the big four consulting firm can charge the NSW government.

www.afr.com

So maybe $6000/day? Even then that would be 50 people for a year designing the facility (although there will be other expenses as well, for things like geotech work etc). Feels like an episode of Utopia.

 

[Flashback]

OK might be out of kilter, I'd assumed that on average wouldn't be paying any more than, say a partner at KPMG?

KPMG charges federal government up to 50pc more than NSW government

The federal Department of Human Services has agreed to daily rates for KPMG professionals that are up to 53 per cent more than the maximum rates the big four consulting firm can charge the NSW government.

www.afr.com

So maybe $6000/day? Even then that would be 50 people for a year designing the facility (although there will be other expenses as well, for things like geotech work etc). Feels like an episode of Utopia.

That sounds about right

 

[dajop]

For all of us looking for any sign of predictions/plans of when international travel resumes, this article says:

"The Andrews government expects travellers to be subject to quarantine upon arrival in Australia for the next two to three years".

So 2024/2025 for international borders to open up.....

That doesn't mean every traveller will be subject to quarantine. There could be stratification of risk based on where the traveller had been in previous 2-3 weeks and vary by vaccination status as well.

 

[Kiwi_Flyer]

Then why bother getting vaccinated in Australia.

Because if there is another outbreak in the community you'll (a) be less likely to get it, (b) be less likely to suffer severe effects, and (c) have less chance of passing it on to friends/family who might be more vulnerable than you.

 

[oznflfan]

Because if there is another outbreak in the community you'll (a) be less likely to get it, (b) be less likely to suffer severe effects, and (c) have less chance of passing it on to friends/family who might be more vulnerable than you.

That's what lockdowns, social distancing, face masks do. Again, whats the point in vaccination? Without open borders I won't bother getting vaccinated. My chance of dying with sealed borders seems higher if I take the vaccine.

We need concrete confirmation of open borders to take the vaccine. The Australian Government knows the pushback they'll get for 2B.

 

[Pushka]

I think the suggestion is that this is the length of time it will take for some countries to become sufficiently vaccinated. So it could be that unvaccinated travellers will be permitted to travel to Australia but be subject to quarantine.

I truly hope that is the case. And I guess it also depends on the definition of "open". To me a home quarantine and being vaccinated and able to travel overseas for family (not sure about vacations at this stage) is "open".

Post automatically merged: Apr 29, 2021

Because if there is another outbreak in the community you'll (a) be less likely to get it, (b) be less likely to suffer severe effects, and (c) have less chance of passing it on to friends/family who might be more vulnerable than you.

Well, having this discussion this morning. If vulnerable family have been vaccinated then I might pass it on but they will be protected from severe disease.

 

[oznflfan]

Not publishing the plan will likely lose the current Australian Government the election, then if the states are anything to go by we will be looking at more severe restrictions as the Labor run states have had the worst and most frequent lockdowns and least pragmatism to accepting any risk.

You are right, but boy would they like to totally ignore the issue, If they glossed over the border issue (likely be one of if not main electoral issue - and media will hound them on it) we will look like an idiot, out of touch, dismissive, devious, or all of these.

 

[Flashback]

That doesn't mean every traveller will be subject to quarantine. There could be stratification of risk based on where the traveller had been in previous 2-3 weeks and vary by vaccination status as well.

This seems to be a good halfway house

Entry requirements - Liberia travel advice

Latest FCDO travel advice for Liberia including on entry requirements, safety and security and local laws and customs.

www.gov.uk

Slightly tongue in cheek, but interesting to see what each country has in place.

 

[hb13]

You are right, but boy would they like to totally ignore the issue, If they glossed over the border issue (likely be one of if not main electoral issue - and media will hound them on it) we will look like an idiot, out of touch, dismissive, devious, or all of these.

Is the border issue a big one? I'm not in Aus, so I'm genuinely asking. I thought the vast majority of the Australian population wants the borders closed? If that is the case, does the election even matter? Libs and Labour both know this, and are likely to just keep borders closed either way?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Which will hopefully be filled with flights from elsewhere still many trying to get home from the UK or EU.

There's already spare capacity ex the UK - SQ is showing at least 4 seats available on 8 and 9 May and again 18 and 19 May, into Adelaide (I searched for 2 adults and 2 children to check the fares). Sydney of course comes up with nothing.

If they are going to send over whole planes, they should probably go to cities where there are currently no flights at all rather than markets with flights that have spare seats.

 

[oznflfan]

Is the border issue a big one? I'm not in Aus, so I'm genuinely asking. I thought the vast majority of the Australian population wants the borders closed? If that is the case, does the election even matter? Libs and Labour both know this, and are likely to just keep borders closed either way?

I'm thoroughly in throw open the border camp (when vaccinated and safe to travel) so I might not be standard audience. For general public not so much seal the borders tight, as opposed to keep us safe and let us do whatever we want whenever we want it domestically, and I can see that point.

Unfortunately we are not the 1950's and can't be self sufficient and barbed wire our shores, We are a global connected species now.

If the rest of the world (first and second world) travelling and enjoying themselves, little in way of death and oversea's media confirming this, plus said oversea's media making pariah out of us Aussies, there will be pressure to open.

Danger is both politicians early 2022 both state we will look at borders once more data come in, trouble is data will pile in by end of this year as to vaccine and opening safety.